Hello Friend Nearly a brilliant day thanks to Mercers Row but it was not to be. He looked likely to win at 12/1 as he burst through but was caught late on and went down by a neck. There was something inevitable as the red silks of the Fahey horse loomed up on the outside. Frustrating. Meetings Man was disappointing and maybe he does need further now. One subscriber emailed saying that they did not back him because of the distance concern, and that I should review the profile. In a way this highlights the point of this approach. My Verdict is exactly that and I judged that at 18/1 I was happy to back him for 1/2 point, despite the feeling that maybe he needed further these days, although he won over 10f in 2013. With the information available this subscriber deemed it a no bet. As it happened I lost £10 on him, which is 1/2 a point for me. This service/approach will be publicly judged on the My Verdict bets, 1 point win bets when a horse has his conditions, and I am also tracking them EW. But at the same time I have tried to provide enough information to allow those of you who do not want to follow my bets exactly the opportunity to make your own staking decisions. It is my job to keep on top of the horses and their profiles and update them when necessary. This approach is not static and that is one of its benefits, with all team members under constant review plus new horses forming profiles. *** 4 other horses ran today outside of their conditions. 3 of them lost. Tom Sawyer won at 6/1 (the biggest he ever was I think), having been 0/20. 4 places outside of ideal conditions before today. One subscriber emailed asking if I could list all of the profile horses running that day outside of their conditions. This seems reasonable and I will start from today. I will simply list the horse and race time. You can use the document to check them and see why they are not selections, as well as any notes I have made. This particular subscriber is interested in laying the shorter priced selections. As ever I am open to your suggestions on how to improve your experience, as well as any feedback. Clearly finding some more winners is at the top of that list! ...so.. onto tomorrow...
26/06/15 3.20 Redcar Broctune Papa Gio Ideal Cond. Redcar; 7f/8f; Class 5 or below; OR67 or below;
Good or better Form in Cond. 2,1,1,1,2,2,1,5,4,1
(1/32, 8 places outside of this) Positives. Has his ideal conditions and has a mark he can win from. He is also 2/10 in the 14/1-20/1 range (0/11, 2 places above this) which indicates that he doesn't have to be strong in the market to perform. His run style is also versatile. Negatives. None from a profile or race conditions perspective. Arguably he isn't in great form although excuses could be made for all of his 3 recent runs and you can never be sure when a horse is truly out of form or is running to get to a mark they can be competitive from. My Verdict. 1/2 point EW 20/1 (BetV, William H) 14/1-16/1 general. My general instinct is to back everything to win only but 20/1 EW is still a decent return if he does win and is also a small profit if he places. Hopefully a return to his ideal conditions sparks him back to life.
*** Profile Horses running outside of their ideal conditions:- 4.50 Redcar Bondi Beach Boy Imperial Legend
*** That is all for tomorrow, good luck, Josh
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