Good Morning, Friend,
Today i've pulled together some notes on a couple of horses running today, to flick through, absorb and ignore as you please! The first is worth throwing in the notebook whatever she does today, and a few trainer/jockey stats to note for those of you who like that sort of thing...
1.15 Newcastle – Perculator – this one was more interesting at 6s last night and I’m on the fence at 4s (maybe she'll drift) – my instinct is that she’s not the biggest and this actual weight of 12-00 (12-6 with various jockey allowances, no sauna’s/back protector etc) could anchor her in this ground – she could well be better against her own sex and in a 0-110 or with a claim, to help offset some weight, however I think she has the best form on offer in here, on just her second run in a handicap.
Her bumper win was on heavy, showing a fine gritty attitude, and this is her first run on heavy since – hope rests that it does the job. Her novice hurdle form around Catterick three starts ago reads really well, staying on having been outpaced over 19f but having been up there from flag fall. The winner that day came into it rated 125, since pitched into a G2 and not running overly well but arrived into Catt in fine form. The second, Howlingmadmurdock, won a C4 around Sandown off 118 on his next start, and the 3rd then won a novice, RPR 114. She did carry 10-9 that day but it’s a piece of form, and an effort, which suggests this sort of mark, in this sort of race, really should be workable one day.
She’s run on Good the last twice, outpaced, but did run on at Wetherby and that was a solid race for the grade, much better than the Hexham form of the two above to my eyes.
So, one for the tracker I think- maybe she’ll get away with the weight but it’s some burden and 4s may be skinny enough. She may try and dictate also, which could help. But her previous form suggests she should have a mediocre handicap in her when it falls right. That could be today, it could be on her next 1-3 starts.
The two above her are interesting, and neither winning would be a surprise, Pipers Cross running well LTO suggesting he'll just keep galloping, the Richard's horse having his second start after a wind op and may step forward - his jockeys claim ensures he's got no weight today, which could be crucial if this is a bog.
Nicky Richards and young C Rabbit are 6/20,9p +13 when teaming up in the last year, and the yard are in fine form... 7/18,11p all runners in the last 14 days.
Some further stats to note also…
Mark Walford and Tom Midgley in the last year: 9/38, 15p together.
They’re 5/22,5p together in handicap hurdles, although only +0.63 SP
Tom rides Newcastle well more generally, in all handicap hurdles here… 6/21, 8p, +31 SP, which is worth noting. For all it will get harder for him as that claim reduces.
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3.10 MR – Starvoski – 6/1 – i’ll mention her, if only because her last win, five starts back, came in 1st time CP (cruising around), and now she gets a 1st time visor – will it make the difference? That previous win came on the back of some dull efforts over fences so a chance she bounces back. Her return to hurdles LTO was a bit lacklustre, which is holding me back from being more confident, although in three runs around Warwick she’s never gone with much zest late on. Maybe she doesn’t like the place. There’s a chance she wants it softer also but there’s no doubt she’s well handicapped again now, some of her form reads ok.
The yard are going better now also, Bailey & Bass 3/15,6p +10 together in the last 14 days, worth noting. And Kim has a decent record around MR more generally, 10/42,18p, +12 with all runners in the last 5 years.
To my eyes it looks an open enough race, the three with sexier profiles above her in the market have enough questions and maybe 6s allows a small play – it does all depend on what that visor does, but she could cruise around here, or put in another moody effort.
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GL with any bets,
Josh
