Good Morning, Friend,

York Ebor Day 4

A week of places and agonising finishes so far, Sam very nearly pulling a 20/1 winner out the hat yesterday, his shortlist finishing 1st, 2nd (the tip) and 3rd, for a 900/1+ trifecta. Anyone? Sadly I didn't land on that! My fancy in the race ran ok in 5th, but no return there, having been a bit too keen through the first part and caught a little wide/with no cover. He'll have other days.

Onto today... below you can find my thoughts on the big handicaps, my trends pointers for said race, and today's Jockey Qualifiers, with some brief musings on those also...

3.35 York

My Verdict

Yashin – 12/1 – EW

Cemhaan – 22/1-25/1 – EW

I’ve used my trends long-list below and my pins have landed on these two, so here’ hoping. Irish Raiders have done fairly well in this race in recent years and hopefully Jessie Harrington can get her name on the board here with her 4YO brute, Yashin. This is the 11th run of his life, his 6th handicap, and he brings a bit of class to the table, having won a G3 two starts back on good ground. He was wide, keen and may have preferred a stronger gallop, but still he got up to win. He beat two subsequent Royal Ascot winners there, which caught the eye, and as such it has to be some of the strongest form on show here. The one niggle is his run at Royal Ascot last year on GF, where he was slowly away and never going , but it was reported he was stiff behind and for now i’m willing to put a line through it. It could be he doesn’t travel well of course but i’ll trust in Jessie, who’s 2/12,3p +16 with her York raiders in recent years, inc a 6th in this race. Soft ground was the excuse put forward for his effort last time but hopefully it’s also put him spot on for this. Connections think he wants a decent surface and at 12s, I’ll roll the dice. If he handles the ground, gets luck in running and runs his race – all the usual caveats – I can’t see him out the top 6 here, based on that effort two starts back. He’s still improving and has some more big pots in him. He could enjoy this big field set up and being drawn wider is no hindrance in this race historically.

Cemhaan just looks the wrong price and I don’t know how he’s 20s+ based on his profile and his Royal Ascot run when last seen. He had a wind op before this season and bolted up at Kempton on his second start back, before that fine second, when rousted from his low draw to hold a position which may have lit him up a bit too much – he can just be keen, that’s him, and IF/when he ever truly settles, I suspect he could rate a bit higher than this still. In any case, he did so well there, Vauban a handicap blot who dictated the race at his fractions, but he came clear of the rest with Absurde and was just done on the line for 2nd. Hollie jumps back on today and it looks like he’s been saved for this. He’s versatile ground wise with a few wins on a rattling surface. Also of interest was the ‘potential’ lack of pace in this race, which would be unusual. Maybe it won’t transpire that way but there’s a chance Hollie can amble to the front and either dictate or be up there, possibly with clean air in front/to her left, which could well help him settle, as I’m not sure he’s great behind horses. He could well fall in a hole if doing too much but if building on that Ascot run, and with all the usual caveats, just shouldn’t be this big in my opinion. The form is already working out with Vauban having gone in again, a subsequent C2 winner and placed horse in behind.

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3.35 York: Trends Pointers

15/292, 59p

Not the strongest of trends races and I’ve struggled to cobble together some sort of logical profile but of those that had been top 3 at least once last three starts (or had placed at least once last three starts), had 0-1 runs at York previously and who were drawn in stall 6 or higher (one winner from 0-5, but has been trickier from low, but not impossible)…

That profile points to 13/15 winners, (13/135 runners, 37p, +130 SP) and IF upholding, would point to a long list of 10…

Absurde, Real Dream, Live Your Dream, Scriptwriter, Yashin, Hms President, Cemhaan, Caius Chorister, Moracana, Berkshire Rocco

Trainers (those to have won race/with runners)

Sweet William

Absurde, Jackfinbar

Live Your Dream

Tashkhan

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Day 4 Jockey Qualifiers

Micros

2.25 – Edge of Darkness (M6, 25/1<)

3.35 – Scampi (M6, 25/1<)

4.10 – Mr Wagyu (M6, 25/1<)

4.10 – Summerghand (M3, 10/1<)

5.20 – Maries Diamond (M6, 25/1<)

Pointers

1.50 York – Flight Plan (Burke/Tudhope)

4.10 – Mums Tipple (Hannon/Levey)

4.45 – Baheer (Hannon/Levey)

Musings... on another week these would have had a decent time of it, plenty of very close 2nds, but that's the game. Maybe they'll have better luck today? Plenty haven't made much sense with 'form' eyes either, and have ran as such. Remember these qualifiers are just based on the trainer/jockey, nothing to do with the ability of the horse.

Looking through the above qualifiers... the 4.10 looks a cracker... and if using the above as a 'way in' and trying to find reasons to oppose... well, for Summerghand, Mr Wagyu and Mums Tipple, you could argue there isn't any. Well, Summer at 6s could be short but he's got the ability/mark and course form to take this, winning the race last year from 5lb lower. There's a chance he's not best drawn, with most pace on paper middle to high. In any case, given he can be held onto, he can beat me at 6s, which he may do! At bigger odds, I thought Mr Wagyu may give this a good go from near the front, 5lb lower than when not beaten far in this last year, and Mum's Tipple could run well also - a 2YO CD winner here, sent off fav for this last year only to jump the path, lose his action and then get squeezed out. If he got back to his Ascot form two starts back, he'd have to be thereabouts at double figures. I think for very small change, win only, those two will do for me.

Marie's Diamond may be of some mild interest in the 5.20 also. He's on a two year losing streak, so not one to be confident in, but if he got back to his form here 4 starts ago, he'd go close from the front here. Jason may try and make all, and i thought he could do, or at least sit handy. It's not impossible his last start was a prep for this, now returning 9 days later, and having got his mark down another 3lb. Canny connections. He could take this, he could fall in a hole 2 out. But he is 12s+, so here's hoping.

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Have a great day and good luck with any bets,

Josh