Good Morning, Friend

I hope you enjoyed last week's Festival action - it had everything, and thankfully I was able to chip in with four winners on the blog from my target races, for a profit of around +36 points. As always it was tough going, including a blank on Thursday where this moron didn't tip an Irish horse!

But that's around +180 points during 'Festival Week' since 2015, which isn't too bad. Anyway, it's over for another year and I've yet to get stuck in and spot any potential 'horses to follow', which I'll try and do in the coming days.

Martin Whittle won Friday's tipping comp with +33 points, and I need to send him his £30 cash prize. We also had 40 RTP Syndicate owners enter a daily competition, won by Doug with +18 points or so. I think only 7 entries ended up in profit, which is an indication of how tough Cheltenham can be.

Moving on... and I'm about to head to Plumpton to watch our Shandancer do his thing. They'll be 16 owners in attendance, all with full O&T access including food, so it promises to be a decent day out as always.

We’re on a discovery mission as we move him up in trip to what is now 3m 2f after rail-movements, 3m may have been better but it was the best race option available at this time – there’s also some decent prize money up for grabs and given this is open to horses rated up to 122, we’ve done well to turn up with the top rated off 113.

We will learn a lot today. I’ve no doubt he’ll enjoy the softer ground, just a case of what he does beyond 2m4f really and whether this slower tempo, and being able to lob along in his comfort zone for a longer period, makes the difference. His efforts for us so far suggest he will just keep galloping, but we will find out today. He's yet to be out the first 5 for us in his four hurdle starts to date. His form reads well enough at this sort of level and if he got back to his Huntingdon effort, and did see out the trip, he’s good enough to mix it with the two above him I think.

The fav does look strong, he will just keep galloping for all is a difficult ride, but is honest and does stay. Val Dancer has a few more questions on the stamina front but he’s unexposed and could improve for it. Given their form/profiles, they’ll be nothing lost of we do stay but chase those two home. Hopefully he does stay as it will open up options, for all 2m4-5f on proper soft may be what he really wants, and we’ll get him winning at some point. His Plumpton and Huntingdon efforts more than good enough to win handicap hurdles if well placed by us and it's always fun turning up knowing he usually gives his best and runs his race. We will find out plenty today and hopefully he runs his usual honest race and has us excited turning for home.

I did have a flick through the cards and have flagged three others that caught my eyes, to do with as you please. A couple of them are a bit weak at the moment, but we'll see if that means anything or not! At least they're a bigger price..

Today’s musings…

2.50 Wetherby – Gallic Geordie – 11/4

3.50 Market R – Large Action – 8/1-7/1

4.10 Plumpton – Felton Bellevue – 11/4-3/1

Notes…

Gallic Geordie – I think this one has the best recent form on offer in here and a repeat of his Newbury run two starts back could be enough to take this. I will blame the ground LTO where he was rushed off his feet from flag fall, but there should be no excuse on that front here today. Two starts back he chased home a thoroughly unexposed chase and had Not Available behind him, who then won his next two. His runs before that were not bad either. I won’t sit here and say 11/4 is value, I wouldn’t mind bigger, but thought I’d mention him in dispatches. He’s usually held up also and I’d usually want a bigger price on those sorts, as you need more luck and the jockeys judgement to be spot on. However, if running to his best I could see him putting this lot to the sword, we shall see.

Large Action – one at a juicy price and I thought he could be interesting here – he will relish every drop of rain that’s fallen, the softer the better. This horse is a unit and 4 starts back won as he pleased on chase debut around Market Rasen over 20f, in soft. That may not have been the best of races, but he couldn’t have been more impressive. I think valid excuses since then – he ran 12 days later at Sedgy (possibly too quickly) but his profile suggests he doesn’t like going LH and that track wouldn’t have suited him. He was up in class also. His next run was decent enough, 3rd of 9, and he’d have been closer but for walking through 2 out, on ground that may have had too much ‘good’ in it. The winner and the 4th both won their next starts, so some substance there. He then ran here 28 days ago on Good and never looked that happy but whacked one down the back on the final circuit which appeared to do for him. I like the booking of Bryony Frost, she’s 9/27, 14p all rides around here and he’s the sort she may give plenty of confidence and coax around. The one niggle is whether this 2m2f trip is too short, I’d have been happier with an extra 2f or so. However, if he can jump out and hold a position, and jump to his best, I thought he looked overpriced. There’s still room in this mark when it all drops right and that could be here, in a race where they all have some questions to answer. Hopefully LTO hasn’t knocked his confidence but I’m hopeful of a big run. I’d have him a bit shorter here.

Felton Bellevue – another at the tighter end of the market and maybe he isn’t overpriced but I like his profile/form in this line up. LTO was his first run after a wind op, which appeared to work, and a chance he comes on from it. He was beaten by an in-form rival that day, for all he couldn’t follow up NTO, but could appreciate this return to softer and a bit further. 4 starts back on seasonal return he ran well, beaten by Atakan, who would win the Sussex National around here two starts later. The form of his Market Rasen and Wincanton efforts last Feb read well also, and to my eyes I think his best efforts are just ahead of what these have done, so far. Harry B rides this place well (9/34, 15p, +12 last 5 years) and Ben Case’s team appear in ok form, 2/11,4p last 30 days. The horse has course experience, will race prominently, jumps well and I think will just keep going, even under this weight. Gold Clermont could pick up the pieces if i’ve got mine wrong, the others have a few too many question for me although 1st Blinkers may help Lakeside Lad, who ran ok LTO and may step forward from that, but at a similar price to mine, not for me.

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As always, best of luck with any bets,

All the best,

Josh