Good Morning, Friend,
I've a few musings after yesterday's 'stats pointers' starting points, which may be useful moving forwards as I think the odd horse could be worth tracking. They highlighted one 6/1>10/3 winner for the red-hot Ed Bethell team, an odds on shot and that was about it, for all the odd other one ran well.
Before that, I've dived into the 26f chase at Southwell, and also flagged a few other pointers of interest. I thought it may be good to sharpen up the 3m+ chase eyes, and we'll see how the below works out...
2.18 South - Ecossais - 13/2
That's where my money is going, looking a shade overpriced to these eyes at morning odds. In fact I can't work out why he's not 7/2, 4s or so, but as always, I'll find out soon enough!
He comes here on the back of a win at Perth, his first start after a wind op, which I'm hoping has done the job, as he ran ok last season but without threatening. That does of course mean his mark had dropped. 3m around Perth may be speedy enough for him and it was to his credit he kept going and got up late - yes the 2nd probably idled and threw it away, but he was arriving on the back of a win and it looks ok form for the grade. He's up in class here but that's no bother, C4s hold no fears for him and having won off 105 and 109 before, (115/116 RPRs) today's mark of 104 won't be the excuse for defeat, and with Toby Wyne's 5lb claim, who's getting better all the time. The horse looks a rhythm horse where he has to be happy early on, where he can lob away and jump in his comfort zone. Hopefully that's the case today, stepped back up in trip and returned to his favourite course, where he's 3/6,4p over fences, 1/1 over the CD. Before Perth he hadn't run anywhere else so it's a positive he returns here. The faster ground should hold no fears. Maybe he's regressed and he'll find less exposed legs too much, but I think he sets a solid bar at his best around here, and his price just looked too big.
Some stats... so at least I say something useful if he falls out the back of the tv... my 'way in' was actually the form of trainer/jockey... 3/9,4p +44Sp in the last 30 days, two of those winners recently.
The Greenhall/Guerriero trainer combo is worth keeping an eye on this winter as they know the time of day. They have a 30% SR with LTO winners which is good for Ecossais, who has won back to back chases in the past. The team are also nearly 20% SR with all their chasers, which is worth noting also, solid. They are 6/28,14p +40 with all their Southwell raiders in the last year.
Of the rest... Swapped has stamina to prove on first go for his new trainer having been bought out of Nicky Henderson's, the horses first go beyond 2m5f. He won well here when last seen and has shaped like a stayer but i'd be more fearful if still with Nicky and Nico riding, but if in the same form, he should go well until they leave the back, and then we'll see if he powers home or paddles. His new jockey, P Armson, is 0/47 all rides here to date. Fairlawn Flyer hasn't won or placed over fences on going with 'Good' in it, his profile suggesting he needs it soft. I'm hoping he gets outpaced turning in here but if he doesn't, he's a danger arriving on the back of a win and having won off higher marks.
There's Biowavego for Jonjo, a 'qualifier' for my new micro but 7/2 is too short for me, and if he beats me, so be it. He's won on soft so I'm not sure that's the excuse for his last run but he's up in trip, gets CP and returns to faster ground - maybe it's what he wants, but at his price point I could leave him. He's unexposed though, his 3rd chase, with some ok hurdles form. But Eco shouldn't be nearly twice the price in my view. No shock winner but I didn't want to dive in.
The rest look up against it but do note that Dindin only ever appears to win when his mark is 100 or below (0/16,3p above), 102 here, and maybe one to watch when it drops again, for all given his age/profile, would need to be well placed.
*
Elsewhere... 'a horse of interest'... and I haven't gone into this race in as much depth as the chase above but...
17.15 Salisbury - Pledge of Honour - 9/1
Is he worth a small EW bet for beer money? Maybe (well, I have). He's up against a few too many 3YOs for comfort but the booking of Rab Havlin caught the eye, especially as him and Dean Ivory are 3/8,5p +5 SP when teaming up in the last 30 days and he's never ridden the horse. Rab has been a bit of a go-to for Dean in recent years, a 26% SR together more generally. His profile suggests he wants a road, which he gets here, and is dropped 2 classes from a C2 LTO, a hot Racing League contest, but he had to challenge wide there. Softer ground could be the excuse for his efforts before that, but ran well at York on GF also. He gets 1st CP here as well, which may help. He looks sure to relish the ground and stay the trip, which is a question for a few in here, for all a lot of unexposed types. He's won from this mark - i live in hope his very best would see him in the 3 here, and if younger legs have him, so be it. He's interesting at the price though.
*
A quick look back on yesterday, the initial list of stats horses producing one winner and with any luck someone out there may have landed on it, while avoiding some of the losers!
Ahead of The Field ran well for Jon McConnel at Hexham, front two clear, beaten by an in-form progressive horse who dictated. The former ran well, jumped well, but was sticky at a couple as they got racing, which may well have cost him in the end, I'm not sure. All he did was gallop and may be worth a go over further again. Evidently he's got his level and likes decent ground, but he showed enough there to suggest a weak marathon handicap chase could come his way and worth adding to the tracker.
When I eventually got round to having a look at the horses I did note that Luna Queen was 0/18,3p on marks of 61+ which was off-putting for yesterday, and she was held up and never really put in the race. She's 3/5 in handicaps off marks of 60 or lower, so track her, and wait for that mark to drop. I suspect her trainer deliberately gets her back down to 60< before she reappears back in fine form. I could be wrong, but it looks that way. Her last two wins have come after 50+ day breaks also, and maybe she's best fresh - when on the right mark. She has a winning attitude which is worth plenty at that level and will pop up at some point.
From that list those are the two I'd take forward for now, for all Haggas' Persian Blue ran ok on debut, travelled well but outpaced off the bend over 5f, I suspect may come on bundles for it and could be interesting stepped up in trip, and it was a hot little race. No money for him, stayed static at 8s, so doesn't look like more was expected and the trainer doesn't have masses of 1st time out winning 2YOs.
*
That's the lot for today, hopefully an interesting read and something of use above, for today and moving forwards. As always, good luck with any bets, and ignore any typos, I haven't had time to proof read this time!
All the best,
Josh
