Good Evening, Friend
Market Rasen... via Newmarket...
It's always pleasing to bounce into the weekend with a spring in the step, Ike Sport hacking up under a superb ride, from a super-confident Sam Twiston-Davies. A place wasn't in doubt from 1m out and the win from 3 out, assuming he jumped. Job done. Before that race I was cursing not having a penny on Sam's previous winner, Push The Button, who also hit my Sam Worc/2m4f/Hurdle stats flagged in this morning's email. Doh, I'll be good one day :) . Had it been the 1st October, that horse would have hit my previously shared 'October' angle for Big Nige... bugger. Still, I won't complain, too much.
Nigel is now 4/4 with his 'winter' returners after a break, and evidently a yard to keep on the right side of. One of our Blazing Soldier owners, who knows his onions, informed us he'd heard Willy Twiston-Davies is playing a greater role on the training side, maybe his youthful enthusiasm and some fresh ideas are having an impact on the string.
Another of our owners has a share in Ikarak also, who chased home Ike Sport. Milton Harris had told them he'd have liked to get one more gallop into him, so maybe we can expect a fair step forward fitness wise next start. His French form was in heavy, so maybe next time on even softer ground will do the trick, he's got wins in him, lightly raced. The rest in that race may well be 'summer' horses, who didn't appreciate the rain, or indeed that strong pace, having been dawdling around in smaller fields for the most part.
That's enough looking back... hopefully the following musings may help you land on a winner or two...
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3.40 - The Cambridgeshire
Dual Identity / Crack Shot / Merlin The Wizard
My word. Well, hopefully my write up gave confidence to Ike Sport and my strength of feeling. I can't compare that fancy to having three pokes in a 35 runner flat handicap, one of the most competitive of the year! I'll be chucking some change at these three for interest, as I've no idea how you can ever be bullish in a race like this. I was bullish at Worcester, if you couldn't tell.
If one of them lands, hurrah, if not, so what, all good fun. This 'freedom' with these big race trends races, and just betting with 'interest change', pressure off, is probably the reason they've landed on x3 25/1 winners since Day 1 Royal Ascot, a 66/1 place, and a few other shorter priced winners in the mix also. It's a game to enjoy, and I no longer stress over 'tipping' as such - you can read the info, my views, reasoning etc and make a call. :)
As always, some method to the madness...
The TRENDS... applying my 15/15 and 14/15 stats, previously shared, would point to 12/15 winners (12/167, 39p) +257 BFSP, and obviously they may not have found this year's winner... BUT IF this profile holds, it would point to...
Greek Order / Dual Identity / Crack Shot / Merlin The Wizard / Terwada / Haunted Dream / Bluelight Boy
I have just focussed on that list, so if it doesn't include the winner, I was never getting there! You may well like one of the other ones, don't let me put you off.
The fav is Greek Order and maybe he'll just waltz home - the one question with him is proper fast ground, Good to Firm, which this is, no rain forecast. He's never run on ground that quick, so we shall see, his action suggests it's a question. He may relish it, he may not.
Dual Identity - he was 3rd in this last year off 4lb lower and arrives back in form, on the back of a facile win. Last year he had to do a lot of the donkey work himself on the far side, hitting the front early, beating the rest, but the nearside got up and nabbed him. He's drawn in the middle this time, I've no idea if that's a positive or not but maybe Marco will come nearside this time. I think the more interesting, in-form, horses are middle to high, and unless a massive track bias, at this stage i'd say this nearside may be the place to be. If this horse runs as he did last year, he has to be in the mix, for all proper Good to Firm is a minor question for him also.
Crack Shot - the horse is unexposed, in form, Ed Walker is in fine form, wants quick ground I think, and is unexposed over 10f or so - this could unlock plenty more. Goodwood on soft can be ignored. He may or may not be good enough in this but certainly more to come, light weight, drawn high. Fingers crossed for a big run, I've no idea if he'll handle the dip/ undulations!
Merlin The Wizard - similar comments apply to this one, unexposed, in form, looks to be getting better run to run, and stayed on over 8f on the July Course, in a slowly run race, as if he'd devour this sort of trip, run at a proper gallop. Again drawn high, and he may well have a wall of horses in-front of him. Good to Firm is a question for him, an 'unknown' though and unlike his stablemate (7/2), he's 14/1+ . Roger Charlton is in fine form, 24% SR with LTO winners and 8/35,15p +5 at the Newmarket tracks in the last 5 years.
So, those three will do! I thought Terwada needed a bit more on that York run, but that's not impossible, looked good before that.
Haunted Dream looks in the grip of the handicapper, or keeps bumping into better treated rivals. I thought less exposed horses may have him, but he has C2 hardiness which will count for something. Ed Dunlop and Morgan Cole are 5/25,10p together in the last year, I believe she's now attached to the yard, good 5lb claimer. A combo to note more generally. I could see the horse placing, but does he have enough in hand for the win?
Bluelight Boy has a few more questions on overall form, but hits my trends and is 80/1, you never know! Yard in form.
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3.55 Market Rasen - DEAD RIGHT - 13/2, 7/1 - EW
I've had a glance at the feature jumps handicap of the day and this race does have a 'summer chase' feel to it, I'm not sure any 'winter lurkers' to be scared of. It's been dry enough and it should be good ground , no excuses for any of them on that front.
I'm going to stick with Neil Mulholland here. This race will be Dead Right's Gold Cup, no doubt about that. I know he's 11, but he's not over-raced, 5/17,9p in career, 2/11,5p in chases.
He's 1/2,2p at the course.. both those runs in this very race, winning it in 2020, and 2nd last year, when nearly getting up. He was nearly BD at the first fence, in a race not run to suit, staying on well to the line. One True King won that, who re-opposes here for the in-form Twister.
Dead Right won when last seen at Taunton, 1st CP, and he hit the line hard there, motoring late, from a solid yardstick. He's only 1lb higher here. This horse doesn't take much racing, but is best fresh... he's won off 300+ days on three occasions. His other returns after a break were in a G3 at The Festival, which was far too deep and he's not great left-handed, at Perth in Sept 21 when taking a few fences home with him and nearly winning, and last August's return was over hurdles, where he lacked the pace, also left-handed.
This is more his thing, with rail-movements it's 2m6.5f or so, and it's a big field with a few front runners - it should be run at a proper pace which is ideal for him. Now, he will regress at some stage, but on all known evidence, he's the one I want to be with. I think this is a shade overpriced, and x4 places with some bookies. The one niggle is whether he can hold a position close enough, with ageing legs, but I'll take a chance he will, and if he doesn't, so be it. He will be running on late.
He'll do for me, and we'll see if I can get back to back jumps winners for these musings! Anything could happen with the Newmarket pokes, but you never know! :)
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That's all for Saturday's racing.
I may well send out an email at some stage tomorrow, with a look ahead to Sunday, where all being well I will open the doors to my Members Club, which returns having had a break since April, while I thought through a few things, about my approach to content, my week, what I enjoy about this game, what you enjoy, my pricing (it was too expensive) and so on. And I've also got Paypal back, for now at least!
Hopefully you've enjoyed reading my emails since May, I think my content has been more useful /engaging/ interesting than it has for some time, and with any luck some of you have enjoyed it!! :) The jumps is back, my mind is fresh and I'm once again excited about the game. Hurrah!
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Speak soon, and GL with any Saturday wagers,
Josh
