Good Morning, Friend
To Worcester we go...
But first, don't forget to grab your free Trainer Track Profiles stats report, HERE >>>
Over 200 of you have downloaded it so far, and you get such gems as Nigel Twiston-Davies & Sam Twiston Davies record together in handicap hurdles at Cheltenham, with 5YOs...
12 bets / 5 wins / 6p / 42% sr / +17 SP / +18 BFSP / AE 2.78
Hopefully they can have another such winner this season! There's that handicap hurdle angle, plus 76 more... HERE >>>
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I hope you don't mind but this may well be the first of two emails today, with one to follow early evening with a look at the big handicap from Newmarket (diving into that is brave or stupid, we shall see!)
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4pm Worcester - IKE SPORT - 12/1 - EW 5p
My lucky pin has landed on Neil Mulholland's charge, in the feature race of their card and a 'seasonal finale' worth £36k to the winner. I am really struggling to work out why this one is double figures, I don't understand, maybe I'll soon find out but he just looks far too big here.
Firstly, some stats...
Neil's record in handicap hurdles at the course in the last 2 years is decent: 12/57, 22p, +134 SP.
With 5YOs, that improves to: 5/10,7p, +111 SP. Not bad!
When Sam is riding Neil's hurdlers over this CD, 4/20,8p, +10 SP. I'm seeing it as a positive that he's not on his Dad's horse here, and he'd have had the choice.
Sam rides this CD well more generally, esp the hurdlers... 6/26, 13p, +31 in the last two years.
The horse...
They've had 8mm of rain overnight and it's now good to soft, soft in places, and I'm not sure that will suit many in here. It won't bother him, with form in 'winter' soft, and all sorts of ground, no excuse there.
He qualified for this race with a win here 81 days ago, and they must have kept him back fresh for this, protecting his mark. He won at Taunton in March off a 123 day break so again, on paper, no excuses there, he's clearly one they can get fit off a break and I like the fact he comes here fresh, ready for his 'gold cup'.
He's 2/11,7p over hurdles and I think a bit more to come. The fact he's versatile ground wise is a positive but he has some really solid form, especially in the context of a race like this. That Taunton effort was good, front two clear, beating a Nicholls horse rated 117 who then won on his next start. Huntingdon was good, front two clear, inexperienced jockey but just bumping into an unexposed one receiving lots of weight, but still a decent effort, and he cruised around on soft there but maybe doesn't want it quite as testing. Fontwell can be ignored when clattering one four out, game over, and 19f on good appeared to be happening a shade quickly for him. His last three runs have been decent, another solid 2nd at Ludlow where he may have appreciated a more solid gallop, but the three horses behind him all won at least once on their next two starts. Southwell was decent, handicap debut, held up, race run at a crawl>sprint, and he could never quite get there, but would have won in 2 more strides, and it indicated this sort of mark was workable. And then the qualifying run here, unchanged mark, travelled really smoothly, stayed on well once Sam got in, again front two clear (always a positive sign), and he beat the right horse. Soldate Forte, 115, in form.
I like his profile, he's unexposed but still has a level of battlehardiness here, conditions no problem, course form, Sam on, returns fresh. Provided he runs to his best, gets all the usual luck in running required, I struggled to see him out of the places here and he should really be bang there in the mix. There looks to be a bit of pace on also which will help him.
What could possible go wrong?! Anyway, at 12, he's the one for me, he looks far too big here.
I like Amy's Young Merlin, but not at what was 9/2, he's in form, could improve for the distance and won't mind the ground. He will need to jump better than he has at times, that's my only niggle, in the context of his price, but I hope he goes well for them. I'm not sure what his form is worth but he could be bang there. Not overpriced though, to these eyes.
I also like Our Scholar, but i'd have preferred the rain to stay away - were this proper 'good' I'd have thrown him in the mix also. I suppose it's more of an unknown, and maybe he'll cope with it just fine. He's got a likeable profile and some solid form also, for a rookie trainer who's started well, dual purpose and at 18% sr so far. He's also 6/16,10p, +32 with LTO winners, worth noting, evidently getting them to hold their form. It is just the ground, for all I wouldn't put you off a saver of sorts I suppose, but will he get stuck in the mud? We will find out.
In any case Ike Sport is the EW bet for me in this race, i'm expecting a big run and hope he's read the script! For all it's a novice handicap hurdle, and most of them arrive in form, but with 5p to play with, I couldn't resist and EW stab. Fingers crossed.
GL if following me in, or if you like anything else in the race (well, not too much luck!).
I'll be back at some point with a preview of The Cambridgeshire, hopefully early evening rather than tomorrow morning,
All the best,
Josh
