Hello Friend
I'm writing to you sat on a train from Ely up to Liverpool, where I'll be for the next four days. As you know, I spent 13 wonderful years up there from 2007 and I always enjoy heading back. Aintree Becher Chase day was a good excuse. It is 'the' best UK City, for all I am biased. And I'll even get to see Tiger Roll in the flesh, legend.
If you're off to Aintree and see me, do say hello, and any tips always welcome! I usually bump into a few of you and its always good fun, it will be enjoyable catching up with the Aintree regulars.
Did you back yesterday's 25/1 winner?
A solid start for the December Angles I sent you. 25/1> 6/1 winner for Philip Hobbs, for all a 40p R4, so 15/1. Still, not to be sniffed at if you had a fun interest nibble.
That's where trainer stats/behaviour can help, as there was plenty of guessing with the horse, first start for Hobbs, 700 days off and so on.
And if you want to access the daily qualifiers, and so much more, you can always take what is in effect a 60 Day Trial of my Members Club, for just £1.99
I managed to land on Blacklion for members (and myself!) yesterday at 11/2 and it was great to see him roll back the years, jumping on springs. In truth I'm yet to kick on this jumps season but it's been a profitable couple of weeks and the 21 2nds I've tipped/backed and the 7 falls/UR/BD will start converting to more winners soon enough! What a game. I could do with another Oscar Time (33s) or Highland Lodge (25s) in The Becher, I'll be trying my best to find the winner.
What else... well a couple of my members are off to Market Rasen and requested a 'through the card', which I'm always happy to do, time allowing.
You can find that below. It's in 'note form' where I try to say something useful, even if all the horses fall out the back of the TV! There's some stats and pointers to note for the future, if you like that sort of thing. We shall see if I land on any winners, usually 2/3, sometimes a blank! It didn't look the best of cards but fingers crossed...
Market Rasen ‘Through The Card’
For David and John who are off racing, and anyone else who wishes to flick through, some stats of interest for the future also, or may spark an idea etc…
12.22 – Pearl Warrior 6/4 – sets the standard on ‘the clock’ I think, for all the form of his two maiden hurdles so so. But he has shown ability and was an 80s flat horse, in theory more to come. Handicap debut here, Jardine 6/42, 11p, +38 SP with those in recent years. He’s also 5/18,9p +5 at Market Rasen in hurdle races. Possibly too short for single purposes but muggy shorty multiples maybe, if you must! I think i’d prefer him over George.
Midnight Ginger 11/1 – if you wanted change on an outsider – a chance this is a bridle horse/doesn’t find much off it at all, but his only win came over 16f and he’s been running over further ever since. A pipe opener over 23f LTO they now drop him back to 16f – could be he gets outpaced, but he’s a strong traveller at his best.
12.52 – Tease and Seize 5/4 – sets the clear standard on those with hurdles experience, should be tough to beat IF running his race of course. But a few making hurdle debut from the flat etc, who knows how they’ll take to it… this one a must for those fun muggy multiples I think. Trainer/jockey (Muprhy/Gregory) in mad form, 7/15,10p last 14 days, +26 , 10/30, 19p +5 at Market Rasen together
Liberated Lad – 13/2 – may be interesting, a LTO winner on the AW 30 odd days ago so fit, in form at least, and now makes hurdling debut. Ian Williams knows what he’s doing in this sphere/with a juvenile. For track side ‘win’ purposes, he may be worth an interest nibble.
Tom Cannon is here for two rides for his boss, when Alan has two entries at Wincanton also – he’s got this one and a ride in the bumper. Glide Down looks short enough given hurdle/seasonal debut, but worth keeping an eye on. I’m not sure which one he’s here for (may mean sod all of course), but he will be here rather than Wincanton for a reason, even if to teach these horses something.
13.22 – Lounge Lizard – 10/3 – no pressure on Adam’s ‘really nice’ comment above, but that will do for me! And in fairness, that Aintree race now has substance, 2/7,4p of those to have run since, the winner went close in a G2 – its a race working out well and by all accounts a fair bit better than this one. He will come on for the run no doubt, mentally if nothing else. Odd jockey booking mind, but still, I think he’ll be here to run his race. Daly is 8/33,15p at Market R in recent years, all runners.
