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76 losers in a row... I believe that is the current losing run of Tom Segal/Mr Pricewise - albeit that is. Ouch.
Reading that helped me get over Saturday. I cursed us all again. In truth it was a nearly day. Polybius set the tone- he should have won at 12s,but didn't get a gap. He flew when he did. AS is standard practice I left the 20/1 winner of the Bunbury Cup on my shortlist of 5. Hopefully one or two of you may have ignore the 'tip' and had a go. There was a 7/1 winner flagged at Newmarket. A couple of my 'bets of the day' ran well, Charlton's looked like the winner until very late on. The rest are still running. As usual there were a handful of winners mentioned in the comments, 10s, 8s etc.
Moving on.
I have repeated it below also. It includes two horses of interest plus some thoughts on Ryan Moore, following a polite spat i had on twitter with a few punters...
Horses of Interest...
Three that I thought looked worthy of closer inspection- a couple on the AW which is rarely a happy hunting ground for me, but you never know. Two are shorter prices than ideal for me but many of you are finer judges than I at that end and you may find the following of some use...
4.30 Ayr- Just Hiss - 8/1 ... (now a NR!)
Looked interesting EW from a pace angle - the only out and out front runner on recent runs he is drawn to attack from the front here. I suspect this is a weaker C2 than Saturday. He returns 2 days later here which is the question but some horses can thrive on a quick turnaround and you are simply guessing as to whether they will relish it or drop out the back of the tv. There are a couple in here with sexier profiles, inc the Varian horse but he has a ground question as there hasn't been any rain- may not stop him of course. This one is also top rated on geeegeez speed figures. We shall see if he can lead all the way.
6.40 Wolvs- Desert Run - 10/3 ...
I have highlighted Bin Suroor's record at Wolvs with 1st time handicap starters before - 6/12,8 places. His yard is flying at the moment, 5/16,8 places in the last 14 days. This one returns after a break, drops back in trip and gets a 1st time visor - they may try to make all here, or in any case be up there. The jockey has ridden a winner for him and looks interesting enough. (that micro should pay over time)
7.10 Wolvs- Sevilla - 8/1...
Olly Murphy has had a blistering start to his training career and a case could be made to just back them all at the moment- He is 4/10,8 places in the last 14 days- I think that covers all his first runners as a trainer in his own right, having been assistant to Gordon Elliot. I believe Anabel Murphy is his mother?.. or a relation in any case and he is getting plenty from her. She may have been getting a few well handicapped so he could have a good start. Smart. In any case he is 3/9,7 places with those making their first start for him, having been trained elsewhere previously. The horse drops in class, into a claimer. He sticks with a jockey who knows the horse well. Just looks interesting. The market has been some guide with him although he did have a 16/1 winner at Market Rasen.
Whatever he does, Olly Murphy is clearly a trainer to keep on the right side of at the moment.
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76 Losers In A Row....
I believe this is the current losing run of Tom Segal, Mr Pricewise. He is clearly going through a tough time. That puts any of my losing runs into perspective although i'll hit one like that at some point. (had one of 26 on the 'bet of the day' test recently. Urgh) I'll write a post i think on this topic as it's always good to refresh the betting brain on the relationship between average winning odd/strike rates/expected losing runs.
Ryan Moore is a genius...
On Saturday I appeared to tweet something controversial- I thought his ride on Gustav Klimt was pure genius - one of the best rides of recent weeks. Many a punter on twitter thought is was a horrid ride and the horse got him out of trouble. I watched the race again and concluded this view was boll**ks, in my humble opinion (which is often wrong) No doubt he had the horse underneath him and he is clearly some talent but the ride was superb for me because...
Moore bounced him out and led for a time before others went past. Moore was then happy to just sit behind the leaders. There was a nice gap in front of him for most of the way. I noted how he was niggling him along in the mid part of the race- i concluded that the horse was just struggling a tad to hold his position over this fast 7f, down the hill. Now, Moore was keen to get him into a rhythm and race at an even tempo, to ensure there was enough in the tank for the finish. He 'could' have forced the horse forward and kept him at the front the whole way. But I think that would have been going a pace the horse was unhappy with and would have used up too much energy early on. Come the end of the race there is a chance he would have run out of gas.
So, for me, that explains why the horse was in the position he was. I do not know what backers expected- him to blast out and make all? Well, on this track/the pace they went, he just couldn't, or Moore,for good reason, didn't want him to. I don't think the horse looked happy until he hit the climb. All of that explains why he was sat just behind the pace.
The race then started to develop and through no fault of Moore's, he was squeezed. Horses to the left hung right, horses to the right hung left. These horses were in front of him at the time. It was just unlucky. If they had all kept to a straight line then he probably finds a gap up the middle with ease and away he goes. He was stuck, with nowhere to go. He was snatched up sharply losing momentum and a good few lengths. Moore could not have predicted horses form the left and right running off a straight line, right into the space he would have wanted to push through.
At this moment he showed an unbelievable racing brain. Without hesitation he darted for the left rail, around runners. He got the horse back into a rhythm and got him home. That move won the race. The alternative was surely to try and go up the middle still, with the chance that his path could be blocked yet again , this time by horses coming back to him. So instead he thought he would go around any potential trouble. He also went on the strip of turf that may have been quickest, and thought racing against the rail on a track he had looked unhappy on, may also help. He made those decisions in no time at all. A second.
I think it was pure genius. I don't think many other jockeys would have won on him this day. They also would have tracked the pace for reasons explained and would have had the misfortune of being squeezed. I doubt many would have dragged him to the rail with that speed and decisiveness. They may have given up. The horse looks to be crying out for a stiffer 7f on a more conventional track and will no doubt get 8f+. The Guineas awaits.
That was how I read the race anyway. Your view may well be different to that. But i think any shorty backers owe him one for that ride. Even if you think it was his fault he found trouble (and if you do i'd like to hear what the alternative was) you have to admire how he responded to the situation.
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GL with any bets today,
Josh
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