Hello Friend,
I hope you're having a good week.
I write to you in decent form, having tipped Organdi to members yesterday. I think I've collected on three of my last four tips, (inc Peregrine Run that I sent out), and around +18 points in the process. I could do with building on that. I know what I'm good at and with any luck my renewed focus on the staying chasers pays off in the months ahead. I know it will. My head is in a better place than it has been for a while, in part helped by knowing I'm not going to be a slave to my daily blog posts from May-Sept 2023 (blogging 362 days a year for 5/6 years has got to me!), putting most of the daily blogging effort into Oct - end April. It does feel like a burden has been lifted.
Moving on... I've had a look at two chases today, with tips in both. Fingers crossed.. you can find them, with write ups, down below...
x4 tips today, x6 points in total…
#1 – 2.45 Perth – Quantum Realm – 2.5 point win – 10/3 (boyle) 11/4 (bet365) 5/2 (gen)
#2 – 4.20 List – Busselton – 1.5 point win – Betfair Exchange SP (BSP)
#3 – 4.20 List – Darasso – 1 point win – BSP
#4 – 4.20 List – Gabbys Cross – 1 point win – BSP
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Tips write up…
Note: I am pondering my approach to staking at the moment, following some chats with pro punter Adam Norman (who will return in the tipping chair soon, we’re having a chat not long after I’ve finished this post). There’s a line of thinking that my more rigid 1-2 points doesn’t allow enough flexibility when confident, as the jump from 1 to 2 is too big on a 2 point scale, where as say a 1-4 point scale (using a 200 point bank say), possibly linked more to the market/confidence, could work better. That jump to 2 points, suddenly not so daunting. Anyway, I’ll be cogitating on that for the rest of the month.
Maybe my recent run of good form has given me too much confidence as I hurtle into today, but I’m feeling good, so let’s crack on…
2.45 P – Quantum Realm –
Gordon Elliot has gone back to his old Perth ways since returning from suspension last year, 23/58, 32p +22 all runners here in the last 365 days. Madness. Sean Bowen has been on most of those here, a silly 21/44, 27p, +28 SP in that time when riding for the Irish handler. So, a solid stats foundation.
The horse… this 6YO arrives fit and in the form of his life, having clicked over fences three starts ago at Down Patrick over 3m. He’s run over 20f here the last twice and has looked in need of a return to further. He got away with it two starts ago, which despite a 4 runner race was decent form – the horse he beat there of Mulholland’s was equally unexposed and arrived having won a C4 handicap very easily. Planned Paradise has yet to run since but hopefully he just bumped into one that day. He then ran again here, Sean chasing home one of his dad’s, Statuario – that horse has been consistent, arriving on the back of a decent 3rd in The Summer Plate, good form for this time of year. He rattled home there having hit a flat spot, front two miles clear, the rest stuffed. The horses in behind are 3/3 since, so they were not beating trees.
The big positive is his run style, he’ll either try to make all (if Charlie U doesn’t have pace to lay up) or he will track said horse in 2nd, the rest slotting in behind. Over this trip/tempo, it may all happen a bit easier, including his jumping, which has been getting better run to run.
He ticks a lot of boxes here, we shall see if misplaced confidence with the staking, but if he’s going to a win a C2, it’s going to be today, and Gordon will know it, putting race fitness to good use. I suppose being up in class and slight cut in the ground tempered all out 3 point enthusiasm (what has happened to me?!) – he’s gone very close with Irish cut in the ground and I don’t think this Perth Good to Soft (good in places) should pose too many problems. All he did was stay at DownP and a return to this trip could unlock a fair bit more on the visual evidence.
Of the rest…
Well Bavington Bob makes his return and it will be interesting what they do with him here. I think they’d be silly to have him a1 and to ruin this mark when he could take a hand in a decent staying pot in the coming weeks. But maybe he’s got bundles in hand as he matures. He has won fresh, so fitness may not be an issue (depending on whether this is a prep) but I wasn’t sure 3m around here, with good in the going, would be an adequate test, I’m hoping he’s anchored and as Sean turns the screw 3 out, he’s outpaced and can’t lay up. I could be wrong on that front. I was also so so about most of his more recent form, esp those wins, which haven’t been franked and a case he’s just been very well placed. Possibly. He does shape as if he wants much further but at the very least a much stiffer track. I could be wrong on all that of course, he is one to note in the coming weeks, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him in a regional ‘national’ somewhere, having a go over 3m4f.
Similar comments may apply to Jerrysback, who has a question from this mark now, I wasn’t sure on this track/trip being ideal, and hard to know what form he’s in since last seen. He’s open to attack from something more progressive for all the form of his last race is solid. Yard form a question also, but they can just pop up, and neither Haslam, nor Richie, have ever done too well around here as yet.
Ballyandy is 11, makes his seasonal return, but only his 6th chase. Probably for good reason, he’s never been the best at his fences but maybe it will click here. Again, a chance this is sharp enough for him also, and he has needed recent seasonal return to some degree. He is well handicapped on hurdles form, but if he takes this i’ll just applaud, for all he has a touch of class at his best. The yard in good form.
I thought the selection’s form was much better than Charlie Uberalles, who’s run at Bangor put me off a bit, for all maybe he hated going LH. He jumped fine, but underwhelming. When he won here he got a very soft lead and just clung on, I wondered also if open to attack from stronger stayers. If I’ve got him wrong, so be it.
Lord Napier has too many questions for me, neither Bowen brother concerned over riding him for their dad, which may mean plenty, we shall see.
