Good Morning, Friend

I've had a look at the 4.35 from Listowel, my 10/1 fancy and write up further town below. Hopefully I've sent you another winner, but we shall soon find out!

Busselton may have been a fortunate winner of the Kerry National, Hewick getting in too tight at the last when jumping at pace, but I suspect they'd have been a ding dong battle, but the latter is a thorough stayer. In any case, I've backed a few late fallers in my time with races at their mercy and it all tends to even out over. That's the jumping game and provided they all get up, you have to enjoy those wins. Hewick was on my shortlist of 4 (as was the winner, 3rd and 5th) and I'd have been in a foul mood had he won, the only one not tipped! Apparently he's off to the American Grand National next, massive money.

That could well be a race worth following. Recite A Prayer ran as if he may have something else in him, I wonder if worth a go over further, 3m4f+, as all he did was keep on. A more galloping track may suit also. Darasso continues to shape as if he's got a half decent handicap chase in him from his mark, maybe softer ground will help in slowing everything down, or again, 3m 2f could be worth a go, or again, a stiffer course. His running style will always make it a bit harder, especially if no pace collapse. Gabbys Cross evidently has more handicap chase wins in him also, with fewer miles on the clock than most of those in the race. He was buzzy down to the start again and hence he was held up, but given an awful lot to do. He was starting to cut through them when smacking a fence down the back. However, he still stayed on well enough. I suspect he'd be happier on softer ground, and more galloping track, and possibly over further- or at least ridden more forward if possible. His jumping could be tidied up also but still early days for him. I'd like to think this race will work out ok in the coming months but time will tell.

The less said about my Perth poke the better, although he did come back lame so maybe a valid excuse. There are more wins in him. I did a poor job of assessing the form of the winner's previous course win (Charlie Uberalles) , which on further reflection was much stronger than I gave credit for. He beat a 138 rated chaser there arriving on a hat-rick (who's won a few since also!) and the 3rd arrived on the back of a win. Tut. There's a chance he didn't enjoy going left-handed at Bangor, but he also made a bad mistake early which may have knocked his confidence, especially given his inexperience. There are more make-all chase wins in him, at his level.

Again, that race may be worth keeping an eye on. Lord Napier ran well and is now well handicapped to strike again soon, Peter Bowen will no doubt find an opportunity, and he's entitled to run in weaker races than that. He was also keen enough through the race. Ballyandy ran a cracker on his seasonal return and surely from this mark there's a Veterans chase for the taking. He jumped well enough and I suspect will come on a bundle for the run. Gevrey is unexposed over fences and returned to form, ridden in a way to suggest the fancied stable mate should be given a chance to win first. A less speedy, more galloping track may suit him, but he should take confidence from that.

Onto today... my tip, as of 9am..

4.35 Listowel – Kitty Galore – 2 point win – 11/1 (BV) 10/1 (gen)

An interesting 2m6.5f handicap chase here, on what is currently yielding (to soft in places) with potential for more showers, so it could be on the softer side come race time.

Kitty Galore – I can’t work out why she’s so big here. Looks a massive price to these eyes. The main ‘way in’ with this one is the pace map (any Geegeez users can have a gander) – on paper there’s every chance she gets an easy enough lead, she’ll certainly try to make all as she does every time. I’m hopeful she’ll build up a commanding lead here, get into a jumping rhythm, slow it up down the back and kick again on the turn for home. That’s the plan anyway. IF she runs her race/jumps I think she’ll be the one to catch 2 out, and with any luck nothing does.

Stats wise… well John Ryan is in decent form, 4/21,6p in the last 14 days, he has a solid enough record with LTO winners also. Sean O’Keefe returns in the saddle also which caught the eye, having not ridden her since Nov 21, 5 starts back. He’s 3/6,4p on her, 2/3 over fences, and LTO was the first time a jockey other than him had got the job done.

The horse… well she’s 4/26,10p in her career, building up an admirable record. Importantly, she’s still unexposed over fences to my eyes, a record of 2/7 going into this, 0/2 in handicap chases. She returned after 255 days off last time, bolting up back over hurdles, only her second start beyond 2m2f, appearing to relish the 2m6f trip. That was decent ground but she went off hard, built up a massive lead, slowed it down then kicked again, from her much reduced hurdles mark. There’s every chance she comes on a bit fitness wise for that run also, for all there is always the dreaded ‘bounce’ factor (a relative quick return having evidently made a big effort last time out after a long lay off) but that’s hard to predict until they run.

