Good Morning, Friend,

Today's 'January Trainer Qualifiers' are down below, with some of my own musings to ignore as you please!

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January Trainers

Today's qualifiers...

1.00 Heref – Leading Swoop (any, 14/1< best) 6/1

2.30 Heref – Grey Skies 6/1

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Hereford notes...

I’ve had a flick through the stats qualifiers above and the 1pm is an interesting contest – it is a C5 Conditional Jockeys Novice handicap hurdle, not the best of quality and the sort where anything can pop up and something may improve for the application of cash.

Leading Light – at 6s, the odds compilers don’t appear to be taking many chances to my eyes, but he is interesting on handicap debut. Robert Walford is 2/13,6p, +25 sp with handicap debutants in the last year, which caught the eye. He’s also booked the in-form Freddie Gingell, Colin Tizzard’s grandson, who’s 4/13,7p in the last 14 days, riding well.

I’ve watched his last few starts and there was a lot of promise in his Exeter effort, not far off them 2 out, not given a hard time, outpaced, plodding on. His Lingfield efforts a bit drab but it could be the softer ground has found him out – which it may well do again today. However, LTO when stepped up to 19f, Brendan Powell was very quiet on him, still travelling fine at the top of the hill but letting the others get away from him, a bit motionless, hands and heels up the straight. He jumped the last two as if he had plenty of energy left, giving them plenty of air, when many others were paddling. He’s hard to get a grip on and a shame he’s not a much bigger price, but maybe a reason for that. He has the sort of profile which is hard to dismiss, as he could take a big step forward now up against horses of similar ability, possibly returned RH, and if this ground rides better than Lingfield. They may have also been running him into peak fitness, coinciding with handicap debut.

It could be he’s just useless, and/or needs better ground, or more time, or fences, we shall see. He could win well, he could flounder.

This race may simply be about the in-form fav at 11/4, for all soft is a question. But he hasn’t done much wrong on recent starts and maybe his consistency/winning attitude will be more than enough.

I did want to flag Calidad of Charlie Longsdon’s, at 12s or so. He could be gone at the game but it’s just his 11th start, his first handicap hurdle, having been kept chasing the last five starts, across two yards. It could be he just doesn’t like the chasing game, Charlie has given him 50 days off, plenty of time to retrain him at home for hurdles, especially mentally.

The horse reappears with Charlie in decent form, 5/21, 9p, +10 in the last 14 days. When Billy Roberts rides, 5/18,10p in the last year, Charlie knowing when to deploy his useful claim.

Some of his maiden hurdle form reads well. Back in Nov 21 at Fontwell he ran a solid 2nd, keeping on over 18f. The winner, who beat him 7l, is now rated 138. The 3rd, won his next start, then ran a decent 2nd in a Chelt C3 handicap off 119. It is a run/form to suggest there’s something to work on back over hurdles, if his mind is right. He had a stop start time of it for Harry Whittingdon, although I think there was illness in the yard at times.

Maybe he’s just hard to keep sound, and no longer has the stomach for it. There is also a ground unknown, having been kept to ‘good’ on all starts – will he flounder, or have they been running him in the wrong conditions? Whatever he does here, he could be worth tracking if kept to hurdles and if/when it clicks again, in theory they have a very well handicapped horse on their hands.

2.30 – Grey Skies – this looks a trappy contest to my eyes, a novice chase, for all I've only a brief look. He’s a former 3m point winner on soft, this just his 2nd chase start, having done fairly well over hurdles. I wouldn’t want to dismiss him just yet after that Carlisle return, maybe he needed it. I don’t know whether this drop to 16f will help or not, maybe McCain wants some 2 mile pace to help improve the speed of his jumping technique/mind, before being stepped back up.

However, everything in here has some sort of question to answer, and a big run wouldn’t be a shock. I suppose the Jane Williams fav didn’t do much wrong LTO, impressive, for all wasn’t beating much, but he’s in form. Venetia’s has spent too long over hurdles for me to want to take a short price, i’d rather watch for now. But he could go well. A fitness unknown for the Greenhall horse, but she may blast out in front and take some catching, very experienced pointer. Hard to be too dogmatic, but hopefully McCain’s can do better than his two yesterday, but who knows. It's not exactly a target track of his.

Do with that lot as you please! Whatever they do, the odd stat to note down for the future.

Good luck with any bets,

Josh

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