Good Morning, Friend,
Below you can find a big priced poke from Sam Darby's 'Free Tips Friday' column, today's trainer/jockey stats quals, and some brief musings from myself.
Well I got some entertainment for my EW dabbles in the 3pm, a head 2nd at 12s and a running on 6th from an impossible position - Dutch Decoy must have something else in him. No complaints really, for all to be done by Ropey Guest was frustrating but I suppose he deserved one of those given some of his efforts.
He was on the trends long list but I was put off by his 2/37 turf record, 0/13,2p on GF and 0/16,3p at C2 (20k+) level and i'd tend to side with less exposed handicappers in such races- that's the game, for all I can see why some would have been tempted in at 40s EW, not me sadly! If you had a dabble, a very well done. Not much to cheer from the jockey qualifiers either for all on another day Frankie would have won on Free Wind at 6/1.
Onto Friday...
Free Tips Friday
You can read Sam's full article in the usual place HERE >>>
His final verdict... 5.15 York...
I’m no breeding expert but I’m very confident that CATCH THE PADDY (16/1-20/1) will improve for this extra furlong and if in the same form as his seasonal debut I think he has to go close in this.
He’s proven on the ground and at the course, looks well handicapped on that piece of form and has very valid excuses for his two defeats since. I’d be slightly concerned they might not go much of a pace in this but he raced prominently first time out this season and a repeat of those tactics should see him to best effect. I just hope they don’t hold him up to ‘get the trip’.
The top price of 20/1 at the time of writing looks a huge overreaction to a poor run at 6f and an okay run in a slowly run 7f handicap and I’m more than happy to back him with the 16/1 that is available with the majority of bookies in this. A price of almost 10/3 to finish in the first 4 also seems very generous given his record here.
I like Silver Sword but if this is tactical it’s unlikely to play to his strengths so he’s probably third best behind Bajan Bandit, who does still need to prove himself at this trip but has plenty else going for him.
No massive surprise if one of the handicap debutants trumps them all but I’ve got preference for the proven handicap form in this.
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Jockey Micros
1.50 – Ravenscraig Castle (M6, 25/1<) 28/1
2.25 – Courage Mon Ami (M1, any, 9/1< best) 9/4
3.35 – Highfield Princess (M6, 25/1<) 6/4
4.10 – Sisyphus Stength (M4) 8/1
4.45 – Thanks Forever (M6, 25/1<) 20/1
5.15 – Alzahir (M3, 10/1<) 20/1
5.15 – Glenfinnan (M4) 17/2
Jockey Pointers
3.00 – Haatem (Hannon/Levey) 8/1
3.35 – Dramatised (Burke/Tudhope) 14/1
4.45 – Dimsons (Hannon/Levey) 28/1
Musings...
No trends race for me today to attack, and having flicked through the above jockey qualifiers, I personally wasn't jumping up and down to wade into much there.
The exception was Glenfinnan, 17/2, each-way, in that 5.15. I suppose the eye-catching thing with him is his 2nd here at last year's Festival, in the 7f maiden on fast ground, where all he did was stay on strongly to the line. That race has worked out fairly well. I also like the fact he can race prominently and while drawn wide, there isn't loads of pace on paper in this and maybe he can amble to the front. I'm assuming he may have needed his return run at Newmarket, he ran as such, and surely soft ground can excuse his last effort. He's still go the 'could be anythings' about him as a handicapper, esp over 8f, and maybe it will all click here today, with x4 places to play with.
Hopefully I haven't picked the wrong Blading/Murphy horse from that list! In any case, he was the only one who really stood out to my eyes at the odds, for one reason or another! But I may have something else very wrong, that's the game.
I'll be following Sam in with his EW members tip in the 1.50 and it isn't a race I've looked at in any depth, but I don't think anyone would begrudge Paul Hanagan riding a winner on his final ever ride, and for his old boss, Richard Fahey. That would be rather emotional and a fitting end to a fantastic career.
The Nunthorpe looks a cracker and it will be no shock to see Highfield Princess rout them again, but i can just watch at 6/4.
Twilight Calls was a Royal Ascot 'eye-catcher' but then he wasn't hard to miss! If you're desperate for a play, he could be the EW angle at 14/1 for beer money, 4p - I'm a bit on the fence as wonder if this 5f will all happen just a bit too quickly for him and he'll be taken off his feet - on the flip side, they could go very hard here and it's not impossible those up top do too much, it may depend whether Jason Hart and Andrea A get in a early scrap, but maybe they'll be sensible. Still, Frankie has been booked and if he can keep in touch, and with the luck in running he'll no doubt need, running on into a place isn't impossible, he's got the ability to mix it. And if you can run on into a place, you never know. Henry C will find a race for him at some point. Not one to go mad on but I probably won't be able to resist a very small EW bet for interest.
As always, do with those thoughts as you please!
I plan to get some Ebor Handicap trends/trainers/shortlists up ASAP, hopefully by lunchtime, so stop by the blog after 1pm if that's your thing, HERE >>>
Good luck with any bets,
Josh
