Hello Friend
Below you can find my test chase tip from today at Bangor, from my members' post... my main chase tips focus on the staying chases (2m7f+) but i'm endeavouring to become an all round 'chase specialist' - and I like to test myself in live play. The action will hot up in the coming weeks, but so far so good.
Today's selection is below, and if nothing else there's a few stats for Venetia Williams you may wish to note down, that will point you to a few winners in the months ahead...
I'm quite aware I don't have the best track record recently at sending you winners, so fingers crossed for this one!
Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/9,5p, +8.3)
(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)
3.30 Bangor - First Figaro - 1 point win - 11/2 (gen)
This is an awful race, full of exposed chasers who've generally been running in weak summer chases. I didn't want to be with any of them and IF the selection builds on his chase debut LTO, he will outrun these odds. It's a strange time of year to be backing a Venetia Williams chaser but this one looks to need decent ground.
There's a few 'stats' that are useful, as a foundation at least...
-In handicap chases at Bangor, with those returning 60+ days, she's 4/11,6p, +30 in the last 5 years.
-In that same time period in all handicap chases / class 4 / 60+ days / Charlie D riding ... 5/18,6p.
-Since the start of 2014 with horses running in a handicap chase, having had just one chase run previously... 11/44, 19p, +6 SP... those returning 46-180 days from last start... 4/10,4p.
The horse knows how to win and his mark keeps tumbling. On 'inform' speed figures his run LTO was the best in here, so some 'numbers' to give confidence to that effort. He generally jumped well there and may appreciate this tighter track and slightly shorter trip.
Finally, of most interest was the fact that all his wins/best form, have come when running fresh. Indeed off 90+ day breaks he's 3/8, 7p in his career. He runs after 85 days here. It's likely then that there wasn't an issue since his last run (which is usually the first thought after this sort of break), more so that canny connections wanted to give him a break - given that profile i'd like to think he'll be tuned up here. It would be very strange if he wasn't as this looks to be the time to catch him.
So, i've an unexposed chaser who knows how to win (his Hereford novice hurdle win was decent enough, a few subsequent winners in behind), in a weak race full of exposed sorts, with some decent stats, some ratings support, and his rest pattern profile.
If he doesn't take this then it's very open, but I couldn't be with any of the others, certainly those 9/2<. They are not the sort of profiles to be backing long term in my view. The selection is the most interesting in here by quite some way. Fingers crossed. He's the sort where the market may well guide.
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Elsewhere... if you missed my Nigel Twiston-Davies pointers for handicap hurdles, you can find those in yesterday's email HERE>>>
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ITV Racing Tips >>>
If you like to kick back on a Saturday afternoon and back a few horses in the live ITV races, you may wish to look at Carl Nicholson's unique service.
He comes up with a selection in each race, with a short write up. And the results to date are very impressive.
The great thing is that there's no long term commitment, you can access his tips for tomorrow for just £5 if you wish.
All the best,
Josh |
