Good Morning Friend
I hope you're having a great week.
It's rare for me to send you emails flagging certain horses and for them to actually win - the email to the free list is usually a curse, but we had a good run of it last Wed-Friday and I hope you enjoyed flicking through, even if your pin didn't land on any winners.
From the emails sent in there were a few of you who had some fun, including the odd placepot landing. That's what it's all about.
It's been another half decent week on the 'flat pointers' and 'through the cards' front, especially yesterday on the blog when flagging the red hot form of Ed Bethell. I homed in on two horses of his which looked good on paper, an 8s>10/3 winner and and an agonising 6/1 second, caught on the line, photo. Urgh.
Given that Beverley success I thought i'd push my luck and stay there for today's Flat Pointers. The below is taken from my Members' Club post and with no 3m+ jumps races to get stuck into until Saturday i've been trying to fine tune my flat brain. It's been going well in recent days and said pointers will remain until the end of the season..
Let's crack on... as always, a few stats, micros, trainers in form, some logic, some horses, some pace, etc...
I’m going to stick with Beverley for today’s musings…
Tim Easterby
He has a few ‘quick returners’ today which got me digging and there could be some gold to be mined by focussing on said horses. Obviously they’ll all bomb out today but even so…
Trainer – Tim Easterby / Jockey – David Allan / Handicaps / Class 5 & 6 / Horse ran 1-10 days ago / 2018 >
139 bets / 40 wins / 72p / 29% sr / +72 SP / +102 BFSP / BF AE 1.37
At Beverley, said horses are… 9/21, 12p, +18 (x4 runners today)
Within that angle there are a few tracks they appear to target… Ayr, Beverley, Catterick, Newcastle, Redcar, Thirsk…
82 bets / 31 wins/ 45p / 38% sr / +98 SP / +125 BFSP / BFAE 1.94 (6/9 in 2021)
An angle to note down.
They have four such runners today to ponder as you please…(prices correct as of 9am when posted)
3.10 – Eeh Bah Gum 4/1 – I think that price may just about be ok. Drawn 1 over this 5f David (who hasn’t ridden last three runs) will have one thing in mind, blast out and get prominent. The horse drops back into a C5 here and ran well 7 days ago. He’s in form at least and was ‘going forward’ come the line. It could be he actually wants a stiff 5f with an uphill finish – well, he’s only raced here once, over this CD, and he bolted up by 4L off 62. He’s previously won off 83 and clearly 64 is looking workable/tempting. He’s dropped 6lb in his last four runs and has run with credit a few times. He’s posted some decent RPRs this season also, relative to his mark, 73, 75, 76, a 67 LTO. I don’t think he’ll be far away here and I wouldn’t fall off my seat if he blitzed them, for all he doesn’t look quite as good as he once was.
3.45 – Summer Power – 12/1 – the market may guide here and he could well lose a leg, we shall see, but I wouldn’t put you off a small interest wager for all he has a few questions. He’s 3 and getting chunks of weight here but is a 7 race maiden, yet to place. There’s a chance he wants it softer but that’s more an unknown, but he ran well at Thirsk. This is his first try at 16f and I do wonder if he was flat out in his two runs before, under the pump 2f+ from home, racing inefficiently and dropping back. Then again he could be running into fitness and he is inexperienced. It’s his breeding which does catch the eye – a half brother to Mildenberger who was/is a 110+ horse for MJ and won over 2m, his dam was a 2m AW winner also. I can see why they’re rolling the dice and trying him at this trip – this 2m tempo, lobbing along in ‘his’ comfort zone ‘could’ transform him. OR, he’s just moderate! Would I be shocked if he won a race like this? No. Would I be shocked if he did sod all and was stuffed given his profile to date, no.
