Good Morning, Friend
To Cheltenham we go... I'm about 20 minutes from Cheltenham Spa station and have a few darts on the blog today, including a 'through the card'.
I've used some trainer stats to help me, which you can find below... all three have 'qualifiers' over the next two days which may be worth a closer look...
Cheltenham December Meeting Trainer Stats
Stats for last five meetings…
Nicky Henderson / Aged 6 or younger / 5/1 or shorter SP
Nigel Twiston-Davies / Horse top 3 on last start / Any odds
Dan Skelton / All runners / 11/2 or shorter SP
19 bets / 4 wins / 8p / +4 BFSP
Last 3 years… of those, aged 5+ , 4/9,6p, +6
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Of course, I sent you a loser yesterday! Heard That did indeed hear that I'd emailed out, and consented to hit two fences very very hard - it was remarkable he worked his way into it after the first one/still travelled, but the second error really did knock him. I'm convinced he's got a 3 mile handicap chase in him and may be a bigger price next time. To my eyes he moved like a well handicapped horse but need to jump better - which he did when winning the race before. Wetherby could suit, in a 0-110 up against northern horses.
I did tip three horses, and typically the first of them won at 6/1, alas! Doh.
Here's what I said about him...
El Vigaro – it may be a long afternoon if this one is out the four! One from the stats above, arriving on a hat-trick having been winning easily enough to my eyes – I don’t think he does a lot in front and there could be a fair bit left in the tank, but we’ll race to find out. He went up 6lb for his last win but gets a handy 5lb off from a decent claimer here. He jumps well, races prominently and appears to keep finding for pressure. The yard are in fine form (6/17,9p last 30d) and do well with LTO winners (10/25, 13p +10 last two years). I just thought 6s looked big enough here, esp with EW cover, as if the fav does bolt up, on all known recent form, he should be the best of the rest in what looks a moderate race.
Kotari may bolt up but looked short enough to my eyes, 0/5,0p over hurdles, but evidently chucked in on his flat form. Maybe he was out of sorts/immature when last seen hurdling, but he does have to prove his 2m stamina for hurdles – he stays 12f on the level, so he should be fine, but it’s still a question. El V should make him, and everything else in here, work for their win, and hopefully worst case it’s a case of money back, move on.
It was another profitable day, +1.3 points, but every little helps.
Hopefully I can have a good day at HQ.
You can find out if I do, but giving my members' content a go HERE >>>
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All the best,
Josh
