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03/07/15
7.15 Beverley Relight My Fire
Ideal Cond. Good to Firm; 1-15 days rest; 1-11 runners; 7f or 7.5f Form in Cond. 2,1,1,1,7,6,1 (1/20, 4 places outside)
Positives. He won last time out after a break of 50 days, having previously been 0/10, 2 places when returning after 15. However, he now makes a quick return here and has plenty in his favour. He has his conditions, is 4/11, 5 places over CD, 4/15 under this jockey. Although he is better at C5 he has won at C4. He is 4/5 when under 4/1.
Negatives. Well he is now on a career high mark, 2lb above his highest. However he is only a 5yo and it would be dangerous to assume just yet that a mark like this is beyond him.
My Verdict. 1 point win (3/1 general)
***
8.30 Haydock Heartsong
Ideal Cond. Originally Soft, 1-16 days. Also now Class 5. Form in Cond. Class 5... 1,7,1,2,1,2
Positives. Well i did think he was a soft ground horse, 4/6 with his form on other going 0/14, 1 place. However, at Brighton which was Good, Good to Firm this season he went down by a shoulder, and that was in C5. His record when dropping into that class now looks decent. All wins have been when returning within 16 days but he has ran well in this class outside of that, a decent second after 27 days. So, there are a couple of angles in, and we will want to be on him when on soft again. There has been rain at the track today which will have taken the sting out, and there is plenty in his favour. 3/3 when 6/1 or under, has won up to 12/1. 1/3 under this jockey and has won off OR78.
Negatives. Well this is going to be his second run over 7f and as yet no real ideal if he stays. The trainer clearly thinks this is worth a go. So, he has yet to prove he doesnt stay, and it is a small field with no confirmed front runners - so if he is going to stay it will be in a race such as this where there could be a slow pace. He does take on a couple of more unexposed horses here.
My Verdict 1 point win 6/1 (general) His form when dropping into this class is very consistent and his trainer is in decent form too. Hopefully he runs his usual consistent race at this level. If it isn't tomorrow I dont think we need to worry about him winning in C5 again, or on soft, at some point in the future.
*** Non Qualifiers.
-Slip Sliding Away (2.20 Sand) - Goodwood/C4 specialist to date -Dont Call Me (2.30 Donc) - running in a claimer so is a no bet, 1/9 in non handicaps, if this were a handicap he would be a qualifier on his conditions, he is even money. -Green Howard (3.35 Donc) 0/8, 1 place Good to Firm, 0/18, 5 places above C4. -Kalk Bay (3.35 Donc) Won last time out, first win outside month august, but has now also confirmed a profile of 8-15 days, C4 as well. 0/7, 0 places in C3 (tomorrow), 0/14, 2, places when returning 16-60 days. Clearly in form but needs to prove his class.
*** Josh
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