Good Morning Friend
'Through The Card'
If you've found a few winners so far this week at Ascot, or even one, give yourself a pat on the back! Challenging stuff as always, but just how we like it (?!)
My two interest pokes in The Royal Hunt Cup may still be running, well Maydanny went backwards from 2f out (will prob hack up at Glorious Goodwood no doubt) but Brunch ran ok in 7th. I'm not sure he was in love with that ground but will pick up something back up north before the season is out. The main two trends picks ran well in 2nd and 3rd, so pleasing from that perspective. I like when they run well as it gives me hope of landing on future winners in such races. That approach does work, as does focusing on trainer's who've won said race previously. (as had Saeed Bin Suroor, but I didn't back that sadly, 50s > 18s)
There was a 9s>22/1 winner for Frankie (sometimes the market doesn't have a clue) on the stats list, for all that he was 2/47 with horses sent off bigger than 17/2 in C1s before that, in the last 8 years here. Hard to find but well done if you landed on her, all the other jockeys having a brain fade and staying up the middle - the worst part of the track by far. You clearly need to be on either wing.
There's no video today but instead thought i'd do a 'through the card', which you can read below. I've done this three times in recent weeks as requested by members who've been off to the races, the best so far with 3/7 winners at Haydock, and the same at Aintree the other day. Clearly far less competitive meetings than this.
As always there is some method and I like to highlight some trainer stats/angles that you can note down for the future, if you like that sort of thing. Something of use, even if the horses all run appallingly! I'll get my tin hat ready in case they all fall out the back of the TV but it's a bit of fun and if nothing else, something to read... let's crack on...
‘Through The Card’
2.30
Cadamosto – 11/2, Aidan/Ryan are 2/6,3p in this race and any representative should be respected, for all the fact this one’s only had one start is unusual for Aidan, especially in this race. I think they’ve been waiting for decent ground – there’s some showers forecast, they could get a bit, they could miss them later on in the day, who knows. With any luck this ground still has plenty of good in it for the first few races at least. This one looks speedy and I thought i’d best respect connections.
Go Bears Go – 15/2 may be fair enough for this one, representing his in-form yard fresh from Royal Ascot success (a 1-2) in the final race yesterday. This horse has course form which could be a big plus and he was impressive there, visually quickening up from 2 out when asked on soft. He could be better on decent ground. He’s clearly smart, and today will tell us just how smart but he looked very straightforward there. His trainer is now 3/10,5p +10 SP with his Ascot runners in the last year and that could be a micro angle to keep an eye on, suggesting that he knows the sort to send here. A young trainer going places.
Who knows about the draw – they may split in two here, or all bunch up the middle, but it’s clear that’s the worst of the ground and you really need to be hugging either rail if you can.
3.05
Hmm, this looks like Mohaafeth’s to lose I think, so so impressive (visually at least) the last three runs. It isn’t a price I’d want to play at and a race I’m happy to watch I think. (or a small double with Stradivarius for interest?) All about whether he turns up by the looks of it. If he doesn’t, maybe One Ruler would pick up the pieces, but i’m tempted to sit this out, even with my £2 tv money bets. The Haggas team are in fine form, 14/41, 19p, 68% rivals beaten, in the last 14 days. That win SR is 13% above the 365 day average and they’re clearly going well.
3.40
Dubai Fountain – 8s or so, maybe bigger on the machine, I thought there was a chance that Will Buick may get a freebie on the front end here, and these Johnston horses can be dangerous in those circumstances as we know. Maybe Epsom is an indication of her form but she wouldn’t be the first to not handle that track, the ground had gone horrible and they all came to the nearside. On her Chester run before that she’d be entitled to be thereabouts here I think. One for a stats pointer above, Johnston/Buick always worth noting when teaming up at this meeting. What with that and the pace angle, at those odds I’ll have a nibble.
Ad Infinitum – Dubai would be my main fancy in this but I doubt I can resist £2 on the machine (betfair exchange) at her price here, 20s+ . Spencer has been riding this place superbly this week so far, getting horses to far outrun their odds. Maybe this will be another one, settled in rear. There are four places to play with so maybe EW would be advised, but I could see a decent run from here, she didn’t do much wrong at Goodwood, and won’t mind what the weather does (neither will Dubai, if it goes good to soft) David Simcock does well with his LTO winners… 28/101, 51p, +30 SP in the last two years… an angle to keep an eye on if you like that sort of thing.
4.15
You’d think this is Stradivarius’ to loose again and I do hope he joins Yeats as the only horses to have won this four times. He will regress at some point and maybe it will be today. If he doesn’t run his race, who could pick up the pieces? I suppose at 14s or so, Spanish Mission may be the one for interest change and I could see him in the top three, so maybe he’d be the EW play in this, for all he still has stamina to prove, but he looks to be improving and that price looks a bit insulting on recent evidence.
5pm
Now we’re talking, three easy handicaps to solve, the first two 3YO only! Playing in races like this regularly is probably the quick way to the poor house but i’ll give myself a fiver to spread around and my lucky pins landed on…
Royal Pleasure – 20/1 – one for Sir Mark, who’s in blistering form… 8/13,9p in the last 14 days, +26 SP, 5/10,6p with Luke up in that time. Clearly anything he runs at the moment is worth attention (he’s got a couple at Chelmsford today also) Like most of these he’s in the ‘could be anything’ category and he’s been running as if this 8f could transform him. It’s his first run on turf and that may help also. He’s well bred, a son of Kingman, and looks a stamp of a horse. He clearly has plenty more to come, especially given the trainer’s MO, just a question of when I suppose. He ticks plenty of my trends pointers above and is a decent price. Who knows if low will be a good place to be in this? I suspect they will split into two big groups, no one wanting the middle. In truth I didn’t really like much drawn high, many in this with stamina to prove (for all something may improve for it, hopefully this one)
Emperor Spirit – 22/1 – this one sneaks in at the bottom for the now inform Gosden team (they’re 5/18,7p with all Ascot runners in the last year now, +43) also and he should end up on the far side – if high is the place to be, clearly i’m done for in this race! This one is on my trends ‘shortlist’ also and while Gosden has yet to win this race, 3 of his last 6 runners have placed/gone close. This one looks like he may appreciate a frantic gallop/big field, a bit keen at Ripon, hitting the front too soon and maybe he needed it a tad. Some of his maiden form before that reads well and I thought he was worth a go here. He will prove himself better than 89 at some point no doubt, maybe today!
