Good Morning Friend

Taunton 'through the card'

I hope your week has started well. It was a cracking weekend in RTP 'Towers'. x5 tips in my 'target races' (C3+, 3m+ chases) with x3 winners - Fortescue 10/1, The Galloping Bear 5/1 and Nestor Park 4/1, with +21 points added to the pot. 2022 has been good to me so far, and long may it continue.

I also ran the regular tipping comp on Saturday, with Jame's B winning the £20 cash prize and the kudos of course. Some effort as well with x3 winners from x5 picks at 16/1, 6/4 and 9/4. I did enjoy reading his feedback, it makes it all worthwhile...

"Thanks again for running these comps, I think everyone enjoys them, and like so much that you do it's different from any other tipping service, feels much more like a racing club where we all enjoy the sport together. Good to have you in top form ahead of Cheltenham!"

It's the greatest of games.

Today I have a 'through the card' from Taunton for you. I'm always happy to take requests from members if they're off racing, time permitting. There were no target races for me to tip in properly today so I had no excuse not to have a flick through.

These efforts usually go ok, 2 or 3 winners (x4 winners once I think), with of course the occasional dreaded blank. In any case, you can find my musings below to flick through and use or ignore as you please! Prices correct as of 9am...

Taunton ‘through the card’

1.20 – Honestlyntruthfully 4/1 | Novus Aditus 12/1

1.55 – None

2.30 – Jeremy The Jinn – 11/8

3.05 – Esprit De Somoza – 9/2

3.40 – Ajero – 5/1

4.15 – Furkash – 11/1

4.50 – Lazy Sunday – 9/2

Notes…

1.20 – a race it’s rather hard to have much confidence on, and probably the least confident picks of the lot, for all they’ll now probably be 1-2 and my only winner on the card! Honestlyntrufully is unexposed, more to come, and ran well on handicap debut LTO, first run in a tongue tie. He moves up in trip here which looks sure to suit and gets a decent 10lb claimer on his back. He’s probably at least a 10lb ‘worse’ jockey than Tom O’Brien, but it may count for something come the death here, actual weight if nothing else. The Hobbs team are flying and do well around here. This is an awful race mind, and he is still a maiden, i’ve no idea if he has ‘the minerals’ for a battle, but 4s is just about ok.

Novus Aditus is a bit of a poke but Nigel Hawke does very well around here, as he does with Buckley on (4/13, 6p +13 last year here together) This is the horse’s third run back after a long lay off, down in class, and he now returns to the course where he ran a decent race in what would turn out to be a very deep juvenile hurdle in Dec 19 (3 starts back), 130+ horses in front of him, 11 subsequent winners. He’s unexposed in handicaps. It could be he’s regressed, or has issued, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw more here today, in a weak race. And he didn’t run too badly at Exeter, finished his race off.

Maybe the Scott jolly will follow up but I watched his last race back and he wasn’t for me at 7/2, i’m not sure he really wanted to go past the one in front and it was a heads up heads down job on the line. We shall see. He is unexposed and in form at least, that will count for plenty.

1.55 – If Lady Adare stands up/runs her race, she should win this, even under a double penalty, as it’s an awful race. If she does fluff her lines, Paddy may take advantage on Peerless Beauty and I suppose if trackside she’s worth £2 just to see, and pay for a couple of drinks if she somehow wins.

2.30 – Jeremy The Jinn – a shorty with ‘I’m at the races, I want winners eyes, sod long term value‘ – I can’t say 11/8 is overpriced and if I backed this type every day, at these odds, I have no confidence i’d come out in front over time. Far too hard at this end and enough of them would get beat. In any case, Jeremy ran a cracker in a bumper at Cheltenham in October and that’s working out well. He ran well here on hurdling debut, but the 75 days off since makes me wonder if he had a problem, or they’ve tried to avoid deep winter ground. There’s clearly more to come from him and he sets a decent standard on what he’s done to date, a simply repeat of LTO may be good enough, let alone improving.

Having now bought a horse from Ireland who was 10k all in and should give us a bit of fun (still 2 shares left… you’re more than welcome to ‘reinvest’ your weekend winnings HERE >>>) I do take more interest in who’s paid what for X. Connections of Aritocrate paid 140k when buying him from France. Sent off 6/4 on yard debut at Fontwell, he fell out the back of the TV, was swiftly gelded and now gets 1st blinkers also. Urgh. He will clearly show more at some point of course (and may be quite decent in time) and the op and the headgear may work wonders. He is only 5 of course, but still, that intrigued me. Big money is no guarantee of success in this game. The market may guide with him, he could well take this, but one to keep an eye on. Hard to know what to make of the Nicholls horse also. The rest don’t look up to much for all I had eyes on Scott’s Leissieres Express, who showed promise in two bumpers but has been far too keen. Hurdle debut here, one to keep an eye on also, yard red hot. But may need time.