She injured herself on her previous start, in a decent mares chase at Limerick, won by the 150+ rated Concertista. However, she had them on the stretch there in heavy ground, probably did too much too soon, but was still bang there 2 out, until swallowed up, and then possibly sustaining the injury as she stopped fairly quickly. Her run before that at Fairyhouse caught the eye, a handicap chase over 2m on soft enough enough, again she built up a lead, the jockey slowed down, had a look over his shoulder turning in suggesting he had loads left (as did the way she was travelling/pricked ears also) before then getting the 2nd last wrong. The eventual 2nd that day would win his next two starts, posting 130+ RPRs, so some substance there. The front 3 would have been miles clear of the rest. That was off 124 and she finds herself 4lb lower here.

She moved that day as if well handicapped, so with any luck she’s got a bit up her sleeve here today. I’m sure she has more make-all wins in her, just a question of time. Aged 8, she could be coming into her own now and John Ryan’s would generally improve for fences. This track isn’t as galloping/stiff as Fairyhouse, and given how she won LTO, there’s every chance this sort of trip over fences unlocks bundles more. She technically has to prove she stays it of course but it’s the reason for another jolt forward in improvement. She appears to handle all ground and she has a fitness edge on many of these, on paper at least, a few making seasonal returns.

I’m hopeful Sean will jump off and over this trip/ground, can lob along in his comfort zone, while building up a big lead. We should get a run for our money at least, on paper anyway! Hopefully they’ve both read the script.

The safe option, with x4 places available with most bookies, should probably be EW (and I won’t put you off as such), but I’ve become more bullish as the morning’s gone on, so sod it. She could tear these apart from the front, we can but hope. She’ll no doubt run a superb race, be caught after the last for a solid 3rd, but so be it!

Of the rest… well not much else could tempt me in at the odds. I’m educated guessing as to fitness for a few and I prefer the form/profile of the selection against some others.

I do think there’s more to come from Donkey Years – but a chance this is too sharp, I don’t know if he’s fit and they leave the CP off he wore first time when winning LTO. He beat Recite A Prayer there, who won his next start, then ran a bad race, before a fine staying on 2nd in The Kerry National earlier in the week. That is good form, and given Donkey’s profile, makes me think he’s got more staying chases in him- one to watch. It could be today, but I can leave at the odds. But with the CP left off, maybe they’ve got other plans for him, or they think he doesn’t need them. He could be a decent 3m4f+ horse in time.

Pat Coyne arrives in form but I wasn’t sure as to the level of his form. But, he tries and arrives as a LTO winner who’s fit and ready to go – that may count for plenty and assessment of ‘form’ is one of those elements you can get wrong, as per Perth, but I don’t think I’ve missed much and I was happy to leave, for all 9s may be fair. He should run his race and that may take him into the places, esp if some of these do need the run. And if you can place, you can win.

Song Of Earth could be another, if the return to fences sparks some form, having been woeful the last twice over hurdles. Again, the best form is so-so and I was happy to leave today, but also unexposed as a chaser and no forlorn hope. Ballyshannon Rose could run well if fit on return (is 2/3 fresh so could well be fine/the time to catch her). This mark asks a question, but unexposed in handicaps also. There is a question going left-handed, 0/5,1p this way round, all wins RH, but there could be nothing in that. However, at 7/2 I could leave. I didn’t really like the Mullins horse at the odds either, but he’s red hot as always, and she hasn’t done too much wrong for all I think this mark may be stiff enough and I wasn’t sure she had the ability for this, in the context of her price. I’ll live with it if I’m wrong there, as I will for everything else.

Pace… well the selection will try and make all and with any luck doesn’t get pestered. Theatre World, Pat Coyne and more so Song Of Earth could be the ones chases, and it could well be hard to get into this from further back, unless they go too hard.

Fingers crossed I can build on my recent good form, 3/10,7p, +23 points in recent weeks. Thankfully the C3+, 3m+ chases will start coming more regularly.

Good luck if following me in,

Josh