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Below you can find some musings on today's Newbury card, which looks ultra competitive.

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Newbury

‘Through the card’

1.30 – King Of Brazil – 14/1 EW

2.05 – pass

2.40 – Thibault – 18-20/1 EW

3.10 – Loup De Maulde – 11/2

3.40 – Sheldon – 11/1

4.10 – Way Out 33/1 | Ballycamus 8/1

4.45 – pass

Notes…

Doug is off racing and has requested a ‘through the card’ – rain softened ground and some bigger fields make for competitive action and I can’t say I’m bouncing into this with too much confidence but with any luck something above runs well…

King Of Brazil – a chance he’s not good enough under a penalty but I liked how he won LTO with any amount of improvement to come – he looks a bit green still also but has plenty of enthusiasm for the task. He’ll have no problem with the ground, should relish this step up in trip and I thought could well outrun these odds. The top 2 look strong, especially Hendo’s, but I wouldn’t want to be playing at those prices. Noollyador is worth keeping an eye on, first start after a wind op – he had some decent bumper form but hasn’t done much over hurdles as yet. You’d think they’d be running for a mark here, but hopefully the op has worked wonders, if not today, worth watching when handicapping as he may get in with a workable mark.

Thibault – this 10YO isn’t quite the oldest horse in the race but I thought a chance he could outrun his odds here. He’s back on his last winning mark, when doing so easily around Plumpton last season. He didn’t run too badly at Ascot, not far off them 2 out before that stiff finish may have found him out. A chance he enjoys a return to softer also, just to slow everything down, and he takes a drop in class also, from what was a deep enough race. Adam West and Lee Edwards are 9/38, 12p, +30 together in the last year, so here’s hoping. They may all be chasing home the Fav who’s been well backed in the last hour or so, having been 3s. Olly Murphy can do little wrong at the moment, the yard on fire, and he may enjoy this flatter finish. He did run well at Sandown and looked the winner jumping the last before being swamped. Still, I wouldn’t want to dive in at 7/4. I couldn’t really be lured in by much else in here.

Loup De Maulde – if this lad runs flat then the race has just come too soon, 12 days on from Warwick where he travelled/jumped really well, cruised around and did it easily enough. I put him up in my Ascot ‘TTC’ two starts back when a very good second to a good horse of Pipes, front two miles clear. He just looks in form, progressive, stays further, will relish the ground and it’s hard to know when his improvement will stop. He’s very consistent also, which could count for plenty today. I thought 11/2-6/1 looked generous enough, IF in the same form as the last twice. Again, another strong Fav and the Nicholls charge may well improve bundles for this step up in trip, but he still has it to prove in testing ground, for a young horse. He has a likeable profile though. The others are so so.

Doug is actually a guest of one of Phantom Getaway’s owners, who runs here. He’s a chaser in the making, a proper ‘anything he does over hurdles is a bonus’ sort – connections do expect a big run. I found his form hard to get a grip on and a chance he doesn’t have the pace late on here, but I could be wrong. If this turns into a slog he will just keep galloping and hacked up at Ffos Las in similar conditions, for all he wasn’t beating much as its turned out. The yard look to be firing again having had a quiet spell and 14s may well be getting on the big side.

Sheldon – hmm, I found this race a bit of a headache in truth, all of them with something to prove, but my pin landed on the Seamus Mullins charge. He is still unexposed as a handicap chaser and hope rests on a return to softer ground bringing out more. Three starts back on Exeter Heavy he hacked up and if he got back to that sort of form, may outrun his odds here. He’s placed twice around here over hurdles and while he needs to prove he’s not just a C4 horse, there is still some upside potential. Huntingdon appeared to happen too quickly for him, although it may have come too soon after Exeter. His Plumpton effort was ok, again happening too quickly in the last 5f or so, the track/ground combo possibly not ideal, but he stayed on well enough and that race was won by a solid horse. He could appreciate this further step up in trip and a more galloping track. In general the form of his races has a solid look to it and I thought he was overpriced here. Whatever he does, based on that Exeter win there’s more to come, and he’s one for the notebook, including into next season if/when he next rocks up in Devon.

Five Star Getaway looks solid and may appreciate this return to further, from a falling mark. The odd question over him now but they did all bump into one LTO and this may not take much winning. He will relish the ground. Still, not enough there for me to dive in at 5/2 but no shock winner. Precious E has stamina to prove in soft+ ground – she may do, but again, looked around the right price. The others have enough questions – Yes Indeed – is interesting, he cruised around here in soft last season, looking like the winner, only to be outstayed/battled by Nestor Park. That was a solid run and he’s much lower in the weights now – in part because the wheels have come off. He had a wind op before last start, and he returned on ground too quick for him. A chance he takes a step forward on softer ground now, but still enough questions and I’d want to see a shade more before trusting him again. He could well pop up though.

Way Out – hmm, this looks very open and it was causing me another headache. This one may be nowhere near good enough but he ran well enough LTO, keeping on. He’s a former point winner and could well enjoy this step up to 3m. He looks the sort who may just keep galloping. Maybe he can grab a place, or it’s all about chasing next season with him. I wasn’t quite sure why he was so big but may well soon find out.

Ballycamus – well at least he arrives in form after his run around here LTO, which suggested a step up in trip was worth a go. His only win to date came in soft and these conditions may eek out a bit more also. I’ve no idea what happened two starts ago but clearly had an off day there. He may well have needed his return run before that, maybe he then bounced or something. He has upsides potential and 8s looked a shade big also.

However, it’s an open race, the three above him in the market all arrive in form, two of them with upsides potential also, the Pipe horse is just hardy, which could be what you need come this race.

Anyway, do with those notes as you please!

GL if having a dabble,

Josh

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