Hello Friend
Using the Ayr Silver Cup stats/trends/trainer pointers I shared with you yesterday, i've gone through tomorrow's race and highlighted the relevant 'qualifiers' - this is something I do every week in the members' posts for two big Saturday handicaps - hopefully they help with your own analysis. The trends pointers are always a guide, but the runners from those trainer's who've won the race previously are always worth a closer look.
To help with any analysis you could focus on those horses that may front run, or may be in the front 1/4 or 1/3 of the field. And i'd always start with the 'unexposed' handicappers- those who you think may not have shown their best just yet - including those who you may think are future group performers. Focusing on those with some form in big fields is never a bad starting point either. And of course if you use various ratings sets etc, you can see which horses below come out well against those.
Looking at the Silver Cup >>>
Trainers (to have won race in last 21 renewals/with runners...)
- Gabrial The Saint / Red Balloons
- Venturous
- Get Knotted / Jawaal
- Rapid Applause
Trends Shortlist
Looking at a profile of: age 3-5, max distance run 7f+, max distance won 6-7f, 1-5 runs prev 90 days, 2-5 career wins, 0-3 distance wins, leaves 12/91 runners, 22p, +158 SP in the last 15 renewals... (12 winners from 15 races)
Alkaraama / Lahore / Citron Major / Royal Residence / Magical Wish / Jawwaal
You can find my stats/trends, (found using HorseRaceBase) in today's free post HERE>>> (and in yesterday's email)
The above is only ever a guide, of course the winner may not even be listed :) But this approach does find plenty of these big race winners, it's just a case of homing in on the right one, which is easier said than done! :)
* Silly Question Friday
I'm always on the lookout for decent blog posts and my old mentor Matt over at Geegeez has come up with a great new idea - Silly Question Friday - where he's asked his readers to send in any racing related questions they wish, and he'll try to answer them.
Today's first article is worth a read, covering a variety of topics including 'how does a jockey judge pace' and 'what does 'is he off' mean' ? , plus many more.
* I doubt i'll be in touch tomorrow, so have a great weekend, and as always, best of luck with any bets,
All the best, Josh |
