Good Morning, Friend

Royal Ascot Day 4

First up, Sam Darby's Free Tips Friday Preview is HERE >>>

Another good day yesterday with a 12/1 winner of the 17.05 where for the first time ever I landed on the 1-2 in a Royal Ascot handicap from three pokes. I followed up with a 28/1 2nd in the last who stuffed the rest but bumped into a future C1 horse, alas. Those two races followed a blow out in the first race but yet again my trends narrowed in on the winner, I just failed to land on him! So far I've attacked x5 RA handicaps with two winners at 24.00 and 12s-14s, I'll take it. :)

Before I get on to today, Saturday's stats quals and trends workings are up. I'm off racing at Ascot tomorrow and may not have time to email out etc, so swing back past the blog after 10am. Those in the Telegram group kept up to date in real time...

Read that HERE >>>

Friday’s pokes… four from me today, hopefully another winner below as with yesterday, 24.00 and 12s winners so far this week from the five handicaps I’ve attacked, I even manage a 1-2 yesterday and a 28/1 2nd in the last race for EW players.

4.25 - Duke of Edinburgh

Shadow Dance 7/1

Sheer Rocks – 40.00

17/05 - Sandringham

These horses have been well backed since posting them yesterday afternoon on the blog and in the free Telegram group... hopefully it's a good sign!

Arisaig – 25/1 – EW

Soprano – 25/1 – EW

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STATS & TRENDS

Trainer/Jockey Combo ‘Qualifiers’

2.30 – Fairy Godmother (AOB/RM 10/1<)

2.30 – Twafeeg (AW/HD)

3.45 – Devoted Queen (CA/WB)

3.45 – Opera Singer (AOB/RM, 10/1<)

5.40 – Royal Supremacy (11/1<)

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Jamie Spencer Straight Course

2.30 – Simmering

5.05 – Arisaig

6.15 – Mon Na Slieve

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TRENDS…

16.25 – Duke of Edinburgh

The 16/16 stats, ignoring position in the weights for the moment, would leave us a long-list of ten to get stuck into, IF upholding as always…

Shadow Dance, Sea King, Fairbanks, Vaguely Royal, Bague DOr, Struth, Party Central, Sheer Rocks, Marhaba The Champ, Cumulonimbus

All bar Cumulonimbus hit my weight trends also.

Applying the three 15/16 stats would leave 15/16 winners (15/68 runners, 26p, +101 BFSP) and IF upholding would leave us looking a five…

Shadow Dance, Sea King, Fairbanks, Vaguely Royal and Sheer Rocks

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

Deakin

La Yakel

Vaguely Royal

Struth

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17.05 – Sandringham Stakes

These Royal Ascot handicaps do not get any easier and unfortunately for me it is not the strongest of trends races, not against the sort of pointers I use anyway.

However, it should be noted that the market has been some sort of guide to this race, with 13/16 winners sent off 11/1 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger, 3/251, 25p. Having said that, between 2017-2020, three of the four races were won by 20/1+ shots, two trained by Charlie Fellowes, who isn’t represented this year. Over the last three renewals, those sent off 12/1+ are now 0/65, 6p. It would make all our jobs a little easier if the market continued to be some sort of guide, even though I do like the odd big priced poke in these races.

Ignoring the market for the moment, there are a couple of pointers which can help. Horses that had 2 or 3 runs in the previous 90 days, who’d won or placed at least once on their last two starts and who’d run at Class 3+ at least once in their career, would have found 13/15 of the UK/Irish trained winners (Wesley Ward winning this in 2017, not included in these stats)

IF that profile holds, we’re left with a long list of 12, but without any pointers to narrow it further… other than hoping the market is once again a guide. Those twelve…

Everlasting, Zaynab, Flight of Fancy, Fair Angellica, Battle Queen, Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, Arisaig, Soprano, Marcella, My Margie, Raknah

Looking at horses representing trainers who’ve won this race previously can also be useful…

John & Thady Gosden: Cat Ninja, Mrs Morrell, D Fawless, Strutting

Mark Johnston (now Charlie): Arisaig

Johnny Murtagh: Asian Daze

Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, Arisaig at the three horses who hit my trends profile and who represent yards who know how to win this race.

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Best of luck with any bets,

All the best,

Josh