Good Evening, Friend
Saturday's Big Race Trends & Trainers
No luck from Sam's tip earlier today, punted from 14s>10s>9/2 and running a so-so race, not really picking up, for all not totally disgracing himself. Plenty of burnt fingers there.
Onto Saturday, and first up you can find my trends & trainer pointers and shortlists for two of the big handicaps, and some trainer pointers for the other. At the bottom of the email you can find my own musings, but with any what follows may helps us all land on a winner or two...
2.10 Kempton
Trends pointers…
Historically this race has been dominated by 4 and 5 year olds, (13/14), horses making their race debut and with at least 2 wins previously in career. That would have found 13 of last 14 winners (2007 the exception) and IF upholding this year, would point to five…
Baltimore Boy, Rhythm N Rock, Golden Sands, Imperial Sands, Fantastic Fox
Plenty of bigger priced horses have won this. Those near the top of the weights have done well also, 10/14 won by horses top 6 in weights. Two above tick that box…
Rhythm N Rock, Imperial Sands
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
Kathab
First View
Golden Sands
Bear Force One
2.35 – Ascot
Trends Pointers…
Looking at a profile of… had not run G1/2 in career, had not won above C2, max distance career run between 7f-8f, 6-12 runs in last year, 5+ runs in handicaps, and 1+ handicap win, as well as running in a handicap LTO and a race for 3YO+, would have found 12/12 winners (12/65 runners, 24p, +108 BFSP) and IF upholding would point to six…
Love De Vega, Hickory, Star of Orion, Havana Blue, Mobashr, Top Secret
11/12 had run over 8f+ at least once in their career, and four of the above tick that box…
Star of Orion, Havana Blue, Mobashr, Top Secret
11/12 had run over the CD prev in career, and of the original six above, only Havana Blue is making his CD debut, but that may not stop him of course.
11/12 also had 1-2 wins this season, and four hit that marker…
Love De Vega, Star of Orion, Havana Blue, Mobashr
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
Hickory
Havana Blue
Top Secret
3.00 – Haydock
I can’t find any trends pointers of use for this, so just the trainers…
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
Euchen Glen
Dark island
Haliphon, Enemy
La Pulga
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My Musings...
2.10 Kempton - Rhythm N Rock - 12/1
2.35 Ascot - Hickory - 6/1
Kempton - Rhythm N Rock looks a bit overpriced here to my eyes, and we'll see what the market does as the race approaches. He ticks my trends and looks worth an interest dabble. I think he looks progressive and will have no problem with conditions. Last start here he was drawn wide and they dropped him in, in a race not run overly fast to my eyes. He picked up really well from the back, challenging out wide, but using plenty of gas to get there as he waltzed passed the whole field bar one, the horse who'd dictated from 4f out. His jockey had kept a bit up his sleeve and has much less weight, but it was still a big run, to make up that much ground off a slow-ish pace. It was a career best RPR.
He's been kept back for this, which could be key - whatever he does here, it's worth noting that he's 2/6,4p in his life from breaks of 60+ days. This is only the 10th run of his life and he's only had x3 runs off shorter breaks, so there could not be much in it, but evidently running after a break is no problem. I'd like to think he'll be tuned up and ready to go here.
He's unexposed and with some good form in the book, his Yarmouth effort at the back end of last season reads particularly well. Course form on this standard/slow surface could count for plenty and he's drawn in 4 here, so hopefully can get a bit handier. On paper there should be more pace also and I'd expect a couple drawn wider to be aggressive from the gate. If he runs his race and built on his last start, I'd like to think he'd be thereabouts.
Ascot - Hickory just about looks ok at 6/1 and really should be bang there with all the usual caveats (running his race, luck in running etc etc). I thought his run here last time was impressive - he was in a 1st Visor there which appeared to light him up plenty, maybe too much, and Saffie was keen to settle him out the back cold. She switched him off but then had to challenge from last on the nearside. He tanked into it and picked up really well, closing all the way to the line, hitting it hard. The make-all leader was able to do his own thing and had a much easier time of it. Hickory was running just 7 days later there and I'd hope this has been the plan, freshened up, by a trainer who knows what's required to win this. I think that's decent form and if he repeated that run, or built on it as he's entitled to do given his profile, he just has to be be bang there.
The stalls are stand-side here so he's up against this rail, and I hope Saffie tries to get him a bit handier, as the fear is if they all stay this side, and not spread out, she could get stuck behind a wall, and it could be agony. He's raced handier before and should be used to the visor now. There looks to be a fair bit of potential pace on paper here but I'm not sure you'll want to be too far back. That's the only niggle but I'll have to trust in Saffie - she is 10/55, 17p +30 EW SP all rides here in the last 2 years, which is no mean feat given how competitive the racing usually is. She knows the horse, he ticks most of my trends, and I hope can have me on the edge of my seat as they enter the final furlong. There's certainly much more to come from this horse when it all falls right.
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As always, do with those thoughts as you please, but I'm not going to write anything to put you off any of the others in those races, so no fear if you disagree with me or if something else from those trends & trainers lists stands out to your eyes. Of course, the winners may not even be listed above, which usually is never much good for me, but it's a long term game, and they've been doing well enough in recent weeks, so fingers crossed.
Enjoy your weekend and best of luck with any Saturday punts,
All the best,
Josh
