Good Morning, Friend
4.25pm - Kerry National Preview
Yesterday was quite frankly rather disappointing on all fronts and I'm just about in a better mood. The only positive to my day was that Dancing Eyes came home safe and has trotted up fine this morning and we're always thankful for that outcome, but other than that, rather drab. I'll touch on yesterday at the bottom, but first...
Kerry National Fancies...
Gevrey - 8/1 (9.2 Betfair/Matchbook)
Ash Tree Meadow - 11/1 (15.00 Betfair/Matchbook)
The Goffer - 18/1 - 16/1 (18.5 Betfair/Matchbook)
Trends... these are only so helpful but 15/15 had 1+ run in previous 90 days and had all run in previous 60 days, they'd had 3+ runs this calandar year and 14/15 ran in a race for 4YO+ last start. That leaves a long list of 13 or so. Other positive pointers are 3-6 career wins (13/15) and 1-2 chase runs at Listowel previously (10/15, not a hindrance, but a positive). Applying all those leave 10/15 winners (10/50 runners) and horses that hit either of those boxes, in addition to the 15/15... Authorised Act, Ash Tree Meadow, Gevrey (hits both), Toss Again, The Goffer, Ciel De Neige, A Wave Of The Sea, Gabbys Cross (hits both) and Hurricane Georgie (hits both). The others on the long list... Salvador Ziggy, Stealthy Tom, Tully Beg.
Those trainers to have won the race, represented... Gordon Elliot, Henry De Bromhead, Willie Mullins, Joseph O'Brien, Mouse Morris.
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Gevrey - well I can't get away from him here and I suppose the poor sod would be my main fancy in this. Busselton did us a favour in this last year and with any luck one of these three darts can do the same. There just has to be more to come from this 7 year old this season over fences. It all clicked at the back end of last season, storming up the hill in the Plate at the Festival over 2m4f or so, finishing best in 4th, before an almighty run in The Irish National where he waltzed to the lead after 2 out, only to be caught late on after the last. Those runs appear to confirm that he should be a 3m stayer to keep onside and the rain has come for him. He's got a light weight, it was about time Gordon added to his 2 wins in this from a few years back, and the horse had a nice prep run over hurdles when last seen - travelling smoothly before getting tired. This has to have been the plan and Brian Hayes, who did so well on him at Fairyhouse, and last time, keeps the ride. The only niggle is whether he gets too far back, or can hold a position in mid division. They usually go hard early here and it can cause carnage, and you really have to jump, which he usually does. With usual luck in running I couldn't see why he wouldn't be storming home from 2 out. There has to be room in this mark and he looks progressive as a chaser.
Ash Tree Meadow - he owes us nothing after his Galway Plate win for us on his last start, where I think he won fairly easily and still looked a bit gawky when hitting the front there, idling a bit but I think with plenty up his sleeve. Front two miles clear. He looks ultra progressive, should race prominently and jumped superbly at Galway. If he gets prominent here, or leads again, I think his jumping could keep him ahead and get a fair few of these in trouble. He does carry much more weight here, 9-11 that day verses 11-7 with the claim, but for good reason and I'm hoping he could outclass these. It looks as if there's plenty more to come on just his 9th chase start (4/8,7p) and I suppose when you spent £140k at the HIT sales after a Point win, this is what you're hoping they become. The one niggle, and I suspect why he's double figures, is the ground - they had 10mm last night, it's officially Yielding to Soft in places, but possibly with a drying wind. They also race on fresh ground on the jumps track. It's more of an unknown, hence why happy to play at the odds. He's generally been kept to 'good' but is clearly in fine form, a stamp of a horse, and I'll take a chance. If his jumping his sticky, he doesn't travel, or can't get away from them, then ground would be the obvious excuse. Based on that Galway effort and his profile, he simply has to have another handicap chase win in him somewhere, to my eyes anyway. I think this track will suit and stepping up to 3m is a further reason for improvement, he wasn't stopping at the end of 2m6.5f up Galway's long run in.
The Goffer - a bit of a poke and I'm so so on the jockey but I'd like to think this has been the plan also and his Galway Plate run was a prep for this, especially as they fancied Ash Tree Meadow so strongly. There really should be more to come from him this season over fences also. He ran a cracker in The Ultima last season, on the back of a win at The Dublin Racing Festival in a competitive handicap, cruising into the lead after the second last and 4 of them in a line jumping the last - in the end I'm not sure he got up the hill over 25f in soft there, fading 1/2f from the line, but it was a big run, especially as he went wide also. Corach Rambler and Fastorslow have strengthened the form since of course. That effort suggests he has to have a 3m handicap chase in him when it falls right, especially as he should improve again this season. He didn't run much of a race in The Irish National but was maybe feeling Cheltenham, and Sandown was only 19 days after that also, where he ran ok into fourth. A chance those extreme trips stretched him also. He gets a first TT here, and Gordon's record with those is better than most. The jockey doesn't know him but i'll hope has sat on him at home and his 3lb could come in handy. A niggle this track may not suit, but at the price, I'll pay to find out.
