It's been a decent enough few days on the tipping front, with both William of Orange (6/1) and Boughtbeforelunch (9/2) getting the job done and adding some coins into the pot.
My renewed focus on the staying jumps game is starting to pay off, and while i'll take confidence from the +84 points or so in those races since mid October, there's work to do, including restoring some trust after what was a bad end to the main winter jumps season (I'm still having nightmares over Aintree and Punchestown)
Anyway, you live and learn. And my 2m7f+ blinkers are firmly back on. When I'm at my best I don't think many read a 3m chase better than I do, but that's for me to prove in time. If the last few weeks are anything to go by it's onwards and upwards in the long term.
If you also like more than just following tips and you enjoy finding your own winners also, there's plenty of daily stats content to help, big meeting pointers and big race trends. (mostly on the Flat at this time of year)
All enjoyed with a friendly bunch of racing enthusiasts (three of them fancied the same horse yesterday, Captain Ryan duly obliging at 16/1, and a few members had an interest nibble, which is what it's all about)
You can take a 21 Day Free Trial to see for yourself, put me/the content to the test, and if it adds to your racing experience in the coming weeks and you want to stay around for longer, great.
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Today's Pointers
If you've already decided it's not for you, no problem. Hopefully there's something below of interest....
While my main tipping/analytical focus is on the 2m7f+ jumps (and will be forever more) I do like to share plenty of flat content, including through the week.
Below you can find my section 4 musings from today's Members' Post. It includes some reflections on yesterday's tipping race, before some stats pointers for Musselburgh.
Do note them down if you wish, but there's plenty of chat like this through the week, and some of the 'trainer form' comments have pointed to a few decent winners >>>>
4.Other/Updates
A pleasing win for Boughtbeforelunch and i'll take plenty of confidence from landing on him on the right day given his profile, and the assessment of the others which was as important. It really wasn't a great race and he was best suited to conditions, esp after the rain. You wouldn't fancy him to follow up and he may be handicapped out of things for a while again now, but a massive group of his owners looked to be there and I doubt they'll care. A good bit of placement.
I'm not sure you'd take too much else from that race really -well, the only one I could see myself backing again in the future is probably Holdbacktheriver, who's clearly a bit moody and the Visor didn't perk him up. It's not impossible that Chepstow fall has really knocked him though, mentally if anything, and maybe a break will do him good, before returning for some 3m+ muddy chase in the autumn. He is well handicapped again, that was only his 13th chase (and he is a x3 winner) and he will win again at some point, just a case of catching him on the right day.
Looking at his 'handicap chase profile', he's now 0/4,0p right handed (although had run well enough at Exeter for me to think that wasn't a problem), 2/5 C4, <6k level (as was the Ludlow race), 0/7,1p above that. Of some interest.. 2/3 when returning 31-60 days, so maybe he needs some time, now 0/7,0p when returning before that. 2/2 in January. Both wins at Bangor and Chepstow, a place at Ffos las - maybe he doesn't like travelling far from home/crossing the border! :) Wins on good to soft through to heavy, both under Adam Wedge.
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To Musselburgh...
I suppose numerically they're two trainers of note (well, certainly with runners on Tuesday)... Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston
Richard Fahey
- 5 years/all runners: 44/248, 96p, +28 SP, 57% rivals beaten
- 1 year/all runners: 10/40, 14p, +15 SP, 57% rivals beaten.
- Since start 2017, in handicaps... a micro...
All handicaps / but NOT 4YO+ handicaps / Fahey had 1 runner in race only...
84 bets / 23 wins / 42p / 27% sr / +72 SP / +101 BFSP / BF AE 1.72
He has 1 runner on the card in the 2.20, for all he doesn't hit that micro above. One to watch for future meetings.
Mark Johnston
- 5 years/all runners: 40/204, 87p, -3.5 SP, 58% rivals beaten
- 1 year/all runners: 8/33, 16p, +7 SP, 59% rivals beaten
- Since start of 2017, in handicaps... a micro...
Handicaps / NOT Nurseries (2YO only) / Horse had 0 runs at Muss / 14/1< SP (guide, 0/6,0p above)
69 bets (61 races) / 19 wins / 36p / 28% sr / +56 SP / +81 BFSP / BF AE 1.49
Overwrite would be a 'qualifier' in the 2.20.
He also has a runner in the 13.10. You do have to pick his non-handicappers, they generally lose plenty to SP/can be over-bet etc.
Who's 'in -form' ?
A couple of names, one trainer, one jockey...
Grant Tuer - appears to be going along ok... 7/37, 19p, +5 SP in last 30 days, 64% rivals beaten, 3/14,7p, +2 SP in last 14 days, 65% rivals beaten. He's got runners in the 2.55 and 16.38 who 'may' be worth a second glance. Sam James has ridden most of them recently, but he doesn't ride until Wednesday (where he's on one of Tuer's)
Ella McCain - Donald's daughter, or one of them, appears to be making a name for herself on the level and looks value for her 5lb... 14/93, 34p in the last year, +19 SP, 50% rivals beaten. 3/10,6p in the last 14 days, +3 SP, 66% rivals beaten. A few of those for Tim Easterby. Her two rides on Tuesday are for trainer/owner R Craggs, who's 6/61, 9p all runners in the last couple of years. 0/3,3p at Muss. Maybe Ella can work her magic... ?
Anyway, something to digest therefor today and to note for future meetings if you like doing such things. I'm sure Tuer and McCain will have more winners in the coming days and the two micros above may pay their way in time.
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