Good Morning, Friend
I have a Paul Midgley Micro Angle for you today, but before that...
A great start with the 'August Trainers', a 7-8/1 winner yesterday. That took the 'monthly trainers' pile to nearly +100 points profit since Oct 1st, to 1 point win BFSP.
It's taken me a while to find a daily 'systematic' stats approach that works but it appears I've landed on a good recipe. I'll try and keep it going.
Judging by my inbox a few of you had a nibble which is always great to read. The 1st blinkers did do the trick.
If you missed that free August Trainers post, you can flick through HERE >>>
There is one 'qualifier' today...
4.50 Ponte ā VauntedĀ - 11/2-6/1
The purpose of these monthly trainer angles is not to over-think them really, they are doing well simply 'backing all' , and it could be argued that if you're going to back them, you just back them, starting small and building up if you please. They've been good fun to just Ā£2 BFSP win bets. (+Ā£200 now)
From there, you could of course apply your own subjective judgement as to whether you have more confidence/want more on, and test yourselves that way also.
I did add some notes in today's Members' post... hopefully Vaunted can add to the good start for the August anglesā¦ he has been very consistent and looks sure to run his race again, the niggle is that he continues to be slow away and usually comes from off the pace. From his draw in stall 9, I suspect after 1-2f he may be held up further back than ideal and will have a lot of horses to run through/pass, in a race which on paper isnāt really blessed with any front runners ā lots of pace pushers/prominent racers, but a chance they donāt go too quick, or a few jockeys will think they can steal it, and it does then get run at a solid pace. He will be staying on at the end, will it be in time/will he get the luck in running? We shall see. His first go in an all-age handicap, bolted up here two starts back and ran-on as if in form last time.
I have backed him with my 'monthly trainers' stake, but I can't say I'm over enthused to top up, but hopefully he may prove me wrong.
Paul Midgley Micro Angle...
However, while flicking through this race and trying to find something useful to say in today's post, I had a look at...
SherdilĀ ā I did just want to highlight him, if for no other reason than to flag aĀ Paul MidgleyĀ angle.
Firstly the horseā¦ I donāt know what happened at Doncaster but he didnāt run his race for whatever reason, returning 4 days later here, suggesting nothing wrong with him, maybe an off day. He bolted up the run before that, and won the time before also, in two races that are working out well. He's weak in the market at the moment and it will be interesting to see how he goes.
In any case, all of PMās horses returning within 7 days in the last 2 yearsā¦ 7/35, 14p, +11 SP.
Digging into his stats using the Geegeez full-form filter, just clicking on the trainers name and using the filters within thatā¦this took less than two minutes to find...
In the last 5 years heās had 37 handicap winners returning within 10 days of last startā¦ 33 of those have been over todayās distance of 5fā¦
162 runners / 33 wins / 67p / 20% sr / +50 SP / 61% rivals beaten
At todayās Class 5 levelā¦ 12/44, 23p, +23 SP
Those running at Pontefractā¦ 6/22, 9p, +21 SP
Class 5 + Pontefract: 4/11, 6p, +7 SP
For those of you who have your own system building/research tools, they may be worth digging into further, and no doubt the odd other trainer who excels with their 'quick returners'
So, something there to note down for those of you who like your trainer micros. That's the sort of angle I suspect will keep ticking along given the logic ā PM generally does well with his sprinters, and the āquick returnā is a training method/approach he employs to good effect, no logical reason why he wouldnāt continue to do so moving forwards, provided he continues to get the right horses/ the string donāt get sick.
As always, do with that little lot as you please!
Good luck with any bets as always,
Josh
