Hello Friend

18/07/15

3.40 Curragh Captain Cullen 

Ideal Cond. 8-15 days, Class IRE<10k

Form in Cond. 16,1,1,8,1 9 (0/21, 3 places outside) 

Positives. Has conditions and returned to form last time out. Handicapped to go well, especially with this jockey on top as well, claiming. Also a course winner. 

Negatives. Well all of the winning form was with his previous trainer but that run last time suggests he may be finding the key to this horse.

My Verdict: 1 point win 10/1 general. This horse has won at all kinds of odds for past connections and is another that appears to run really well or not very well at all. Hopefully he is on a going day, but if he goes in again in conditions at some point it has paid well in the past. 

7.10 Ling Rambo Will 

Ideal Con. 8-30 days; Class 5 or lower, OR70 or lower

Form in Cond. 1,3,3,3,1,1,5,1 , 10, 4  (0/17, 3 places outside) 

Positives. He has his conditions and has a near identical record over 5f as he does 6f (2/12 both distances, 7 places over 6f) He is 1/4, 3 places in C6. 1/3, 1 places over CD. He ran a much better race last time and at least he his doing something different here by stepping up in trip. He also has the assistance of SDS-no bad thing in my opinion. He also looks to be fancied this day. 

Negatives. None with race conditions or profile. He is 1/11, 1 place above 8/1 so any drift may be a concern. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 8/1 general. Bar that 10 when unfancied in the market he usually runs his race in conditions and hopefully he can get his win. He is handicapped to go in at some point now. There are no other out and out front runners in here and it is possible SDS tries to make all. 

8.25 Haydock Maoi Chinn Tire 

Ideal Cond. 1m6f-2m, Good to Firm 

Form in Cond. 1,1,1,2,1,2,1 7,5 (0/19, 5 places) 

Positives. Has his conditions again and is 2/4, 3 places over 1m6f and 2/6, 3 places under this jockey. 

Negatives. Hasnt been in great form but his mark is coming down. Everything else looks fine and there is plenty of pace in this race, on paper, which should help. He is still 3lb above his highest winning mark, with claims considered. But he did win off 66 well, runs off effectively 69 here. 

My Verdict. Wait for market support. 1 point win 8/1 or below. A few horses are being pulled out of this race - but so far he is 0/7, 0 places when above 8/1 (which he has been for both runs this season in conditions) He looks like a money horse but does have plenty in his favour. 

***

Non Qualifiers 

-True Peasure (2.25 Chester) Technically has conditions again but has not run outside of conditions for some time and what was the profile looks skewed now - also is better below C4. 

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Josh