Subject: Flat Profiles: Qualifier 05/07/15

Hello Friend

Bondi Beach Boy didn't run too well yesterday but I was right to ignore the draw this time given that a horse drawn 17 won. There will be easier opportunities for him at his favourite track and that was the first time we have backed him this season. Meandmyshadow ran as if something was amiss, never looking happy with an awkward head carriage I had never noticed before. She finished tailed off.


05/07/15

4.10 Ayr Border Bandit

Ideal Cond. 8-8.5F, Gd-Soft or better, OR 80 or under

Form in Cond. 4,1,7,2,2,1,1,3,1,6,1,1, 2 ,3,5 (0/22, 1 place outside)

Positives. Has his conditions again and has been running well this season.

Negatives. Goes up to C3 here, a level at which he is 0/4, 0 places so far. Currently 16/1 and is 0/10, 0 places when going off 14/1+. Has been finding a few too good each time so far which is a negative in this case I think, as his mark isn't moving, and he is clearly not progressive. Also gets a new jockey on board for the first time. Only 1/10, 1 place LH (5/20, 12 places RH)

My Verdict. No Bet. I cant see how a repeat of his last runs would be good enough to win this, and he doesn't look like he is about to find improvement. His record at C3 is so far uninspiring and he will need a lot of in form, progressive opponents to falter here if he is to take his chance. The market, and history, suggest this is not his day either. I expect him to run his race again but I am happy to leave him this time. He needs a lot to drop right but If money comes that would be interesting. Hopefully my judgement on this bigger priced selection is good, we shall see.

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Non Qualifiers

-Merchant of Dubai (2.00 Ayr)

-Captain Cullen (2.55 Fairyhouse)

-Monel (4.45 Ayr)

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Enjoy the rest  of your weekend,

Josh











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