Hello Friend

Fathom Five was a non-runner and the ground was to firm for Heartsong. 9 profile horses ran today outside of their ideal conditions and all were beaten.


22/05/15

8.00 Pontefract Teetotal

Ideal Cond. Pontefract, 6f, 1-11 runners
Form in Cond. 1,8,1,1,6 (1/24, 8 places outside this)

Positives. Has his conditions and is handicapped to win. Has won off OR71, now OR68. His profile for the race conditions are fine, bar a question over the going.

Negatives. The official going is Good (Good to firm in places). All wins on Good and Good to Soft. 0/8, 2 places in handicaps on Good to Firm. He could also be a 'money horse' or at least the market is a good pointer to his chance. He is 0/17, 4 places when priced over 8/1.

My Verdict. 1/2 point EW (16/1 - 25/1) There are some niggles there but he will win again at Pontefract over 6f at some point and I cant ignore his form here. Yes he does run the odd clunker however he looks a decent EW bet at the odds given his liking for the CD and his handicap mark. Hopefully it doesnt dry out too much and worse case he is placed.


8.10 Musselburgh Merchant of Dubai

Ideal Cond. 1-7 runners; Right-Handed; Class 2<£20k or below

Form in Cond. 1,5,1,1,6,2,1,6 (1/33, 11 places outside of this)

Note:The eagle eyed among you will notice that there are more than 7 runners in this race. My Notes on the horse flag his form at Musselburgh over 1m6f, and I will update the main guide accordingly. Indeed they are the only conditions where he has won in a field with more than 7 runners.

His form over Course and Distance, in handicaps, reads... 1,1,2,1,2

My Verdict: 1/2 point EW 10/1. I cannot ignore CD figures like that even though he is best in smaller fields. He likes to track leaders or push the pace and it is easier to dictate and hold on in smaller fields. He went from the front last time and there are no other front runners in the race based on recent runs. His handicap mark is fine and with his form here he is worth an EW bet in my opinion. I have toyed with win only but the field size and the fact he isn't getting any younger have made me go EW. He ran well last time out.

That is all for tomorrow,

Josh