Good Morning, Friend
A 13/2 poke for you to muse over below. The last horse I sent out to the free list won at 8/1, so here's hoping!
Sadly Sandown is off tomorrow so no Vets Finale to enjoy, always a race I look forward to. Hopefully they can reschedule it for the old boys, as it's some prize pot.
Our Blazing Soldier makes his debut for us tomorrow at Newcastle, in the 1.40pm. 14 of his owners will be track-side cheering him on. He's fit (but obv not race-fit) and working well, but in theory should be seen in a better light once over 2m4f+, and is a chaser in the making. We hope he'll travel/jump well until the top of the straight, and we'll see what he does from there on in- we think he'll get outpaced and possibly be left behind and will be looked after from there on in, but if he surprises us and is in with a chance at that point/thereabouts, Jamie will ride him to win. But we'll be happy if he travels with enthusiasm, jumps well, enjoys himself, shows something until 3 out and as always, comes home safe.
The final 25% has been released him him, so if you fancy getting involved in a northern jumper, you know where to find me! :) We're also in the process of adding another jumps horse to the northern string, who'll go into training with the excellent Sam England and be ready to run in Feb! Exciting times.
Onto today and one from today's blog. I've put up three pokes today and the one below is probably the most solid, just a question of whether he'll need the run or not, the market may guide. He hits one of my 'trainer track profiles' angles as a 'way in' and is potentially a January Trainers qualifier...
1.55 Muss – Leading Force – 13/2-7/1
Leading Force – another from the stats and he hits a couple of angles – well, he’d need to be 6s< SP to officially hit the Jan angle, but he does have bigger priced winners, they’re generally just harder to land on. I’d want to see some support to suggest he’s fit, but he’s had plenty long enough to be prepared for this. Maybe he’s had a niggle but is hopefully straight here. I think he’s the most exciting handicapper in the race, some of his maiden/novice form last season reading very well. Those efforts behind General Officer, Cruz Control and Endless Escape (she came into that with an OR 127 on the back of a three timer, Leading receiving just 3lb) suggest this mark of 110 should be more than workable. His Hexham run was ok, looking the winner most of the way but getting done late, maybe that stiff 20f on heavy proving just a shade too much. Ayr next time out may have been too quick, for all he could have been over-the-top by then.
Trainer/jockey are 2/8,3p in the last 14 days, Sandy can prep them on seasonal return, and he’s 3/14,5p +5 in last two years with horses having second start in a handicap. Trainer/Jockey are 7/24,11p in handicap hurdles around here in the last 5 years, 3/7,4p over this distance. Fingers crossed! In any case, 13/2 looked worth a stab- if he drifts I’ll assume not fit, alas. But if he’s fit enough here, this lot could be in big trouble, as nothing in here could match those maiden/novice efforts in my view.
The two at the top of the market may fight it out but they’re both moving up from weak C5s. Lihyan has a question of this is on the softer side, but if handling it should go ok, Duyfken has wins in him, but stamina to prove in soft for all could improve for it, but needs to. They were short enough I thought and I expect mind to just have too much class – IF he runs his race.
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Good luck with any bets,
All the best,
Josh