He could have more class than Adjournment (another of Adam’s notes above) , who may be about handicaps down the line? But yard are going better, that was a run of promise, ‘running on’, and down in class here – so maybe a ‘just in case’ nibble on him also at 11s, with preference for Daly’s I think.
13.52 – Nocte Volatus – 7/1
Good grief. What an awful race, throw a dart, pick a number, or your favourite colour, or go to the bar!
At least the Lacey horse has upsides potential, making chase debut here… is he fit, can he jump?? Only one way to find out. (those comments apply to Avoir De Soins making stable debut for Jonjo also, for all I don’t think a trainer upgrade from Honeyball but we shall see, he’s interesting to a point also if fit, no Junior here though.. Jonjo does well in C5s here)
Anyway… Tom Lacey is 2/9,5p at the course with his handicap chasers.
With 6YOs in handicap chases… 13/52, 19p +2 in last 5 years, but 6/16, 7p +13 with Stan in the plate, and I do like him as a jockey. So, some stats method to the madness, he will be fit if they want him to be and he does have some decent hurdles form to his name.
This is a dire contest, you couldn’t have confidence on much. (cue my only winner on the card! 🙂 )
14.22 – Chase The Wind?
Again, hmm. I thought the old boy may try and make all here in a race lacking pace, and now he’s dropped in class and below his last winning mark. It could be he takes a few runs to get up to speed these days and Sean is back on. Maybe he’s just regressed but he’s interesting enough at 10/1. But he is 12, and it isn’t a Vets race!
Hard to know what Dubai Guest achieved LTO in a race that fell apart but he couldn’t have done much more, the correct fav but I wouldn’t want to wade in, but maybe it is that simple.
Miraculous Getaway – one for Adam’s notes, will clearly be winning chases at some point but they step him up in trip again – I wasn’t sure he was crying out for it yet, but at least ‘doing something different’ as a reason for improvement/a better run. That race LTO is working out ok – if he stays, he should be bang there in this line up. Maybe 10/3 is ok.
14.52 – Malinas Island – Evens –
Should take all the beating really, he’s in form, yard going well, Mulholland does well with his & day< returners, 5/13,8p last 2 years. He could be lobbed into a muggy treble/trixie with Pearl Warrior and Tease And Squeeze (and maybe the bumper horse down below)? I suppose that may be one way to try and get them all beaten!!
Wherewouldugetit – 33/1 – a possible flyer for an interest nibble. I only noted he won around here a few starts back and that was his first run in 190 odd days – it ‘could’ be that he’s actually best fresh, and as such the break is a positive. This trainer knows the time of day I think. This is dire stuff but I suspect he’s here to run his race and may chase the jolly home, and well, you never know. He does throw in plenty of shocking runs also mind and has stamina to prove, but he is 33/1!
15.22 –
Chianti Classico – I suppose the Fav looks good in this also (surely all x4 shorties can’t win?.. maybe he, Tease and Malinas I make more sense multiple wise.. no doubt the only one I haven’t really flagged, Olly Ms chaser above, will no bolt up) anyway… that Ascot effort was good, he sets a solid bar here for the rest to aim at. And who doesn’t like a Chianti??
Nollyador was a fair bit behind him at Ascot but I suppose he could take a massive leap forward, that was his debut. 12/1.
Then you’ve a few unraced horses, Sporty Jim – Olly Murphy on fire, won this race last year, Festive Glory – Fergal can ready them – Forget The Way – is this why Tom Cannon is here?
A bumper, hard to be dogmatic on much but if the fav builds on LTO he sets a decent standard for the rest to try and match. But maybe one of the others will surpass him?
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Do with that little lot as you please. They were posted around 8am and it was a quick run through, for all I hope informative/useful to some degree. You inevitably cut some corners when flicking through every race, but instinct/a quick look can often pay.
And do note those December angles, they're sure to fire out a few more winners in the coming weeks!
Have a great day and Happy Punting, Josh
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