Hello Friend
23/06/15
4.30 Brighton Byrd in Hand
Ideal Cond. Brighton, Class 6, OR60 or below Form in Cond. 2,1,2,6,8,2,2,1,4,1 (1/30, 10 places outside)
Positives. Fallen to a mark of OR55, is 2/8, 4 places over CD, all wins have been with 11 or fewer runners as well. He is also 2/9, 7 places in turf handicaps under this jockey. Has won on everything from Good to Firm to Heavy.
Negatives. From a profile perspective and suitability to race conditions there are none.
My Verdict. 1 point win 6/1 (general) He rarely runs a bad race here and a return back to his fav venue should spark him back into life. He is handicapped to go close and hopefully he can add another win. Those priced under 10/1 continue to give us a run for our money and hopefully he can be another.
*** Non Qualifiers:-
- Relight My Fire (4.45 Bev)
- Tom Sawyer (5.50 Leic)
- Golden Jubilee (7.20 Leic)
***
It wouldn't be right for me to sign off without mentioning Hallstat and (to a lesser extent) Windforpower who both won at decent prices, the former beating our main hope of the day to rub salt into the wound. That was the first time that has happened I think (a non qualifier beating a qualifier) and I hope it doesn't happen again for some time as that is about as frustrating as it gets with this approach.
Now horses will win outside of their conditions as we have seen, and the point here is to try and predict when we think they will run well, based on past performance, and back them accordingly. Hallstat was previously 0/26, 3 places away from Nottingham in turf handicaps so it was hard to predict him running well anywhere else, and he was sent off at 9/1 (previously 0/14, 0 places above 8/1). Windforpower was also relatively unfancied at 12/1 and was 0/35, 9 places away from his fav courses before today. Again it was hard to predict that he was going to win today. I found today frustrating, and even more so as we are in a bit of a rut, but hopefully they can both also win for us when returning to the usual scenes of their crimes. With Dr Irv we did at least comprehensively beat the market and it was another selection under 10/1 to go close. With any luck a few more will start going in soon.
*** All the best, Josh
|
