Good Morning, Friend
Below you can find a 'through the card' from Worcester, which with any luck will add to my track-side enjoyment and hopefully yours too!
Before that... if you missed my email last night, including my preview of our Shandancer's race(7.30pm) and your opportunity to become an RTP Syndicate Owner in various horses, you can read it HERE >>>
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Before I get onto Worcester...
York Ebor Meeting
Stats -
After I've sent this email and before I jump on a train to Worcester at 11.20am, I plan to dive into some trainer/jockey stats and hope to find something of use. If I do, I will post up on the blog, 4pm at the very latest, with whatever I find, including any 'qualifiers' for Day 1. I may still be looking on the train. If such content is your thing, stop by the blog this afternoon, HERE >>>
Scoop6 -
The Scoop6 Squad is attacking the Ebor Festival and you can buy a ticket for the week HERE >>>
They're in search of their 10th Jackpot win but you also get their selections/shortlists, which fire out plenty of forecasts/tricasts, as well as their daily 'Nap' races which usually cover the cost of playing, with a bit left over. Some fun to keep you interested through the week, with the prospect of winning a slice of some chunky pots.
Don't miss out, join the Scoop6 Squad for Ebor week HERE >>>
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Worcester 'Through The Card'
5.30 - Zoran - 7/4
6.00 - Courtland - 4/1 (Next Best #1)
6.30 - Ridge Hill - 11/4
7.00 - Mix of Clover 9/1 (NAP) | No Recollection 12/1 (Next Best #2)
7.30 - Shandancer - 9/2 - EW (hopefully hits 5s+)
8.00 - Broomfields Cave - 7/2
Zoran - 7/4 isn't necessarily overpriced but if one for backing something in every race track-side, or for placepots etc, I can't see why i'd oppose him on paper. He won comfortably here LTO, building on his chase debut, dossing a bit in front I thought and value for plenty more. If he runs his race and builds on that, he's the one to beat, and could follow up well. Stat - Emma and Tom are 3/13,7p together at Worcester in the last year. The trainer 6/24,10p, +13 with all chasers here in the last 5 years.
Courtland - Stat - Peter and Sean Bowen are 11/26,13p, +5 with all Worcester runners in the last year and I thought this lad could improve on those stats, and 4s was fair enough. Maybe not wildly overpriced but he brings the best profile and form into this race. He's looked ultra progressive this summer, with wins here and bolting up at MR two starts back, over what was actually 2m7f with rail movements. He nearly won The Summer Plate, giving a fair chunk to a fellow progressive rival who maybe had a better change of gear late on, or handled the softer ground better. He wasn't stopping there as they pulled clear form a deep enough field and I thought Courtland could improve for the step back up in trip and return to better ground. He should race prominently, jumps well, course form, progressive and should be bang there, if running his race. Always a change after a summer like his he runs flat at some point of course.
I like Brief Times but think Courtland has achieved more to date, but the former is entitled to improve further, but this is a step up. He held Saint Arvan's at Bangor, who was well held himself by Courtland at MR. I like him and think he's got something else in him this summer, but maybe back up north, and I wasn't sure why he'd be ahead of those two this time, unless they underperform. Perergrine Run is carrying 12lb more than for his win in this last year, and this renewal looks a fair bit deeper to my eyes. If he takes this aged 13 off 147, I'll doff my cap. It looks to have been 'the' plan so i'd expect a big run, but younger legs to have him late on. I hope!
Ridge Hill - not a race I've a strong view on, Stat- I noted Archie Watson is 4/16,10p, +18 BFSP with his rare National Hunt Flat runners who'd had 0-1 career start previously. That's a micro worth noting as I suspect it will keep churning out winners over time. Ridge Hill cost 24k and is a son of the mighty Dubawi, and here he is, aged 4, in a Worcester NHF race. That may indicate he's rather slow but he's related to stayers and the trainer's record, and the booking of Sean, who's chasing winners for the Championship, caught my eye (for all I'm not sure he could have ridden much else in this, so that may be meaningless). One for track-side change to hopefully pay for my next diet coke! :)
Mix Of Clover - what i'm doing 'napping' him is anyone's guess but I thought potentially the most overpriced one on the card, of those I like anyway. He's a CD winner off 108, running off 105 here. That win in 2021, when dotting up. Three starts later he'd hack up back over fences off 115, so there's no doubt he's well handicapped if/when it clicks again. He made a pleasing return two starts ago, first start 237 days, where Alex Edwards could maybe have been more vigorous on him, sent off at 40s. He wasn't beaten far but did look to get a bit tired late on, having shaped with promise. I can ignore his last run on soft ground, which I don't think is for him. If that wasn't the excuse, then he won't be winning based on that effort! Still, he made headway 2 out there before weakening. Maybe he's had issues and is now regressive, but if he bounces back to his summer of 2021 best, this lot could be in trouble. I think he'll appreciate this bigger field and likely stronger gallop also.