I will mention Wynford in this at 4/1 also. He was 11/2 before the withdrawal of the 3s fav, and I actually thought he was the one to beat. I don’t like the fact he’s usually ridden cold, not at this price point (and that tempers my all out enthusiasm), but Kevin knows him well, won on him at Newcastle two starts back, beating a couple of subsequent winners in behind. He ran ok at Carlisle in a C5 10 days ago, but could never quite get there. He’s still unexposed as a flat staying handicapper really, despite being 8, and he’s won and competed off much higher. That win two starts back was a 65 RPR from a mark of 55, he went up to 60. And actually posted a better RPR LTO, 68. This mark is still workable. He will need a pace to aim at and some luck, but 4s could still be ok. He’s been in good form his last three runs, inc a hurdle win and Kevin rides this place well.
4.55 – Mikmak – another Easterby quick returner who I won’t contemplate at 6/4, maybe one for multiples if you must, for all I thought he was better with cut in the ground and this could be quick enough today, drying out. But he does arrive in form and maybe things didn’t go right for him 3 days ago under an inexperienced pilot – he got a bit stuck, they may not have gone quick enough etc. But, you won't get rich in this game backing 6/4 shots regularly, too hard for me at that end to win long term.
Ventura Gold 16/1 … is the horse I probably can’t resist a small nibble on at that price, which looks huge. John Mackie is on fire and most of his are worth a look in the coming days, they can also fly in at all prices.
He’s 4/12, 6p in the last 30 days, 3/5,4p in the last 14, 78% rivals beaten. Will this good form rub off on Ventura…
This is his third run of the season, third for the yard and he drops into a Class 6 for the first time for them and the 6th time in his life… he’s 2/5,3p in C6 contests , 1/3,2p in handicaps. His last win was for Fahey in August 19 off 73, today he runs off 57. At some point John is finding the key and this horse will fly home, probably with the jockey looking around for dangers, before he wins his next two untroubled also.
The CP return also which is interesting, he wore those on his last three starts of 2020 for his previous trainer and they appeared to work ok. He wasn’t beaten far in a couple of those 8f races, some RPRs in high 60s. One of those was here, three starts back, a C5 off 8lb higher, probably given too much to do, ‘staying on’, beaten 2 3/4 L, 15 subsequent winners have come out of that, so it wasn’t a bad C5. He also ran well here over 10f the time before that, fading from 2f out having been up there. I’m not sure he stays a stiff/strong run 9f+ (does at Muss, small field) and this 8f 100y could be ideal. He weakened gradually from 1f out at Carlisle’s stiff 9f 35 days ago. It’s interesting they bring him back to a track where he’s run well.
In any case, I thought he looked overpriced, maybe EW would be wise, but if you like your flat handicaps he’s one for the notebook – he’s very well handicapped, and John Mackie is a decent trainer who knows the time of day, he will get him winning again before the season is out I suspect. A well run 8f or so, or a small field dawdle over a bit further.
17.25 – Motarajel – 7/1 …
The final ‘quick returner’ for Tim E and I flagged this one at Ayr 3 days ago where I think the ground went against him – it turned proper soft which was a complete unknown and, until proven otherwise, i’ll assume he didn’t handle it. He’s now 0/7,1p in his career but 7s looks big on his run here two starts back, staying on over 7f, in a C5, beaten 3l by a well handicapped horse, the rest beaten. He’s now up 1f 100 yards, a class 6, David Allan gets a go (I don’t mind Duran, but David is some upgrade imo). The CP appeared to help him in that run here on 27th July and three of the oppo do like to get on with it, so with any luck they go a decent clip and David can slot in behind. It’s his first run in a C6 on decent ground, and if he builds on that Beverley effort he will outrun his odds here. He’s clearly a bit tricky and not one to fully trust, but he should be thereabouts against these. I don’t know what he’ll do if hitting the front/having to scrap against something but again I suppose EW is an option, more so as insurance.
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As always, hopefully something there to ponder but if nothing else an interesting read, the odd stat/angle to note if that’s your thing. I’ll cross my fingers that I’ve mentioned a winner!
GL with any bets as always,
Josh
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