Good Morning, Friend
3.15 Haydock's -Old Newton Cup
Thankfully I made it up and down Mount Snowdon, my first ever mountain trek, and the feet/legs have just about survived in one piece. It was enjoyable, with some incredible views. I would recommend having a go if you can.
Onto the racing...
I've had a flick through Haydock's big handicap... they could get some heavy thunderstorms late morning so who knows what the ground could be come this race, as frustratingly it can change quickly at Haydock. As such, probably best to be cautious.
The Trends...
My profile for this isn't a stand-out one, but 12/15 had a highest class run in career at either G1 level or no higher than C2. 11/15 also had 17 or fewer career starts. Those two pointers have found 12/15 winners (12/94 runners, 33p, +95 BFSP) and IF upholding, always an if, would point to four...
La Yakel, Cumulonimnus, Graphite and Woottonsun
14/15 have returned 14/1 or shorter SP, which may help guide also.
Trainers... Andrew Balding is the only handler represented who's won this in the previous 15 renewals. He runs Scampi and Teumessias Fox in this.
Notes...
La Yakel has been well found, Haggas in decent form and he's 6/16,8p when teaming up with Danny Tudhope at Haydock in the last five years. He potentially looks the most progressive in the race but is too short for me I think.
Looking at my trends and the trainer pointers... Cumulonimbus and Teumessias Fox look worth some interest EW support to my eyes. The former arrives on a hat-trick, has course form, races prominently and looks solid to my eyes. He won't mind any rain either. Richard Kingscote continues to ride this place well... 6/22, 9p around here in the last year.
Teumessias Fox represents the in-form Andrew Balding team and higher weighted horses have done just fine in this. He looked ultra-progressive before Ascot, where he didn't run well. But you can excuse any horse a poor run during that week I think and a chance the ground was too quick for him. He won't mind a drop of rain here. If he returns to form, I think he could be in the mix here, if this doesn't come too soon after that Ascot effort. We shall see.
I will mention Wootton'sun who to my eyes looks a big EW price at 25/1+. He could race prominently also and arrives in decent form, another who may not mind any rain. He does need to step up but along with Cumulonimnus could race up there also, and provided those two don't kill each other up top, could help improve their chances of being in the mix if sensible. He may lack the class but has a light weight, should race prom and looks like he'll just keep galloping.
I'm due some duds after my Ascot efforts but with any luck they all may run well enough for some fun interest, 5 places available with most.
As always, good luck with any bets,
Josh
