04/07/15 

2.05 Leicester Meandmyshadow

Ideal Cond. 6f, Good to Firm, 1-15 days 

Form in Cond. 1,1,4,1,2,2,1,8,1,6,5,3,1, 2, 9, 2 (2/52, 11 places outside) 

Positives. She ran a cracker last time - I am not sure what the ground was, somewhere between good and good to firm I believe, agonisingly going down by a neck. She has her conditions again and is 2/3 over the CD. She doesnt have to lead but is drawn to come up the near side rail I believe. There is other pace in the race drawn low but she doesnt have to lead. Hopefully she can lead up this stiff finish and not be caught, she is handicapped to go well and deserves to get her head in front again. 

Negatives. None really. The concern would be getting into a fight with other front runners and using too much energy, but she doesn't have to lead and we will have to rely on the jockey using his head. 

My Verdict 1 point win (4/1 general) 

***

3.00 Beverley Bondi Beach Boy 

Ideal Cond. Beverley; 5f; Class 4<£6k (also good Thirsk) 

Form in Cond. 1,1,1,1,1 

Positives. Well...this is a C4 race but it is worth 6k+. His record above C4£6k+ at the moment is 0/7, 0 places. However he has placed over CD in C3. I am conscious that his course record is 5/7, 6 places - and horses with records like that can make apparent class ceilings irrelevant. The fact he has only been out the places once in 7 runs here means I want to have something on, even though usually finding something too good at this level. Back to his last winning mark and the jockey is 2/8 on him. Unlike a lot of horses in the race he has won a handicap with 16+ runners in. He is also 1/5 in the 14/1 to 20/1 price range. 

Negatives. Bar the class factor, his draw isnt great here,(well it is awful) almost being the widest of the lot. It very much depends how he breaks.That makes it tricky but you never know in races like this and he, and a few other high drawn horses, like to get on with things. It is not like he is a 2/1 shot either. 

My Verdict. 1/2 point EW 16/1 (general) 4 places. The 4 places means I have plumped for an EW bet, rather than a 1/2 point win. He usually runs well here and, while there are a few negatives, given that course record he is worth a play at 16s in my opinion. It is clearly a competitive race for the grade but he should run his race and has been in form. He may be compromised by the draw but I am happy to take a chance at the odds. 

Imperial Legend... also runs in this race from a wide draw but does not have the course form like BBB. He is 0/30, 5 places outside of his conditions, which to date includes a class ceiling. He is handicapped to go well at some point and this is becoming his time of year. He is 0/8, 4 places in C4 £6k+, 0/6, 1 place 16 runners+, and 0/9, 0 places when 14/1 or above. His record in all C4 races is now 1/20, 8 places, as opposed to 4/10 in C5/6. He is coming into form so a big run would not be a total shock but so far has always found a few too good at this level, and doesnt have any placed form above C4 (unlike BBB). I am am happy to leave him, and hopefully he drops down in class soon and into his ideal conditions. 

***

Non-Qualifiers 

-Verus Delicia (2.05 Leic) 0/14, 3 places when returning after 15 days, also yet to win above OR60 (OR69 here) 

-Gabrials King (2.50 Hay) Unless some miraculous drying ,the ground wont be Good to Firm

-Chosen Character (5.10 Haydock) 0/9, 2 places C2, 1/25, 10 places 16-60 days (7/20, 1-15 days) 

-Fast Shot (5.10 Hayd) Unproven over 7f, 0/5, 1/24, 9 places 16-60 days (6/17, 8 places 8-15 days) 

-Fazza (8.35 Carlisle) 1/15, 1 place Good to Firm, 0/10, 1  place when running further than 8f. 

***

All the best 

Josh