Hello Friend
A couple of things for you today. I do have a guest post from Paul Ferguson to send you, with 5 novice chasers to keep an eye on as they progress (hopefully) through the ranks. I'll send that out later in the week, possibly Sunday.
In the meantime, from today's free post which you can read/comment on HERE>>>
Firstly a 'test tip' from my members club... my main chase tips focus on the stayers (2m7f+) where my historical record stands up to scrutiny, but where that can't be said for chases over a shorter distance- there's no reason I shouldn't do well with these long term and they have been ticking along just fine, helped by the win of Vivas at Warwick earlier in the week. Not that I have a great record of sending you winners in recent weeks, but that will change at some point! :)
Below that this is a video review of a horse I got completely wrong yesterday, in a race where I tipped the 3rd (he ran fine). There was some lazy analysis of said horse and I like to reflect in order to try and ensure such errors don't happen too regularly moving forwards! Hopefully you find it interesting and it may help in your own approach to analysing chases - or give you some ideas. So, put the kettle on and get the notepad out if you wish :)
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Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 3/16,8p, +9.3)
(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)
2.55 Sligo - Thecraicisninety - 1 point win - 4/1 (gen)
A trip over the Irish Sea... I thought 4s looked decent enough here as I didn't think it was that competitive, with plenty of older legs and horses seemingly out of form.
This horse is 1/11, 6p over fences but 1/5,5p since P Roche started training him (not sure if he's taken over from his father/some relation, C Roche). His chase win came over this CD which I found interesting. He had a break, they brought him back over hurdles LTO where he ran ok, and now the retained rider for JP (in Ireland) jumps back on. He races prominently and does jump well at his best, and his form is decent. The Kilbeggan defeat to Mill Quest was franked, and he was just outstayed over the last there, 20f. Punchestown 2nd was ok, possibly having gone off too quick, but he kept battling. His conqueror that day, Reach Up, doesn't seem in the same form (now a NR). Something clearly went wrong NTO, before the break and the return. The yard are in cracking form and I thought he looked solid. I'd like to think this has been the plan.
Cliff House is a danger but the yard are quiet and he's now 0/10 over fences. He likes coming second, which at 5/2 would be a negative for me. Happy to take on at the price but I suppose he's consistent and if I've got mine wrong he's the likely beneficiary.
Light That is unexposed but a few questions at the price (i'd want bigger) and the rest I was happy to leave for various reasons.
Hopefully the selection will race up in the van and if unable to lead, will do so at some point turning in as others drop away.
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Treackle Tart... what did I miss?!
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All the best, Josh
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