Hello Friend

29/06/15

6.15 Muss

Jan Smuts

Ideal Cond. Muss, C6, 2m

Form In Cond. 1,1,2 (2/36. 13 places outside)

Positives. There were a couple of routes in with this horse, with him usually firing in May. However he failed twice possibly on ground softer than ideal. However he also has a liking for Musselburgh. He has his conditions and has been knocking on the door. All race conditions are fine. Hopefully a return to his fav CD will make the difference.

Negatives. Not too many however you could say his consistency is a bit of a negative as he keeps finding a few too good and is now 1/26, 12 places rated OR61-70, as opposed to 3/12, 6 places rated OR51-60. However this mark is clearly not beyond him. Emma Sayer has yet to win on him (0/9. 5 places) but this is an apprentice handicap which helps.

My Verdict. 1 point win 6/1. I see no reason why he wont run his race again.

La Bacouetteuse

Ideal Cond. Muss, C5 or below, OR70 or below

Form in Cond. 3,2,7,1,1,9,3,1,3,5,5,1,1 4 (3/28, 7 places outside)

Positives. He has his conditions again,  and the 4 was after a long break. He is now 13b below his highest winning mark after claims taken account of. All race conditions fine and he is 4/11, 6 places in class 6. He has won up to 20/1 before . Everything looks set for a decent run, with better ground suiting.

Negatives. Well none really. He is 10 now but it is too early to write him off given his winning form last season.

My Verdict. 1 point win 12/1. Hopefully one of the two, and preferably this one, can win this race.

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8.45 Muss True Pleasure

Ideal Cond. C4 or below 1-11 runners

Form in Cond. 1,1,3,1,4,1,1,2,6,  1,1, 3, 2, 4, 2 (0/7, 1 place outside)

Positives. She has her conditions and has been nothing but consistent recently and returned a small profit for EW backers LTO at 8/1.  

Negatives. Well every run this season has now been in conditions which makes the profile start to appear a bit unbalanced. Her record in C4 now reads 1/9, 4 places, against 5/8 in class 5. She keeps bumping into one or two too good, and may need to drop in the ratings again.

My verdict. No Bet. In a sense she has done her job this season and while I would not be shocked if she won I am happy to leave her now, having won twice this season already. I may get involved again if and when she drops back down into C5. She is clearly still in decent form so it will be interesting how she runs.

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Non Qualifiers

-Gran Canaria Queen (4.00 Ponte)

-Ellaal (5.30 Ponte)

-If I Were A Boy / Silver Alliance (7.30 Wind)

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All the best

Josh