Dubai Honour interested me to a point at 25/1 for all I don’t want to be backing half the field as these £2 bets can stack up if you’re not careful! I’ll need a new sofa soon, some more change hidden somewhere. Maybe i’ll try the glove compartment next. Anyway, i’d be more keen if this one had a run, 250 days off here, but maybe that price allows the play, Haggas can ready them, again he hits my trends pointers.
Air To Air seems strongly fancied but I can leave at 6s in a race like this, for all that he arrives in form and did hack UP LTO. Spencer will drop him out though, settle him and come through runners as he did LTO (he rides the straight course here better than most, especially at this meeting, and his ‘straight 8f’ rides can be backed blind for decent profits over time). That makes his price a bit short also and he could well be on the wrong side low. But I can see why he’s fav and there’s plenty more to come. For all that again in this, nothing high really inspired me.
It’s one of those races, I hope the trends or trainer list works, and that if it does my pins have landed on the right ones. Highly unlikely I know but all a bit of fun. This race can throw up some big priced winners.
5.35
Siskany – 15/2 (he’s a stats qualifier in my main members’ post, I use them as a ‘starting point’ and give them a ‘star rating’ (♦)if I’m backing them, and those flat picks are 2/9, 3p, +4.5 for the season so far) here’s what I wrote in the members’ post… he’s worth a ‘star rating’ here from the flat quals above, that micro angle is pretty solid as per the report (link within the ‘dashboard’), 27/86, 45p, +80 BFSP since 2015 and was 2/6,4p in live play here last season. The team couldn’t be in much better form, 6/19, 12p +17 in the last 14 days, 69% rivals beaten. Charlie is 48/149, 89p with last time out (LTO) winners in the last two years, 9/28, 11p, +10 with horses having 2nd start in a handicap. Buick is at the top of his game and rides this place better than most as we’ve seen already this week, he also like to race prominently if he can and this horse has made all the last twice. He has been visually impressive and, as with most in this race, there is more to come. But he could be a group horse in the making, especially how he put the race to bed LTO. Plenty of his form has worked out well. It’s interesting they step him up in trip here, he has that to prove but tracking some pace in a strongly run race over this distance may well transform him again. He hits many of my trends pointers from the Ascot post and Appleby knows what’s needed to win this race. I’ve left the other one of theirs also on the list above, may be a big price on the machine, Buick usually picks right with Appleby’s handicappers here and Act of Wisdom has a few questions – 64 days off, been gelded, first run on proper fast ground (if they only get odd shower as anticipated it should stay quick) There’s just enough there at 15/2 in a race like this I think.
And one more, Soapy Stevens... These Royal Ascot handicaps are generally the toughest of the season, and these 3YO races even more so. Not races to go mad in, for all I will likely raid my TV budget for a bit on Soapy Stevens from the Ascot post also at around 14s, and bigger on the machine no doubt. These Johnston horses can keep on improving at a rate of knots once they start, and this one has guaranteed stamina. Not many horses win circling the whole field at Chester/challenging 7 wide off the bend, but he was able to and then won at Haydock easily enough, for all only a 3 runner race. This is some jump in class but a gallop over this trip could unlock a fair bit more and I doubt he’s here to make up the numbers. He hits my trends pointers also. Franny has the option of getting a prominent position from that draw in 3, a CD where being wider has actually been a positive so don’t be put off if you like one in double digits.
6.10
Volatile Analyst – 20/1 – I’ll have a small EW nibble on this one I think. Plenty of pace high and he’s a strong traveller who arrives in form and won’t mind what the weather does. He was 4th in a half decent G2 as a 2Yo and it could be now that it’s starting to click. He looks a sturdy type who may well relish a test like this. For those who like their Sire Stats… Distorted Humour may be a ‘lesser’ name to keep an eye on – his flat & all-weather handicappers over here are 171 bets / 34 wins / 61p / 20% sr/ +40 SP. Solid enough numbers and maybe worth some further digging.
I should mention Boardman – a star from a previous big race video preview – he does like winning and keeps doing so, all of his form has a solid look – he’s clearly in fine form, and if low is the place to be here, I would fancy him to be winning that side at least. Maybe 7s is fair – he is the sort who you could keep onside until he clearly hits his ceiling, but I don’t think he’s done with just yet, for all this is such a different test to all his recent runs. But if you wanted a more fancied one onside, he could be it.
*
I'll probably give myself £25 or so to spread around that little lot and if they all lose, its an amount that doesn't bother me personally, even though my heart is mainly with the jumpers, I struggle to sit on my hands during Royal Ascot, even though it's generally impossible! Hopefully a winner or three there somewhere, you'll find my in a darkened room if I have nothing to cheer deep into the final furlong. And well, there's always Market Rasen and Perth to look forward to in the coming days! :)
Best of luck with any bets as always and have fun, that's the main thing this week for me,
Josh
|
