Good Morning, Friend

Below you can find some musings on The Kerry National, and while the horse may have bolted, it was about time we all clocked Martin Brassil's record with staying chasers.

There's also a 12s poke at Pontefract I've mentioned (now 16s, hmm), in truth a bit on the fence whether today's the day but I've been staring at him long enough and i'll let you decide! Worst case, another for that bulging tracker! :)

But first...

Forget EVERYTHING you know about golf betting…

My friends at Betchat are doing another of their live webinars where they delve into the minds of their tipsters and try to add value to our understanding of different sports and how different people attack them.

This evening, at 7pm, it's the turn of Golf, which I know isn't a punting arena for many, but if you can latch onto the right advisor, it can be lucrative in the long term. If you do bet on golf occasionally, or have any interest, then it should be worth tuning in.

Ian O’Sullivan’s ‘Golf War’ approach FIXES everything wrong with traditional golf betting, with…

✅ Regular winners…

✅ ALL bets on the Betfair Exchange…

✅ A bot to automate EVERYTHING…

✅ 96% ROC in 17 months…

✅ And 7.5% ROC in the last 2 months on his new service.

Find out how it works - and how you can grab your first month of his new Bet Chat-backed service for just £1 - during the +EV Golf Pro Live Q&A at 7PM on Thursday 21 st September…

That's tonight! Reserve your free space now, by CLICKING HERE >>>

*

Back to the horses...

3.10 - Pontefract -

Animato - he's weak in the betting this morning, 12s>16s... I had a quick flick through the card and noted that David O'Meara and David Nolan are 4/15, 5p, +40 SP together at Pontefract in the last x5 years. Danny Tudhope is on duty at Ayr.

That stat may be as useful as these musings get today, as I'm not sure what to expect from the horse! When those two combine the odd one does fly in at a price. This horse was ex Cheveley Park but when they sold him, David bought back to keep in the yard, which is always a positive.

He's clearly had the odd issue but has put a couple of ok runs together since wind surgery and now steps back up to 1m4f for the first time since his last win at Doncaster in July 2022, which was off OR82, and he now runs off 80, on what is only the 13th handicap of his life. He's well handicapped to strike again at some point.

I think this trip is what he wants. He does carry his head a bit funny, but I don't think an attitude issue given the x2 wins, but of more concern for today maybe, is that both his career handicap wins have been on Good to Firm. A novice win on softer but that may have just been raw ability. That's what's making me ponder, but GS if more of an unknown, and he is a big price. He does bump into a few 3YOs also, two of which have been strong at top of the market today. He can also hang to his left a bit under pressure! No bad thing if he tucked in on the rail from wide (but would need luck) but he doesn't help his rider at times - i suppose the type you do want a price on!

So, we shall see. I'll probably end up chucking £2 at him just in case, as I'm just on the fence and struggling to get off it - but worth flagging that TJC micro, and he will pop up somewhere, someday, he was running on last time as if in ok form. It could be he 'needs' fast ground, and if that's the case it may be that he pops up next season as a 5YO, with his mark even lower if they keep running him in the next 2 months. Time will tell, but if he handled the ground today, I thought he'd be staying on up this hill. There's more to come from him at some stage.

Do with that as you please! If I was in my old 'oh I can only mention a strong tip' frame of mind, I wouldn't have bothered mentioning any of the above, but I'm trying to at least still say something which is an interesting read, a horse or stat to note, and to give you something to mull over if you wish.

*

Listowel -

The Goffer stayed on into 5th for any EW players out there, which wasn't a bad result. Gevrey looked dangerous also but for walking through 3 out/stumbling on landing, game over. He wasn't far away at the time and would have stayed on. Given their profiles and previous best efforts, I'd like to think they've both got another handicap chase win in them somewhere. The former may well want a more galloping track and longer straight, which was the niggle. He got a bit far back and took a while to warm up but stayed on well. Gevrey cruised around, if a little keen, but Brian had him 5 wide for some reason, winner hugged the rail - he and Gordon had a big old barney before this race it appears, Gordon not hiding his frustration pre race- as he pulled Ash Tree M out the race, his 5lb claimer Danny G was free, and Gordon wanted him on Gevrey, as every little helps on the weight front - Brian refused to get off the horse, and that was that. I doubt he'll ride for Gordon again!

The winner was unexposed, in form, and not in the race until 11am or so I think, second reserve. I should have given him more attention than I did, sigh. The reserve system is great for connections, but poses a conundrum for punters! Of course you get your money back if they don't get in.

The Kerry National has a mixed record for producing subsequent winners but it was packed with a few lightly raced chasers, and we'll see how it works out moving forward. Foxy Jack's was the only one of the front 6 who you'd call 'exposed', with the rest more lightly raced in handicap chases, and most ran well to a point -

Authorized Art moved well again, but maybe finding 3m a bit of a stretch on softer ground. A clear 2nd in The Galway Plate, Willie will surely find something for him. Prom racer, jumps well. But, all those front rank may have something else in them.

Connections of Gabbys Cross must scream plenty, as if he could jump he'd be some handicap chaser - but he can't, and took another 3-4 fences home with him, which definitley cost him a place. He has some engine on softer ground. Maybe they need to try hurdling again, who knows. Some softer English fences may help him.

Back to Desertmore House - maybe this was his Gold Cup but given how he powered away, and his mark, there could be another decent pot in him, and he wasn't stopping here. Maybe 3m4f+ could be within range in time. He powered away late, although maybe visually more impressive as the 2nd went up and down on the spot, but he arrived in the form of his life.

In an effort to find something useful moving forwards, and a shame I didn't clock this sooner, but alas...

Martin Brassil / All Chases / 2m7f-3m2f / Age 6-10

52 bets / 19 wins / 25p / 36% sr / +103 SP / +156 BFSP / AE 3.53

That's since 2008, since 2020... 12/22, 14p, +90 BFSP.

Those aged 6-8, 16/33, 19p, +110 BFSP.

Martin doesn't have a massive string of chasers at any one time, but evidently knows the time of day more than most when he sources a half decent prospect. That is the sort of micro to just back blind I suppose, as you'd assume his methods won't change, nor how he finds them/the type he sources.

*

Hopefully I've said something of interest there today!

Don't forget, if you're interested in Golf Punting, you're sure to learn something in this evening's free webinar, which you can join and watch HERE >>>

*

Finally before I sign off, I have a £3 discount code for Paul Ferguson's 'Jumpers To Follow' and I'll send that out in the next few days, every little helps of course!

Thanks for reading,

Josh