Good Morning, Friend

I'll jump straight to it today, I've had a couple of EW darts on two decent priced handicap chasers, which you can find below. We'll see how they go, most lose at these prices of course but you don't need many to go in over time to do just fine, hopefully they place at worst...

October Trainers

2.45 Lud – Dameofthecotswolds

3.55 Lud – Farie Cutlass

Today’s Tips & Notes

A couple of chase pokes for me today…

3.20 Ludlow – Shiroccos Dream – 12/1-14/1 EW 3p

5.15 Carlisle – The Flier Begley – 9/1-17/2 – EW 4p

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Shiroccos Dream – I can’t work out why she’s outsider of the field, and if she drifts up to the race/doesn’t shorter a bit, maybe I’ll know my fate. A few things lured me in at the odds… the yard are obviously ticking along in decent form, which can’t be said for every trainer in this race, not on paper anyway. This mare… well, I think this is the time to catch her, she’s 2/10 over fences, but 2/2 on the back of 91+ day breaks, with a decent record fresh. She bolted up over fences around Hereford around this time last year, on her return run, against mares. She’s 0/8,1p over fences when making a quicker return. She’s well handicapped, is in the right class, gets her ground and surely they’ll have her tuned up here. I also thought she’ll try and make all, or certainly be in the right spot. Hopefully she can get to the front, her jumping is a big asset (even more so today against some inexperienced chase rivals) and that should help. I thought there was a lot to like at the prices, but the market as it stands at the moment isn’t filling me with confidence, we’ll see what happens as the race draws nearer.

Of the opposition... well a few have sexier profiles and are open to further improvement over fences. However, Regal Renaissance has no winning record fresh as yet, has stamina to prove, and can be patiently ridden (although trip may help her sit closer). Just her 2nd chase start so open to improvement, but the lack of a run/3m combo made me happy to oppose at the odds. Flintara has a good record fresh but may be better on softer, especially over this sharper 3m. The yard 0/10,2p in last 30d and they had a fancied chaser at Exeter yest run so-so. Kit’s Coy is interesting as thoroughly unexposed on chase debut, first run of season and so that to prove also although was taking last season around here when BD, so may be fine. Still, she has to prove she can jump under pressure and stay, with the yard not banging them in yet, ok but only 2/27 last 14d. She’s probably the one I most fear, and if she pings the first few and is tanking along, I’ll pray for a top 3!

Love of Neymore has a few unknowns also, chase debut, fitness, up in class, the yard are shrewd but 0/13,2p last 30d and jockey 0/28 all rides around here so far, for all he’s decent and there may be nothing in that. Fergal’s makes chase debut on seasonal return, and with class to prove. Could take a big step forward of course but I was happy to leave today, again the yard not banging them in, 2/28 last 14d. Current Mood is interesting to some degree, back class, but 3rd chase start as a 9YO, of more concern for me was the yard form, 0/32,5p last 14d, horse may want softer.Has been very well backed this morning though I thought Another Day Out may just be a C5 animal. That leaves Tizzard’s other one, So Said I, who could go well (has been backed), but I was guessing as to fitness and I thought she may want much softer ground, that’s assuming the going description is correct. She is interesting, but not enough there for me here today, stamina to prove over fences, for all stayed 3m over hurdles and she could improve for it. I’m hoping this is a pipe opener and they let their other one get on with it but I could have that very wrong!

The Flier Begley – I thought 9s looked more than generous here with 4 places to play with, now the yard appear to have got a grip on him, and for me there’s more to come as a chaser, despite being a 9yo. (2/12,4p over fences) He was formerly half decent for his Irish yard, which included a solid effort in an Ayr C3 off 130 last December. I think he wants better ground and he doesn’t stay 3m, which he’s tried a few times, but a flat 2m4f is probably sharp enough – he got outpaced at Warwick, the jockey having been motionless for an age, but responded well to pressure to get up late and was doing all his best work at the line/only just getting going. I thought he may appreciate this hill if able to keep in touch. He also jumps slightly out to his right so may appreciate going this way round again. Two starts back, when unfancied (backed a bit LTO) he was given a quieter ride in a C3 around Bangor, in part because he found that all happening a bit too quickly also, but it was solid for the grade/time of year, and he kept on well in 3rd under minimal pressure. I just thought, he’s a fit, in form chaser, who jumps very well, stays this trip very well, will race handily and is well treated on old form, but still with a bit more to come for this yard. The jockey knows him better now also. In the last 5 years, Gary Hamner is 2/8,4p with his handicap chasers around here, so can hopefully add another one. In any case, I thought he was overpriced, especially with the extra places.

Of the opposition… well I won’t go through them all but I thought I had to take on the Fav and try and get him beat, thus creating masses of value elsewhere. I may be very wrong of course, and he has a ‘sexy’ profile on chase debut and seasonal return. However, this is a big field and while an Irish Point winner, still asks a question in context of price. His novice hurdle form was solid enough without being spectacular form as yet. Of course he could be lobbed in and he should improve plenty for a fence, but I couldn’t back him at his price on first run of the season. I thought Rock Of Star may want softer, I’ve no idea if he’s fit he may want 3m/further, esp on this ground, Becky doesn’t fire them out off 60+ day breaks (9/202 last 2 years) nor on first start for the stable having moved yards 2/62 with those in last 2 years. Peejaybee could go well, LTO winner, for all is usually patiently ridden which isn’t something I like generally over fences but not around here in a big field. I hope he’s too far back again but maybe they’ll try and keep him closer. He can be scrappy at the odd jump but he’s still well treated on handicap hurdle form, and could give me a headache.

As could Glencassley, who does have a decent record fresh, his chase win in a so-so 4 runner race, before his form tailed off a bit. There could be a bit more to come this season Charlie going along ok without banging them in. They could be the two I fear most alongside the fav. Lucinda doesn’t do that well around here with her chasers, and Indian Louis has a class question, for all does look best RH. The rest have far too many questions for me. Treaty Boy at 25s could be a ‘lurker’ for the Coltherd’s, ‘unexposed’ at this distance, it could unlock more, for all he looks a tricky individual, but he could pop up in a little race at some point, hopefully not here! He may want softer and may want a proper C5. If I haven't mentioned the winner, then I wasn't very close this time!

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Thanks for reading and GL with any bets,

Josh