Good Morning, Friend

Let's jump straight to it...

You can find my trends for tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup HERE >>>

You can find today's blog post HERE >>>

My own thoughts are down below...

*

Today’s Tips & Notes

A couple of ‘tips’ from my trends handicap and a Chelt ‘through the card’ for interest…

1.10 Chelt – Young Lucy – BFSP win

1.10 Chelt – Il Va De Soi – BFSP win

*

Cheltenham – ‘Through the Card’

These are not ‘tips’ as per above, I don't spend nearly as long, usually a relatively quick flick through with instinct eyes, trying not to over-think, which sometimes works well, sometimes doesn’t! Use or ignore as you please, fun money, multiples, forecasts etc. There is always some method though…

1.45 C – Springwell Bay – I started looking at this race thinking Hyland at 3s may be big given his LTO CD win over fences, here, and Nico may try and make all and test these. However, I watched Springwell’s Chep run and it was so impressive, I could see why he’s strong in the market. He jumped well, and with intelligence, putting himself right at a few, over a trip short of his best, and in a race now working out. He was a smart hurdler including here, and should relish this step back up in trip. He’s a buzzy sort and i hope Jonjo has him up there. Of course any novice can make a howler and lose confidence, but he’s a nice horse and if he jumps as well as Chepstow, could take some stopping.

2.20 – Jonbon (no bet race for me, bar a fall he should win)

2.55 – Tommie Beau / Conflated – the top two in the market here, nothing too original but Tommie has to go well if taking to this challenge – that’s the question, he may hate it, but will appreciate having a light weight and will feel like he’s been let loose, given what he usually lugs around. He jumps well, stays well, and should make everything else work for this – if taking to the test. Conflated – well it won’t be easy but at his best he’s just so much better than these and the weight may not matter, especially as these races are rarely truly run, more a dawdle, and I thought this was a weak renewal. He can be scratchy at his jumps which gives everyone else hope, but if really should be bang there here. Hopefully Tommie gets away, he’s such a likeable horse. At a glance I struggled to make a case for much else but this test can spark horses into life and transform them and nothing is ever a total shock around here.

3.30 – Valgrand – we will see if the right one of two, team Twister think the world of theirs, who won well LTO also for all workmanlike, whereas Skelton’s bolted up, for all over 2m. He’s open to improvement over 2m5f also, and it could be some tussle and solid form, assuming they both pull away. A good little contest in store, I think Val is pacier, but Twisters may just keep galloping, and Val will need to stay.

4.00 – Callin Baton Rouge – EW 5p – a 20/1-22/1 poke, EW. He arrived in decent form when appearing here LTO over further, unexposed. He’s a strong traveller, who cruised around here last time, before a bad error 2 out, losing his pitch, before working back into it and then tiring. I wondered if a strongly run race over 2m may be ideal, which he could get here. I think there’s another win in him somewhere, maybe he’ll be outclassed, but James hadn’t moved on him until that error and he was creeping into it. If he’s in touch after 2 out over this CD he should storm up he hill and if running his race is hopefully in the mix at a price. It is an open race, and one where it’s hard to be dogmatic given how unexposed they all are, but recent winners have all been big prices.

*

Notes….

1.10 –

I’ve used my trends as a guide in this and my pins landed on these two. They’re both weak enough on betfair which doesn’t fill me with confidence but my money is down at BFSP, so fingers crossed. Both have further handicap hurdle wins in them, so hopefully in a worst case, money loaned!

Young Lucy – she’s a poke which may not amount to much, now 20.00 as I type, but Tony is in decent form, having served his short ban, 0/5,4p in last 14 days, and he’s won this race twice with very low weighted horses, for all some time ago (1999/2006), he’s due another! There isn’t too much to go on with this mare but she has a profile where she may not be up for it, or has 20lb in hand. Neither would surprise and at the odds, I’ll roll the dice. I think she wants decent ground, and hacked up in a Cork NHF on Good/yielding as a 4YO, the 2nd of which couldn’t stop winning after inc a graded NHF at Punchy Festival. She was handicapped over hurdles in softer ground after that, and has had a few spins on the flat, all while maturing. She returned from a break with a solid run in a staying race on the flat, and I thought looked intriguing here, but it’s likely to go one of two ways!

Il Va De Soi – the market weakness is a concern given the esteem young Harry D is held in as a trainer going places, the horse’s porfile/form. He had some solid efforts in novice hurdles up against good horses, before making a mockery of his first two handicaps, winning as he pleased, and looking green while doing so. I’m in no doubt there’s bundles more to come, Alice S is very good, gets on well with him and has won a few times around HQ. This has been the plan and he won’t lack for fitness, Harry can ready them and has a 30% SR with LTO winners. The one question, and maybe the reason for the weakness, is the going. It could be he ‘needs’ soft ground, for all an unknown and some of his earlier efforts were on quicker. They may have watered plenty here. It could be he never puts down or gets outpaced, we will see. He’s a winner in waiting but if handling conditions will run a monster race here and looked a decent price.

*

re-cap-

I certainly did get Stung, not much to cheer from Thursday’s poke, who was weak enough in the market. I was excited turning for home as he cruised around, but as soon as Tom asked for an effort, he back-peddled, like a horse with issues, either physical or mental. We will see if Kim can work his magic as I remain convinced he’s better than his mark, but whether we ever see it, who knows. Maybe a fence in time will spark him up. A few of the shorties won from the stats list, not that I was on, an easy ‘hindsight’ treble lurking.

From the races I watched, I thought Geordie Knight and Phoenix Risen looked like NTO winners if well placed/conditions suit, no doubt stripping a bit fitter. They were both 2nd, big gaps back to 3rd, so may not be missed. They’re no world beaters but have C5 wins in them from their marks. Zmiinyi ran well on chase debut behind a rejuvenated/well handicapped/in form horse. He generally jumped well and I’m not sure if that track suited, could well want further. He’s moderate, and has to prove he can win/stomach for a battle/respond to pressure etc, but it was an ok effort and there are a lot of weak C5s around.

*

GL with any bets,

Josh