Good Morning, Friend
Newcastle 'Through The Card' (below)
I hope you had a decent bank holiday weekend. I won't dwell on The Ebor for too long, Yashin just run out of the places, and Cemhaan running no sort of race. It was 'Absurde' I wasn't closer to the winner at 8s/9s, given he was a SH in-front of Cemhaan in that Ascot race, Willie Mullins, Frankie's last York ride, on the trends long list. Sigh. I've over thought draw/ ground / prev running style, at what was a nice price. Frankie remains a genius when he wants to be.
I spent Monday at Sandringham for a gig, Lightning Seeds, Richard Ashcroft, The WHO. A decent day, but I was without any phone signal, which I suppose was bliss in some ways. However I wasn't able to watch our Sir Canford get stuck in the mud at Cartmel. We thought softer ground would be ok, but it was drying out, tacky/sticky and Sam Twiston said he hated every minute of it and never really travelled, and struggled to jump out of it also. Maybe it was the track also, I'm not sure. In any case, a line through that run, hopefully he bounces back next time.
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Newcastle 'through the card'
5.45 - Wynter Wildes - 9/2 | Muzaffar - 7/1
6.15 - Dan Dee Prince - 7/1
6.45 - Craven - 12/1 | Billy Mill 4/1
7.15 - Snash - 13/2
7.45 - Roaring Gallagher - 7/1 | Painters Palette 17/2
8.15 - Tosen Wish - 11/2
8.45 - Badri 10/1 | Batal Dubai 6/1
One of you poor sods, who's been reading my blog for far too long and is now a member in a few of our Syndicates, is off racing this evening and asked for some musings! I'll do my best, with all the usual caveats of not often diving into the AW, and of course it being The Racing League, every race is ultra competitive. Still, I have spent a few hours staring at the card and hopefully I say something of use below, whether for today or to note moving forwards...
5.45 -
Wynter Wildes - Charlie F is in form and does well in Newcastle handicaps, 15/63, 24p, +24 SP, 4/12,6p +28 over this distance and 9/18,11p, +18 when in C4. Callum Shepherd is riding well also, 10/45, 11p, +46 in the last 14 days and I hope he keeps his eye in, as he's riding our Dancing Eyes at Wolves tomorrow evening. The filly is 2/4,3p at Newcastle, 2/3p over the CD and I thought sure to run a big race, tracking the pace. She'll appreciate this return to a stiff 12f on the AW and should be going close.
Muzaffar - a bit more of a poke and he was 8s, Richard Fahey/Oisin Orr are 6/24,12p, +17 SP together in the last 14 days, and I'm hoping they keep up their form this evening. The horse is 1/6 on the AW, 0/4,0p on turf, and I'm hoping a return to the sand inspires him. He went close here in March off 6lb higher where I think a stronger pace would have been ideal, which he could get here. He's well handicapped, just a case of when he pops up again, but his record suggests it's likely to be on the AW somewhere. Hopefully tonight!
6.15 - Dan Dee Prince 7/1
I was going with I'm Puzzled here, at 7/2, but that's vanished to 2s and maybe best sitting out now. Harry & Roger C are in fine form, 4/14,6p, +31 in the last 14 days and that's worth noting more generally. They're 4/18, 7p at the course, 2/2 with 2YOs inc a nursery handicap. They're 15/53, 18p, +33 SP with all handicap debutants in the last 2 years - again, a stat to absorb. Saffie is riding well, comes alive for The Racing League and indeed around here, 5/14,8p +76 SP here in the last year. I'm Puzzled has some ok form in novices, eye-catching LTO, and I suspect will decimate this mark at some point maybe today. However, it is his first run on the AW, and I can watch him having missed the price.
If track-side i'd now have beer money on the Tom Dascombe horse, who relished his first run over 7f when winning 8 days ago, and he did it fairly well. This is a step up of course but he races prominently also and maybe Hayley can steal this from the front. My hunch is I'm Puzzled and a few others could have more class, but 7s doesn't look a shade insulting. At least he's proven he knows how to win, and he looks straightforward.
Classy Clarets could go well for Fahey/Orr also, but 4s looked about right, but brings CD experience to the table after LTO where he ran well, and he's entitled to take another step forward. It's a nursery handicap after all, usually near the impossible end of the puzzle solving scale.