That does leave Gevrey , also for Elliot, who may be worth sofa change, I’m not sure. He bled two starts ago but was awful last time after a short break. He was given reminders early, faded too far out for my liking. Maybe that 17f trip was short enough. He has a likeable profile before that, some of his form ok, but a wellbeing question, and has to prove he stays – it’s more an unknown and could unlock more, but I wasn’t fully convinced, his stablemate looks a stronger stayer on what they’ve done to date. Still, one to keep an eye on, as more chases in him somewhere when he returns to form.
Pace… Quantum should be up there, as will Charlie U , the rest slotting in somewhere, hopefully Bavington B out the back. Gevrey may sit handier, hopefully evident on final circuit he’s just out of sorts, and not tanking along! Fingers crossed.
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Kerry National…
My shortlist for this race was… Hewick, and the three selections. Yes yes, we know what happens now!
I’ll start with the one who I haven’t tipped, Hewick. He gives all of us in the syndication game some hope, having been picked up for just £600 or so by the Shark, and he really isn’t the biggest either. But yet he arrives here having won our Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, and the Galway Plate LTO. He’s now a x7 winner and £280k in prize money, not too bad! And alas, I keep getting him wrong. I wasn’t sure his jumping would be good enough for Sandown (I need to stop over thinking ‘jumping’ esp in that price bracket, he’d done fine) and I thought he’d probably get outpaced around Galway’s 2m6.5f. Wrong again! He’s had the pace for 3m over hurdles, so that thinking was more on the illogical end. He’s clearly very versatile. He will appreciate this ground and return to 3m, he should race handily, and provided he holds a position, will keep going.
The question is whether lugging 11-12 is possible, for one who’s not the biggest (although hasn’t stopped him before) and whether he can defy the 8lb rise for LTO, now running off 163, his first ever handicap mark a lowly 98. Quite remarkable, and again, giving all of us who don’t like spending silly money on horses great hope. Of course, whether he can handle the rise is an unknown, maybe he will defy it, but hopefully the combo of that mark/the weight, does for him. He’s 8s, that may not be too bad, maybe I’ve got him wrong again. But I’ve opposed him, and I couldn’t decide which of the three to drop so thought I’d just back them all…
Busselton – a consistent sod who I really like here. He ran well in The Blazers at Galway, sitting close to a frenetic pace and he was the only one to stay there that day, the others who were up there unable to sustain the challenge, the winner, who I’ve also backed, staying on from out the back. He should like this better ground also. This lad isn’t the biggest either, also versatile, but having lugged 11-12 that day, gets a lighter 10-5 here, and given his frame, that may help plenty. He’s unexposed over 3m, his effort last time suggesting well worth a crack at this distance, and they put blinkers on, which he’s worn before. He’s run well in CP before, maybe they’ll sharpen him up early. Provided he gets away, he should sit handy, hopefully not doing too much. He’s a fine jumper of a fence, JJ knows him well, and he’s got course form – having bolted up over 2m6f here in a beginners chase. Joseph won this race last year so knows what’s required and I was fairly bullish as to his chance. Of course a chance he doesn’t stay late on, but the trip is one of the reasons for improvement. He’s ultra consistent and with any luck has me on the edge of my seat from 2 out.
Darasso – I decided at double digits I’d be sick if he won this unbacked, having tipped him at Galway 33s >10s, an agonising 2nd to Hewick, the line just coming in time. In fairness the latter had been carried across the track by a loose horse and would have been unlucky. However, Darasso ran a remarkable race, struggling to keep up early as they sprinted at the start, then badly hampered after the 3rd, side-stepping/over a couple of fallers/jockeys, before working his way through the field and storming up the run in, wide. He’s been in fine form all year, the best form of his life, and I thought he could give this a good crack. For all JP has an awful record in this race (now 0/34,2p last 14 renewals), the main man jumps back on, Mark Walsh, and he’ll be here to run his race. He did run in this last year, cruising to 3 out and then not finding much – he had blood in both nostrils post race, and maybe that was a valid excuse, I’m not sure. Anyway, I wanted him onside at the price, he brings decent from to the table and hopefully can overturn the form with Hewick on these terms. The start could be crucial to him, I’d like them to try and jump him off handier, even if he then drifts back. They do like giving him a lot to do.
Gabbys Cross – one for Henry De Bromhead and it would be an emotional big race victory given their recent tragedy. This horse has an unexposed chase profile and having won a 3m Point, shapes as if he could relish this further step up in trip, having beaten Busselton LTO. It all clicked that day, the first time he’s properly settled, with the hood now dispensed with. It looks like he’s grown up and now doing everything properly, his jumping getting better also. He is quirky though. There is still room for improvement on that front but he cruised into the lead last time and just kept rolling. I thought he’d appreciate what could be a solid pace here. A couple of niggles – he has been patiently ridden, mainly to switch him off. Now he has settled better I hope Rachel may be handier, but who knows. Proper good ground a question also, for all they’ll have watered a bit, but arguably his best form with more cut, but the 3m trip may help there. In any case, there is more to come from him, he’s got the right profile for a race of this nature, and I wanted him onside at double digits moving up to 3m.
I didn’t like the others for one reason or another but its a Kerry National and I’ve no doubt got something wrong. I will mention El Barra – I thought he had a question going left-handed (jumped right at Cheltenham, mainly kept to RH now), and I had a niggle as to his stamina, my two selections above I thought both outstayed him that day, but I could be wrong on both fronts. At 6s I was happy to leave, but he could cruise into it and we’ll see what he does from 2 out.
Pace – Fire Attack may try and lead (I thought he was about to be swallowed up when falling last time, but he was still travelling well, he may run well for a long time here, and who knows, maybe he’ll stay there) Hewick may try and track the pace again, as will Busselton I hope. My other two may be nearer the back and need some luck, but built into the odds for me. El Barra may not be far away. In theory this should be run at a solid pace.
Best of luck if following me in,
Josh
