Good Morning, Friend

To Cheltenham...

Three chase pokes for me today…

2.25 Chelt – Matata – 11/4

3.35 Chelt – Planned Paradise – 12/1 (15.00 Betfair)

3.35 Chelt – The Boola Boss – 18/1 (23.00 Betfair)

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The return of racing at Jumps HQ has come around quickly again, as it always does! It's an ok card, without being spectacular, for all the handicaps are solid enough.

Yesterday I managed to land on a 9/1 winner, which I roared home up the hill, having bungled the last - a clear demonstration of how jumping is crucial. My lad was upsides or just ahead approaching it, put the breaks on a bit, hopped over, while his rival flew it, and as they landed he suddenly had 3.5 lengths or so to claw back, as well as his momentum, against a horse who wasn't stopping. It was his worst jump of the race having cruised around, thankfully the turbos kicked in and away he went. The 1-2-3 in this were all LTO winners and it's solid enough form for the north, the 2nd, Indian Louis, surely has more chases in him (must go RH I think, maybe one for Muss) and the winner, The Flier Begley, could have another in him on the right ground, given how he moved through this and got back up to win.

I'd track Whoshotthesherriff, eye-catching on his stable debut/seasonal return. He showed much more zest here and on this evidence, may strike NTO if well placed. I think 2m4f or so is ideal, and he's entitled to race against Vets now, of which there's a 2m3-5f series now. He tanked into this before tiring and is very well handicapped on old form, for all clearly not the same horse that he used to be.

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Onto today, my notes for the three pokes above and my trends for said races. There are no 'October Trainer' qualifiers today...

2.25 – Matata – he hits my trends down below, has the right profile, Twister has won this before and the yard are in decent form. The horse… well he will try and make all, for all I hope he doesn’t get in a fight with Calico, but I just think on this decent ground (much preferred) he could have too much pace and class for them. He’s also open to bundles of improvement this season which isn’t necessarily the case for others in here. He ran some crackers last season, including here in a handicap, on ground too soft, but only overhauled late by an Evan Williams horse, Libberty Hunter, who would then finish 2nd in The Grand Annual. Solid form. He then raced in a G2, and was highly tried in G1s from there on in, all on ground which his earlier form suggests would have been plenty soft enough. I think he’ll bounce off this today. He had the pace to lead a strong Arkle field to before 2 out (a race which has worked out well), and I don’t think anything in his could give Gaelic Warrior a lead over 2m. He was probably over the top at Aintree. In any case, I thought 11/4 was fair here and he could thrash these, hopefully!

If he falters, or goes too hard, maybe Skeltons could pick up the pieces but I’m not sure, Dancing On Own, last year’s winner, could go well, but isn’t getting any younger but if he runs to his best he would. be thereabouts. However, I’ve sided with the unexposed one.

3.35 –

Planned Paradise – hits my trends down below which I hope hold firm, they may not of course! In any case, this lad arrives in form after a decent effort at Warwick, where he cruised around, in a race which turned into sprint. He was beaten by an unexposed Skelton chaser, and the 3rd nearly won a C2 at Chep NTO. This horse appeared to lose his way, but has been better this season, and I’m sure this is his sort of trip, around a more galloping track. I’ve no idea how he won around Perth over 2m4f earlier in the summer but probably just outclassed them. I think he wants decent ground, and has run well in better handicaps than this inc a decent 2nd in The London National around Sandown. His mark is fine, Christian has won this before and Gina Andrews knows her way around here, and will be a big asset. I hope she rides him handy enough as he will be staying on up the hill if running his race. 12s+ just looked big to my eyes.

The Boola Boss – as did 18s+ for this horse, representing the in-form Rebecca Curtis. Like the one above, he arrives here fit, which could be worth plenty, having had a pipe opener at Stratford LTO on ground which was probably soft enough. He can race handy and looks progressive as a staying chaser. There’s no doubt more to come this season on decent ground, just a matter of time. I think he’ll relish this CD. He can be scrappy at the odd one, maybe more so novicey, but is improving and jumped around Chepstow fine. He gets a decent Irish amateur on, who’s placed in The Kim Muir, so knows his way around. I thought he looked a lively outsider here, in an open looking race on paper.

I didn’t really like much else, for all evidently most likely I've got something very wrong! Hold Your Fort is an interesting outsider but having watched a few replays, thought he looked small enough and may struggle around here with these fences, but I could be wrong. He sweated up at Winc, but if bounced back to form, and jumped well, I could see him in the places, but without enough to win, I hope! I may be on the wrong Williams horse but Strictly can beat me at 6s/7s under his 7lb claimer. He did move well LTO and was an eye-catcher, for all a Vets race, and will no doubt come on for it, if it doesn’t come too soon as it was still a big effort to a point. I wondered if on this ground whether he’d get too far back, we shall see. In any case, on this occasion I’ve stuck to my trends profile, and nothing else in the race could tempt me in.

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Friday’s Trends

2.25 Chelt

9/9 0-3 hncp wins

9/9 0-3 hncp chase wins (7/9 has 0-)

9/9 0-4 chase wins

8/9 ran 121+ days

If that holds: Madara, Matata, Calico, Arclight, Scarface

Two horses in race have 0-1 hncp chase wins, 7/9 winners, Matata , Arclight

8/9 have been top 4 in market which may help. 4/9 runners ,5p +13 ran at Chelt LTO.

Trainers, to have won race/with runners

Matata / Dancing On My Own (last years winner) prev race winners currently 0/3,0p)

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3.35 Chelt – Amateaurs Hncp C

16/16 OR 123<

16/16 yet to win above C3

16/16 0-3 runs at course

16/16 jockey ridden horse 0-1

16/16 horse had 1-6 career wins

16/16 has 1+ chase wins

All winners 20/1< SP.

IF upholding would point to eight…

Ceanndana, Jack’s Parrot, The Boola Boss, St Deniss Well, Jimmy The Digger, No But I Will, Planned Parasise, Hold Your Fort

Trainers, to have won race/with runners

Mole Court/Wick Green, The Newest One, Landen Calling, Strictlyadancer/Planned Paradise, Jimmy The Digger.

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Thanks for reading and best of luck with any bets,

Josh

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