As will No Recollection, who's owned by the Worcester Racing Club and given the horse is now 2/2 here (what a dream for them, many congrats) you'd like to think he's prepped to run his best here. He won here three starts back in a 0-120, in a steadily run affair. He can take a pull and I think needs a patient ride off a stronger gallop, which can make you look silly of course if they dawdle. The form is so-so but he's still open to progress. His next start came just 11 days later and maybe it was too soon, for a horse who probably takes plenty out of himself, then they threw him into the Summer Handicap Hurdle, a C2, in proper soft, a run to ignore. IF he bounces back to his best here, I think he'll be thereabouts. 12/1 looked big, unless he's now just out of form. I'll roll the dice.
Both those looked overpriced to me and IF running to their best, should go very well. With x4 places I suppose there are EW options for those who prefer that. Fingers crossed.
Coolnaugh Haze was of some mild interest, but not at 7/2. He looks in the grip of the handicapper but a chance James Owen's can spark him into more life, and he's had a fine start to his training career, esp with hurdlers. Some good trainer/jockey stats also. But, a game of price and 7/2 couldn't tempt me in. I suspect he'll get this one winning again at some stage though, hopefully not today, but he may not be far away. Is something better treated?
Shandancer - someone's had a go while I've been typing, having hit 5s in a few places, now 7/2 again - it isn't my money as yet! I will be waiting until I'm track-side, just to make sure he's behaved himself. He usually does, and Amy now uses a red hood and earplugs to keep him happy in the racecourse stables, but twice, at Plumpton and Southwell, he's got very worked up pre-race due to stable noise / tannoys/ other horses etc and had to be washed down plenty, wasting his energy. If he looks his usual self, on his toes ready for action, a shine in his coat, then I'll be having a go at what i'll hope is 4s+ near the off, and hopefully 5s which I think will be an EW bet to nothing, as IF he runs to his best, I think he'll be bang there and top 3, and this could well be his day! But given his profile, I'm hardly going to advise wading in at 7/2, but his time will come, and we're all praying it's today.
Broomfield's Cave - I like him at 7/2, again, maybe not overpriced but with track-side 'i'd like some winners please' eyes, it's fair, and I think he just has to be bang there. He looked like a progressive horse two starts back, bolting up on first start over 3m or so, and looked like he was about to lay down a challenge to Hungry Hill when coming down at the last, a bit of a novicey error. They put the CP on here to help him concentrate/hold a position, and he'll appreciate the better ground also. I'm sure there are more wins in him from this mark, but it does look competitive enough and we decided to run Shan in the maiden as opposed to this, for that reason. The Bowen and Jonjo horses are progressive and in-form, and some others have been running well. But I fancy Broomfield's to have a bit more about him than those, here's hoping. I think he'll appreciate this course and the fixed brush hurdles.
Stat - Neil Mulholland is 13/58, 23p +13.5 with his Worcester handicap hurdlers in the last 2 years, 6/22,10p, +35 when in C4, 4/17,6p +16 over this distance - here's hoping he improves on those stats with this lad. He is worth noting, a former point winner who looks like a chaser and should improve further for a fence in time.
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That's all for today, fingers crossed a few of those run well and Shan runs his usual honest race, and that this new distance, headgear and the 5lb claim can help him get his head in-front, which he deserves. He will be winning at some point as he doesn't have an attitude problem. You'll hear us cheering him home if he's in the mix after the last, which he should be, if jumping to his best.
GL with any bets,
Josh
p.s don't forget to join in with The Scoop6 Squad for this week's Ebor Festival, which you can do HERE >>>
