Good Morning, Friend

Royal Ascot Day 3...

Close, but not quite close enough in The Royal Hunt Cup, I wasn’t far away from the winner at all, and evidently 7s-8s was just fine! Darn. One of you did email in saying you'd loaded up at 10s (evidently I should have got to work sooner!) and put me in my place on my stamina 'concerns', reeling off the breeding and dosage as to why he'd relish the trip. And so it proved, a very well done to that man.

Weld’s horse ran a stormer, very unlucky and would have been bang there with a clear passage, but that’s racing on the straight course for you. On this ground you don’t want to be too far back it seems. The Hughes horse was far too keen, game over. They'll be other days for him. It was great to see Jamie Spencer grab his straight track win, maybe his only one for the week, we shall see, but arguably job done, 16s>12s>5/1 SP. They knew. He must work with some Ryan rockets/the clock for them to be that confident.

Onwards… to what looks an impossible day of handicaps, and I don’t have time for any notes but as always some method to my madness (my full preview of 3.05 can be found on Geegeez)… once again some Ascot fun money being thrown around on Betfair (for me that’s £2s-5s), playing with profits from Day 1 for the rest of the week, where I’ll likely need one more winner for a profitable week for my selections, but then we’re not yet halfway! Jamie has boosted the coffers a bit also.

Horses listed in order of preference in said races and I’d just head to Betfair and get the best price you can, or BFSP…

15.05 – French Duke / Autumn Winter / Naval Force

17.05 – Volterra / Skukuza / Mickley

18.15 – Billyjoh / Dark Thirty

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The following content has been up on the blog since yesterday afternoon, as has been the case all week, I'll post Friday's later on...

STATS & TRENDS

Trainer/Jockey Combo ‘Qualifiers’

2.30 – Tropical Storm (AB/OM, 11/1 or shorter SP)

2.30 – Whistlejacket (AOB/RM, 10/1<)

3.05 – Gilded Warrior (WH/TM)

3.05 – Warda Jamila (AB/OM, 11/1<)

3.45 – Diamond Rain (CA/WB)

3.45 – Kalpana (AB/OM, 11/1<)

3.45 – Port Fairy (AOB/RM, 10/1<)

5.40 – Bellum Justum (AB/OM, 11/1<)

5.40 – Portland (AOB/RM, 10/1<0

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Jamie Spencer Straight Course

5.05 – Blue Lemons

6.15 – Rhoscolyn

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TRENDS…

3.05 Ascot – The King George V Stakes

• 16/16 were rated OR 95 or lower (0/38,10p rated higher, small numbers and the placed horses suggest that may fall sooner rather than later, only three runners this year OR96+)

• 14/14 (of those with a career win) had won at Class 4 level or higher

• 14/14 (of those with a career win) had won at least once on their last two starts

Applying those pointers would leave us a short list of six…

Going The Distance, Fouroneohfever, Gallantly, City Burglar, Warda Jamila and Naval Force

I should add two further horses, both rated 95 or lower, who’ve yet to win in their career, in the UK/Ireland, (my trends ignore form from other racing jurisdictions) … French Duke and Autumn Winter

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

Aidan O’Brien: Chantilly, Gallantly, Gasper De Lemos, Autumn Winter

Ralph Beckett: Going The Distance, Poniros, City Burglar

William Haggas: Glided Warrior

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17:05: Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

The trends profile for this is ‘so-so’ and the 16/16 and 15/16 stats don’t help narrow things down too much. I’m not sure a profile to be trusted but applying some of my trends from the report above would have found 11/16, and IF upholding, evidently a bigger If than usual, would point to a longer list of…

Air Commander, Mickley, Volterra,Skukuza, Cogitate, Follow Me, Mission to Moon, Monkey Island, Arctic Thunder, Cracking Gold, Cuban Tiger

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

Qirat, Kings Gamble, Safwan

Air Commander

Skukuza

Dashing Darcey, Mission to Moon

Involvement

Sir Les Patterson

Arctic Thunder

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18:15: Buckingham Palace Stakes

IF my eight 11/11 pointers hold in this race, we’re looking at a short-ish list of ten runners… (11/97 runners, 24p, +240 BFSP)

English Oak, Divine Libra, Gorak, Finns Charm, The Xo, Billyjoh, Dark Thirty, Mustajaab, Greatgadian, Maywake

Applying the 10/11 stats would point to 9/11 winners and IF upholding would point to a shortlist of four…

Divine Libra, Billyjoh, Greatgardian, Maywake

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

Koy Koy, Barader

Bopedro, Rhoscolyn, Summerghand, Alzahir

Dark Thirty, Tacarib Bay

Greatgadian

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As always, best of luck with any bets,

Thanks for reading,

Josh