3.05- I thought 9/2 was more than fair for Esprit De Somoza here on just his seventh chase. It appears to have clicked the last twice. He bolted up two starts back off 110, a 124 RPR, relishing a strong pace to aim at over 20f. He then ran well again at Wincanton, not as much pace, outpaced off the bend, but he stayed on well again. He now steps up another 3f and on that evidence it looks sure to suit and could be a reason for further improvement. He’s got a likeable profile and won a handicap hurdle around here off 128, so still room in this chase mark. Maybe he doesn’t want the ground too soft, and that’s why he’s this price, which I thought is big in this line up. Time will tell, but the yard are in form, the horse has course experience over timber, a smooth traveller and decent jumper from what I can see. His last two races are working out ok also.

This looks a mediocre bunch. I wasn’t sure on the fav’s stamina over this trip esp if a proper gallop. More of an unknown I suppose but I wasn’t convinced at 9/4 and was happy to oppose, for all he was staying on last time and up in trip here. The others have too many questions for me.

I pondered Millbank Flyer for a time, weak enough in the market. Simply because he’s unexposed over fences and takes an almighty rise in distance here. He didn’t run too badly when last seen at Chepstow, 16f, outpaced the whole way to my eyes/going a few strides faster than he may have preferred, he jumped well enough. He’s clearly been hard to train though, hard to know what to expect but maybe one for another trackside £2. He’s one to keep an eye on as at some stage he could make this mark look lenient over fences. He’s closely related to Chantry House.

3.40 – Ajero – what fascinated me in this race is that on paper there is no pace whatsoever. All the jockeys will know that, which could lead to a few trying to steal it from the front, and then it is actually a properly run race. But I wasn’t sure. I thought David B may decide to attempt to make all here, as he likes doing. This horse has the form to win this, this mark is fine, and he stays this trip well – another reason for why I hope David launches him. The yard are in decent form and trainer/jockey do well together around here, 4/14,7p +7. I’m expecting a big run in a so so race, hopefully making all.

4.15 – Furkash – the one I’m most excited about at the prices. Well, I concluded I couldn’t bear to see a Tizard/Powell unexposed chaser win around here at double digits, dropped into a weak Class 5. How annoying would that be. The yard are in fine form again and do well around here, and Brendan jumps back on. The horse has been dropped 5lb from last time and is down in class, for all that was a naff C4 LTO also. This horse showed promise in his early novice hurdles, decent form, before whatever afflicted the yard last season appeared to get hold of him also. He’s returned this season and shapes to me as if building to something. He was going ok on chase debut at Plumpton when an innocuous unseat down the back, maybe landing too steep, as he jumped fine. His jumping was fine at Exeter also – I think he may have gone too hard from the outset there. He was always up in the front three, Tom C at pains to keep at him, and he was ridden/sent for home a long way out. Another horse who was up there that day also fell out the back of the TV up the straight, the other one plugged on for 2nd, tired. Furkash also then backed out of it when hitting the rising ground. The winner that day was held up out the back, making me think they went too hard. He may have simply been going too hard too soon, out of his comfort zone gallop a long way out, and running out of puff. Maybe. That’s the theory. And he may take confidence from that completion after his tumble. I’m excited to see what he can do here, in a rubbish race, up in trip, down in class. He may be able to lob along more comfortably on the front end.

It’s dire stuff. If he is just useless, Queen Of The Court sets an ok standard, unexposed, in form, knows how to win a chase- you can’t say that for many in here. I thought this CD may be sharp enough though, down in trip. I didn’t really like much else here.

4.15 – Lazy Sunday – this one is unexposed and ran well on first start after a wind op 15 days back. It looked to have made a difference. That was a hands and heels race and his young jockey went for home a long way out. He kicked clear like a very well handicapped horse but just tied up late there, the jockey so desperate to use his stick, which may have helped. The winner stayed on well, front two miles clear, the 4th there bolted up on his next start. Man of the season Charlie D jumps back on, slightly up in trip again and maybe better ground. If building on that run he won’t be very far away here at all, especially if held onto for a bit longer.

I thought he may be fighting it out with Emma’s Flying Nun, who should run a cracker. She was 3s and Lazy was 5s ay 9am, she’s weak – but if she hits 9/2, 5s, I’d be tempted to have a go at her also I think. Maybe they’ll be battling it out. I really didn’t like the rest here but it’s a weak C5 handicap, anything can happen!

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Have a great day,

Josh