Whatever those three do today, I hope at worst it's money loaned!
Of the others, well the only 'biggie' I looked at was Gabby's Cross, and could be a case of name your price on the machine. If he could jump he'd be a very good horse for these sorts of races, running on in it last year when taken off his feet, and walking through at least 4 fences. He will appreciate the softer ground and has enough good efforts to suggest he could grab a place - his jumping put me off, as did the fact that he's hardly 'progressive', and I'm not sure overly well handicapped. But he is the one at a monster price who I think could run a stormer if it all falls right and he jumps to his best, a top 5/6 wouldn't shock me, you'll hear some screams of agony if he takes this mind! Where's that sofa change...
Nothing else was really for me and if none of mine take it I haven't done a great job this time around. Salvador Ziggy no shock winner but short enough I thought given his lack of big field experience, but he's done little wrong. Aint That A Shame has those fitness stats to overcome, but maybe he will - he does have a decent handicap chase in him for sure on the evidence of last season but i'd have been more willing had he a run under his belt.
Pace... well Ash Tree M could get to do his own thing on the front again, I'm not quite sure who will take him on. Hopefully my other two are mid div, not too far back. You don't want to be near the back heading out for the final time around here really, although in softer ground a chance they come back to them.
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Yesterday was naff all round! Just a poor, poor day. Miserable.
Dancing Eyes ran no sort of race. We did want cover but she broke well again, Tom sat on her as best he could, but nothing else would go forward. There was a strong headwind, which wasn't a hindrance to front running winners on the day, but maybe she hated it, a chance the ground was soft enough/sticky, and it looks like she didn't stay either for this stage of her career. We weren't blessed with restricted maiden options (based on sales price) but evidently that didn't go well! She's fine this morning and we'll regroup.
This game is generally one of disappointment and anguish as we know. 80-85% of bets long term lose, so we always have lots to muse over there and why we have to really cheer home the winners. And getting racehorses to perform is tough also (and keeping them sound), and why we have to really enjoy the good days and enjoy.
My four picks were all a bit naff. Bluebella ran ok and I won't give up on her, I think she stayed, but didn't get a great ride, clattering most hurdles on the way round, held up too far back and then challenging wide off the bend. I can't moan too much, the young lad is a 10lb claimer for a reason and I knew that pre race. Diving in at 9/2 or so was probably idiotic. The ground may have been so-so for her also, but they could look at mares options, and get a pro back on board. She'll pick up a C5 3m handicap somewhere, someday I think.
The Bitter Moose... travelled well, found sod all. Maybe it was the ground, and I'm still not sure what it was, good to soft, Tom said he felt it was riding ok, but some horses didn't get home at all and struggled to pick up. He was one. Given his Haydock 'hot' form, I'd be prepared to give him another chance back on better ground, but he's get to win, and maybe he's a rogue. But I did like how he moved through it. I got what I deserved for diving into a Nursery handicap!
Jesuitique - hmm, if he could jump he'd have won that, but he got in tight to plenty and was sticky at a few, before then seemingly outpaced from 3 out. Maybe he needs 26f over fences, but he certainly needs to jump better, for all entitled to learn. Maybe he's spent too long over hurdles, always a danger, but it remains the case that if/when he transfers that Haydock hurdles win to fences, he just has to win something in the slop. But he won't if his jumping doesn't sharpen up and he can use himself better.
Noor Bano ran ok I thought and if still well handicapped, maybe hitting the front too soon and challenging from the wrong part of the track. She did have a fair bit of weight, made a brief bid for glory, before fading. Maybe better ground required, I still think another win in her.
Other horses who ran ok... Anonymous Guest (shapes as if needs further, this was better), Prince Eric (possibly long term project for handicaps over further, maybe next year, moved well to post and in the race, but never put in it and probably didn't have the speed for it, could look well handicapped one day) Ashariba (looked stunning pre race and you'd suspect much more to come from her in time) katey Kontent (an obvious eye-catcher who won't be much of a price next time I doubt, but would have won but for a clear run I think, remarkable she got so close in the end)
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That's all for today, as always, GL with any bets,
Josh
