Hello Friend
Another brilliant run for our money and another frustrating second place at 20/1, backed into 10/1 and then back out to 18/1 sp. Those who got 20/1 won 1.5 points profit on the race betting 1/2 a point EW. So, instead of around 33 points profit we remain static on +11 points. This is a game of fine margins but if the horses continue to run this consistently at big prices we should do well long term, although it would have been nice if one of them had held on!
Onto tomorrow where we face a dilemma...
2.40 Hamilton Economic Crisis
Ideal Cond. Hamilton; 5f or 6f; Class 5 or below; OR70 or below; Good to Soft or worse
Form in Cond. 1,1,3,1,1,1, 3 , 1 (0/39, 9 places outside this)
Positives. Running at her favourite course, and in the right class. She is in form.
Negatives. A concern over the going. It is officially Good (Good to Soft in places) indicating it is on the easy side. There is also some rain forecast although whether this arrives in time for the race I don't know. Her record on Good is 0/21, 4 places. She is best over 5f, her 6f record at the track is 1/12, 3 places. She has yet to win from a mark above OR67, runs off OR70 here - however that win off OR67 was by a comfortable 2.5 lengths, and I dont think this mark is insurmountable.
My Verdict. 1/2 point win 13/2 (general)
Well the dilemma is that it could not be soft enough -(but the good to soft in brackets makes me wary) and that she could be a couple pounds too high. However, course specialists in particular can defy any doubts and there have been a few profile horses winning off career high marks aged 8+ when getting their ideal conditions. She has won in soft over 6f here and stayed on really well that day. Official going descriptions can be misleading at the best of times and given she has won for us already this season, I am happy enough to risk half a point on her winning again. The niggles over the ground and OR, and trip were just enough to temper my enthusiasm for a 1 point win bet - but at the same time the fact there could be some juice in the ground and her general consistency at the track meant I personally had to have something on.
***
Horses running tomorrow in Flat Turf Handicaps that do not qualify:-
- Chocamoca + Divertimenti (5.15 Thirsk)
- Opt Out (5.45 Thirsk)
***
All the best, Josh
| 