Good Afternoon, Friend
Thankfully I managed to mention a winner last time I emailed out, Gallic Geordie drifting from a morning 11/4 to a much more respectable 11/2, before dotting up. That was one for the 'form eyes', his most recent level of opposition a bit deeper than what he faced there and with a ready excuse for his last start (ground too quick). The other two I flagged didn't run very well at all!
Shandancer ran so-so at Plumpton - rather annoying he got very agitated pre race, stabled next to the course he appeared to hate seeing horses rattle past him and the general noise, sweating out, having to be washed down and pulling his head everywhere pre race. You don't want to be wasting energy on your first start over a trip. That was the best he's travelled I thought, maybe too well, but there was little there when asked turning in, at what was around the 2m7f. That is twice now he's failed to fire when asked for an effort, merely staying on - unlike Huntingdon, where he powered through the line. It could be there's something else up with him, but we shall see. Still, another ÂŁ1k prize money into the pot, he came home in one piece, and our wait goes on for the stars to align, which they will do at some point.
I flagged a Henry Daly micro stat on the blog that may interest some of you, and could be worth noting, possibly for this afternoon, but moving forwards...
Henry Daly… with horses having their second start in a handicap, he’s 6/15,8p , +40 SP in the last 2 years – suggesting a few step forward for their initial experience and also some backing up a handicap debut win no doubt/well handicapped. Both his hurdlers today tick that box…
3.45 Chep- Rockingastorm – 9/1-10/1
5.20 Lud – Duke of Moravia – 7/2
I’ll leave you to have a closer look, but he’s booked Sam T-D and Harry C respectively. The former is worth keeping an eye on more generally as his bumper form was good, inc a 4th around Chepstow under a penalty. His Bangor effort this season was ok. I don’t know what happened at Hunt when well fancied – a chance he’s better left-handed, and a chance he needs it soft to be at his best. Some of his form reads ok, especially now dropping into a C5 for the first time. It could be he’s a bit immature still. If he runs like LTO he won’t be anywhere, if he bounces back he could be in the top 4.
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Horses to follow...
I've just posted Adam's latest set of paddock side notes, and thought i'd repeat his Newcastle musings from 18th March, to do with as you please...
Newcastle (March 18)
Proper soft ground for once but that didn’t stop Dare To Shout, who looks another smart recruit for the Hamiltons despite not being the most appealing on looks at present… a grey with plenty of room to grow and strengthen. He certainly has an engine, travelling all over a decent chasing prospect in Chapel Green, who is definitely one to keep on side when he goes over fences. By contrast, main market rival Sleeping Satellite made no appeal, being unfurnished and leggy, far too weak to handle this type of ground. He may do better when strengthening up but it’s likely he’ll remain only modest.
A mediocre handicap chase with a 110-limit gave Road Warrior a chance to regain his old form having been given every chance by the assessor, and he duly made all the running having been left alone on the lead. This seems to be the only place he likes beyond Sedgefield but when he’s on form he isn’t bad at this level and after a fairly light campaign he could go in again. Onesoc didn’t appear to stay having been held up – they came home really tired in behind with the well backed Gold Emery looking pretty ungainly before and during the race. He really doesn’t appeal as he’s basically a big lump who will win the odd race up to a mark of around 120, probably on this sort of ground.
Stainsby Girl was given a carbon copy ride by his handler to win again, just holding on from the in-form Thereisnodoubt. This looked to come soon enough for the likeable mare as she tends to give her all, but they just can’t go with her raw speed and she went and defied another high mark. They took an age to get going and it’s likely that the rest just weren’t in great form… Albert’s Back has looked better in the past and may just be on the downgrade, while War Soldier’s form just wasn’t strong enough to justify heavy support. Lebowski has had a poor season but looks a decent chasing type for next season when hopefully the Scudamore team is firing on all cylinders.
While it’s not likely to be strong form, Band Of Outlaws is another worthy of keeping an eye on as he slips down the ratings. He has that bit of quality to suggest he can win again if the wheels stay on.
The 3m handicap chase was a bit of a slugfest which suited Cash To Ash who hasn’t really had conditions this season, but he clearly relished this as he stormed away like never before. There was nothing wrong with the effort of Burrows Diamond in second, who simply bumped into a better rated rival with the pair pulling clear and she saw it out well on ground plenty soft enough for her.
Geryville just plods on at the same pace, while Small Present just isn’t a chaser to my eye and I’d be much happier to see him back over hurdles. The trouble is he’s a thorough stayer that needs better ground than this, so options are limited. But he can pop up when these parameters are met.
A low grade chase fell to market drifter Maid Of Houxty, who was a deserved winner with her previous form working out well. Le Grand Vert attracted support and he duly put in his strongest shift yet, despite looking disinterested beforehand lacking any sort of size and scope for fences. He’ll remain vulnerable on these shores unless the ground is like this.
It wasn’t a great 0-100 novices handicap hurdle that Fabuleux De Clos won but he had some fair form behind decent novices and it looked like a plan had come together, the horse being well bet and coming through late with a well timed challenge in a first time tongue tie. He came into the paddock late and was the pick of them, so might be able to win again although he’s already eight and clearly not easy to train.
The other one to take from the race is Eloi Du Puy, who still takes a fair tug but is learning on the job and physically just looks a baby. I’d be interested to see how he fairs over the summer with an eye to making a chunk of improvement from a mark that may turn out to be very workable.
The bumper was all about whether Lunar Chief would look the part on his debut, coming from a respected trainer in this sphere and a horse whose dam had won here on her debut. It turned out that he looked a pretty decent type, albeit very green on his first visit to the track. But I liked him a lot and you could only see that inexperience when Sean gave him a few smacks in the closing stages. He pulled clear with March Wind, who hasn’t done much wrong for a second time and appears to have her share of ability. She can strengthen up a good deal over time and win races. It wasn’t the weakest bumper by any means and even the rags had enough about them to be picking up a handicap or two.
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All the best,
Josh
