Good Morning, Friend

It's fair to say winners help lift the mood in this game, and given how hard they are to find, you do have to enjoy booting them home!

Yesterday was a good day with 9/1 & 9/2 winners (and a loser), taking my total points profit, to 1 point bets, since Day 1 Cheltenham Festival in March, to +90 points... or +£900 to £10 bets or +£1800 to £20 bets which is around my own comfort level, but yours may be £1, £5, anything in between, or nothing at all! :)

A silly 70% ROI which won't be sustained for all I'll enjoy it while it lasts and I've plenty of profit to play with. Of course, with a 14-15% or so win SR, I'm always braced for a heft losing run, such is punting!

I heard a fascinating stat yesterday... that only 3% of recreational punters win long term... which I knew...what I didn't know, is that 2.99% of these are thought to be 'matched bettors' - which means 0.1% of recreational punters like you and me, win long term with 'value eyes' - I can't think it's that low, but maybe it is! (I find matched-betting mind numbingly dull and it isn't for me)

For me it helps emphasise the importance of enjoying the 'journey', win, lose or draw, including the buzz from picking out your own winners. There's no harm at all in setting a 'hobby budget' for each season, or each week, and if it goes, it goes. Of course, we all want to be in that 0.1% long term but this is a game to enjoy in whatever way you please. Onwards...

Today's blog...

You can find today's blog post HERE >>>

The stats content has been up since last evening. Today's racing is woeful, but one of them caught my eye, for all he's a bit weak in the market and one of the dangers has been backed.

Before that... BIG RACE TRENDS...

I've dived into the first race at Cheltenham tomorrow, a race I won last year with a 16/1 shot (and did tell you all). Hopefully my trends profile helps us all again.

You can read that HERE >>>

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Onto today...

Today’s Tips & Notes

Just one from the stats pile above (on the blog), who appears in a couple of spots, as always, with my own subjective eyes! It’s is truly a woeful day’s jumps racing, in part due to the going, but many an issue with our great game. Cheltenham will be well watered and as safe as it can be, and Friday’s field’s are generally depressing, bar a couple of ok handicaps…

3.15 MR – I Got Stung – 13/2-7/1 – Win

I’m diving in win only but as always, staking/EW etc is a personal choice, but I’m generally much more comfortable on the nose… a decent 2nd now incoming!

This lad may just be a boat, but the positives are the yard form of course, a decent 30 days or so and 4/14,8p in last 14 days, and Tommy Bells is on – I don’t know if officially confirmed but he looks like stable #1 at the moment, and they’re now 9/29, 15p together. That will level off at some stage of course. Kim does well at MR, more so with chasers but 5/27,12p in handicap hurdles last 5 years, 3/11,5p at C5 level, 1/3,2p CD/C5.

It is the run at Ludlow last October, in a novice hurdle, 2m, 4/15, given a tender enough ride having travelled well, for all outpaced, beaten 17l. He travelled well with the front group for a time before they pulled away. That race has produced x14 subsequent winners, with most of them in front now 120 ish horses. The three in front have won x8 between them since, all now rated at least 120. He’s here of 91, and while he’s not a 120 beast, it was a run to my eyes that suggest one day, he’ll leave this mark behind. Not much went right after that, maybe he was too big/raw, or he just went off the boil, which can happen with young/inexp horses. He returned 21 days ago over 2m5f at Ludlow, travelling well, getting stuck behind a couple rounding the bend, but he was last off the bridle, a bit outpaced, scrappy 2 out, stayed on fairly well before then blowing up a bit. Sent off 12/1, he shaped as if needing it. This is now his 2nd run back, in a poor race, and he steps up to 2m7f for the first time. His dam stayed 3m and he’s related to a few other 3 milers. This could be his trip and a reason for improvement – notwithstanding he’s only 6 and a unit, who’s probably just needed time. As I said, he could just be a boat, and he could be a monkey, but at these odds, given all of the above, and the oppo, I’ll roll the dice

The fav may take this again for all whacked in the weights for winning a poor race over shorter, 50 days off for some reason, and now up in trip, with stamina to prove. He could win well again but I’m happy to oppose and if I’m wrong, oh well. Mulholland’s 10YO has similar questions also.

I can’t say I liked much else… although I will mention Geordie Knight... I was put off by lack of a run/yard form with 60+ day returners, they can ready them, but infrequent, some ok novice form and shapes as if 3m could unlock more, if he was fit, he could throw down a challenge.

So, we will see, but an improved monster effort from Kim’s horse wouldn’t be a shock here and I’ll have a dart. He could just be moderate and that Ludlow novice effort is deceptive, but he moved that day like a horse who could be better than this mark in time. Only one way to find out!

Good luck with any bets, Josh

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A decent day on Wed, 2/3, +12.5 points to 1 point win bets. That takes my total to around +90 points since Day 1 Cheltenham Festival.

re-cap -

I do think the 1.25 Bangor could be worth keeping an eye on, ‘at it’s level’. Pull Again Green keeps running his race but 135 probably sums him up, he’ll need to be well placed, for all does keeping bumping into one or three. He’ll fall in one day! Monte Igueldo shaped well on his return and shaped as if needing it, on ground probably soft enough and without his declared tongue-tie. Gary Hanmer will get wins from him. Shan Blue also shaped as if needing it, but his mark will drop. He’s a 10YO now and is entitled to run in Vets chases, something he never tried, but he retains enough ability to win one of those well enough if desired. But his Ascot form at the back end of last season was decent.

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Thanks for reading and best of luck ,

Josh