Good Morning, Friend,
Before I touch on yesterday, you can read Sam Darby's 'Free Tips Friday' column HERE >>>
He had a winner for us in last week's column so fingers crossed for today...
In summary, Sam's Final Verdict... 2.35 Haydock...
Final Verdict
No real surprise here but the selection in this race is MATTICE. I would have been more confident had this race come a few starts ago as he’d be going into this in better form but if that was the case he’d be 5lbs higher and half the price. Given both of his recent poor results can be fairly easily explained I’m relatively happy to be backing him off this mark, especially at the very early 10/1. I’d be delighted to see that reflected elsewhere when all the big bookies price up.
Assuming that sort of price is available when it comes to being able to get a bet on, I’m slightly conflicted about whether or not to back each way. For many, an each way bet is price dependent only. For me it’s much more about how likely they are to give their running and two poor runs in a row do give some doubt about his reliability. With that in mind I’ll probably have more on the win than the place, roughly twice as much to win than to place, so that the place bet covers my win stake should he only reach the frame
Soul Seeker looks incredibly solid and I can see him running well whilst Level Up looks likely to go well too, even if this is a step up in class for that runner. I make that pair the main dangers in this.
I’ll also be keeping an eye on how Bayraat runs, with a view to probably backing him back over 6f next time out.
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Looking back at yesterday...
Well the only 'positive' was that I beat the SP comfortably with both picks, which as we all know is the key to long term success. You obviously need a few winners over time, but 75-85% lose so we have to get used to that feeling. But I do hate losers, especially when never competitive.
The Southwell market was very odd and it appeared as though no-one had a clue, including connections! The winner drifted from 9/4 > 10/3 SP, and given how he won, I hope connections knew what they had and didn't leave any money behind. Fair play to the Pogson's, shrewd business, buying him rated 106 out of Nicky Henderson's for £18k, they were obviously convinced he needed 3m+, and they were right. Evidently horses can be improved out of that yard! Swapped relished the distance and that slower tempo, jumping like a stag and bolting up. They should have some fun with him if he can keep in that form. Maybe he's enjoyed going to a smaller yard and no doubt getting a lot more fuss and attention.
It remains to be seen what the form is worth and I'm not sure much ran their race, but maybe he just took them out of their comfort zone on that ground. Ecossais was backed late into 9/2 but got outpaced but did run on, for all well stuffed. I can't think that was his true running but that's twice i've backed him to lose and evidently can't get him right! He's down to run in the 2.50 Stratford tomorrow so will see if he takes up that engagement.
Jonjo's was smashed into favourite and didn't run much of a race. Fairlawn Flyer's saddle slipped, hence the PU, so worth remembering for next time, for all I don't think he'd have copped with the winner on that ground. He will win again when returned to soft. And does like Ffos Las also.
To Salisbury... and taking on the 3YOs did prove an error, silly boy. Pledge of Honour was backed from 9s > 11/2, and ran no sort of race, for all Rab held him up last and he could never get into it. Maybe he didn't like the CP, or needs to be placed better. At least his mark will drop again, but with his running style (for all I didn't expect him to be that far back) he will always need a pace to aim at and some luck.
Of the 3YOs, well it could turn into a 'race to follow', we shall see. The one to take forward for me is Alice Knyvet , for all she probably entered most notebooks! She was badly outpaced early up the straight but to her credit stuck her head down and kept trying, and somewhat 'flew' in the final 1/2 furlong, staying on powerfully to the line and still looking a bit green. I think there's much much more to come, and maybe when sent over even further in time, to 12-14f.
Her dam is Battlement, who's a half sister to St Leger winner Logician, 14f US G3 winner Suffused, and smart 2m winner Collide. Battlement was a bit speedier herself, as was her sire Acclamation of course (6f speedster) but maybe that stamina from dam's siblings has been passed onto Alice. It certainly looked that way at Salisbury, but as always, time will tell. One to keep an eye on as she will win more races, and hopefully isn't an unbackable price when she does.
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That's all for the first part of Friday. I need to dive into HRB and see if any Saturday trends races/trends of note for a couple of the handicaps, but I plan to have a 'big race preview' of sorts. There are three 14/15 runner handicaps to have a look at.
I may well email out again this evening at some point, we shall see, as moving forward i'd like to get any Saturday musings boxed off by Friday evening, to give you time to cogitate and decide if I'm talking nonsense :)
All the best,
Josh