6.45 -
Craven - another for Fahey/Orr, I thought worth chancing at 12s, making AW debut. Havana Gold's generally do fine on the sand, and here, but you don't know until you try. His turf form has been decent. I don't know what happened at Beverley, but his York run before that was massive, 16 runner race, front two clear, beaten by Bajan Bandit who then went close at the Ebor meeting. Last time at Thirsk, again front two well clear, he bumped into a LTO winner who's since won again. It's strong form and he will leave 78 behind at some stage, maybe here, maybe not. One for the trackers given those big efforts and the 'hot form', but hopefully relished this CD and bolts up!
Billy Mill - looked much more interesting at 6s, now 4s, and no surprise being backed. Arrives in form, won a Racing League CD handicap here last season, is well handicapped again and should run a big race under Saffie. He is open to attack from more lightly raced legs but sets a solid standard at his best.
The fav has been well backed and does shape as if well handicapped, first run at the course however, but 2/3 on the AW at Kempton,
7.15 -
Snash - he was 9s first thing this morning and has been nibbled at but hopefully may drift back out. A bit of a poke that may amount to little but he should decimate this mark of 73 at some stage, esp having won last summer off 82 then 87. He's 2/2 on the AW, inc over the CD, and it's his run on the sand this year, which is interesting. Maybe it will inspire a step forward, however he ran well when last seen at Ripon, as if in form, and could appreciate this stiffer 6f. The CP go back on and he can race prominently - there's no pace in this race, so it is there to be stolen by a switched on jockey who has their mount in the right place and kicks at the right time.
I did look at Streak Lightening, 18/1, 3/12,6p at the course - they usually hold him up, which put me off, as I'm not sure they'll go that quick here. Maybe they'll change tactics, as if he ran to his best, kept in touch and had some luck in running, he would make 18s look big, but given that course record is one to note, as he'll pop up again here at some point - but I think he needs a strong pace, given his usual running style.
7.45 -
Painters Palette - 17/2 looked big I thought given the way he won last time out, looking progressive and if he was getting the hang of things. He won over nearly 10f at Wolves earlier in the year and I thought a return to this sort of trip could help him take another step forward, as he looks like he wants further than 8f. It is his course debut, but I did think he looked overpriced, another for the in-form Oisin Orr (yes, I know what happens now, but still)
Roaring Gallagher - a son of Roaring Lion, who's offspring appear to do well on the sand. This Irish Raider looks interesting enough. He was gelded before his last run, which he may have needed, but received a patient ride, didn't get much luck in running but finished strong enough down the outside. A winner as a 2YO, I thought he was interesting now sent over here for this, on the sand, a stiff 10f. I'd like to think he'll be trying and there could be some room in this mark. The form of his last race is working out also, only two have run since, but they've both won, the 2nd and 4th, this lad a running on 6th. Maybe he'll hate the surface, but again, given his 2YO form and that run LTO, one to note.
8.15 - Tosen Wish -
Another for Team Ireland in a head-scratcher of a race, as they all are. No doubt Fahey/Orr will win this one without carrying my money! I thought a chance Tosen could be better handicapped than most of these, a winner at Dundalk in Feb when doing it a shade cosily, his first run on the AW since, having run ok on turf, but only that. His run at Galway was eye-catching to a point, drawn in 17, had to be dropped in, no chance really around there but he made some smooth headway up the rail, and was travelling well with a wall of horses in front, the jockey stopped riding really with the race almost over, no chance. That was his first run after a gelding op, and he gets 1st CP here also. The yard are in ok form and I was intrigued to see what he did here returned to the AW. Plenty of the others have arguably shown their hand, but I'm not sure he has as yet.
8.45 -
Badri- well annoyingly this one was 16/1 at 7am, and it appears I'm not the only one who thought that was just the wrong price. Maybe he'll drift back out from 9s here, but we can ignore his run at Goodwood in the slop, but his efforts before that were so good, and some of, if not the, best recent sprint handicapping form on show here. He's switched yards, which may or may not eek out even more, but I thought just looked big. There could be a fair bit of pace on here and if returning to his best, is sure to run a big race. He's a CD winner and no concerns there, and a mark of 100 could still be workable.
Batal Dubai -an unexposed 3YO for the in-form Charlton team, this horse winning over the course two starts back. He's now 2/2 here, can he make it 3/3? He looks well handicapped but does drop back to 5f here, albeit stiff, and in a race where they should go hard. His record to date suggests he may be better on the AW, but if Ascot a true reflection of his form then he won't be winning. Hopefully he can keep in touch and they do too much upfront, as he should be staying on late.
Fingers crossed for some cheer there! I now have a headache, but we shouldn't complain at ultra-competitive racing.
As always, GL with any bets,
All the best,
Josh
