Hello Friend
It's been a fairly quiet week so far and in my hunt to find something worth backing today I landed on a 6/1 poke ridden by Gavin Sheehan. Nothing from my main members' stats qualifiers really jumped out at me but with any luck this 'horse of interest' may give me a run for my money...
I've taken the below from today's free post which you can read HERE>>>
As an aside,Colin Leafe, who has been a member since the early days I think (autumn 2016), has started posting his AW tips in the comments, on the free post. Since he started he is 15/54, +29 points to bookmakers SP. Not bad! A solid start. He used to run a successful tipping service I believe, and has pedigree. As always, if I have nothing useful/profitable to say, someone on the blog usually does somewhere! :) As always, with whatever approach you may follow, you must use an appropriate bank and be prepared for the inevitable losing runs. The majority of punters don't do that, hence why 1-3% only win long term. I have probably cursed him now, so apologies.
You can check out his tips today in the comments HERE>>>
My own horse of interest today is as follows...
Horse of Interest...
2.15 Leic - Heresmynumber - 6/1 / 11/2
I've had a flick through the cards with some of the 'fact sheet' stats/individuals in my head (this is a members' resource that pulls together the stats research from my weekly research articles...some of these become micro systems that we track in the 'test zone', and collectively they are now on +64.5 points since the start of September. This fact sheet is there for members to use as they please, to help find the odd big priced winner or two)... and this horse looks interesting on what is currently a quiet enough punting day for me.
Gavin Sheehan was the 'way in' and if I focus on him for a moment...
-since start of 2017... when he has just 1 ride at the track, 12/1< SP... 23/90,45p, +58 BFSP all runners. 3/7,4p in Novice handicap chases.
-the trainer... well she is 6/25,9p in Novice handicap chases (more favourable than her 3/45 or so in handicap chases), 1/2 at Leicester, 2/10,3p those making their chase debut. She is 3/12,4p all runners at the track in the last year and is 2/8,4p when teaming up with Sheehan in C4-chases-handicaps.
I find it interesting that Gavin comes here for the one ride, and that ride being a horse making chase debut. Not necessarily the type you would drag yourself out of bed for but he has ridden him before and maybe he is relishing today's test. I like it when trainers don't hang around over hurdles if they think they've a nice chaser on their hands. This one returned from a monster lay-off two starts ago and built on that LTO. He jumped a hurdle late on very very big, as if he has done plenty of schooling over fences already. That was a decent enough run, only beaten 6l. The first few fences will tell us plenty but I suspect Gavin may be aggressive on him and it isn't impossible he makes all, or tries to. That may depend on his jumping. It's a weak race that won't take much winning but he could have stacks in hand, if taking to fences. There is a strong stats case for why he may go well, a logical case also (Sheehan 1 ride at track etc), and he is a decent enough price. I've had a nibble but you are free to do with that info as you please. Win, lose or draw he won't appear in any 'tipping' totals and I haven't had my full tipping stake on him. Hopefully I regret not doing so come 3.20 or so. A solid stats chance on paper, I'll just hope he doesn't unseat at the first!
All the best, Josh
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