Hello, Friend,
Today I've had a look at the 3pm Haydock, with my thoughts down below for anyone interested.
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They had 5/6 winners last time, which was a tad frustrating, but the information provided for personal bets has been going well, especially their 'nap' race, which has found the winner for the last 4 entries. Numerous forecasts/tricasts also.
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3.00 Haydock Preview
Jimmy The Digger  – 17/2 (gen)
This horse has looked one to keep onside the last twice and I was desperate to see what he could do on his first go over a staying trip of 3m4f. At 17/2 I just had to have him onside, win, lose or tailed off. His last two runs have been decent, indicating he’s an in-form and progressive horse, a late maturing type who may now be coming into his own. On his seasonal return he ran down Anightinlambourn at HQ, doing all his best work late up that hill and hitting the line hard. I thought he’d uphold the form NTO but got that wrong, on quicker ground, he was with them turning in but didn’t quite have the pace as they got racing, Ben Pauling’s mare reversing the form. Again, he stayed on well up the hill, the front four clear. He had two Irish raiders in front of him there who have both franked the form, Elliot’s Punitive UR in the Troytown next start, before than winning the Porterstown at Fairyhouse, staying on powerfully after the last. The 3rd, Malina Girl, then hacked up dropped in trip before then running ok in a mares G2. So, the form has a more than solid look to it. He looks progressive to my eyes and the expectation is that this trip unlocks more.
The question is whether the ground will unlock more – his front knee action suggests he should be better on softer ground, and certainly ran just fine on it last season when chasing home Bobhopeornohope (who as we’ve seen this season is a more than solid Ludlow yardstick) for all Ludlow soft isn’t the same as Haydock soft. It could be he flounders in the mud but at the price I have to play, as there’s a strong chance Daly has just been running him on the wrong ground and he relishes it. He’s a big strong horse who has no weight on his back here really, not with Alice Steven’s excellent 7lb claim, and she knows him very well. She’s 4/10,5p when riding for Daly in the last year. He did travel well LTO and jumped superbly, so fingers crossed.
Henry Daly is in fine form also, 3/7 in the last 14 days the horse having been freshened up since his last start.
So, I’m hopeful of a monster run here and think he could have a bit to play with in conditions, for all proper soft is an unknown. On all known evidence he will be winning another staying handicap chase, I just hope it’s today and/or I’m on when he does.
Of the rest…
I was on Morning Spirit LTO but that was the race/course to catch him I think. Haydock is a fair jumping test and that’s the niggle with him as he can brush through the odd one. I’m not convinced he wants a 3m4f slog either for all it’s more an unknown. Certainly Jimmy’s recent form has a stronger look to it than Spirit’s, but he has no ground questions. At 7s I decided to leave him, but he could look dangerous to 3 out, if his jumping holds, and then we shall see what he does.
Enqarde is interesting back here at 9s and I nearly chucked him in for 1 point at 9s. He did me a favour around here last season over 26f, when thumping Remastered (that was before he had a wind op or two and started finishing his races this season) but evidently that was an impressive performance. He does like Haydock and this mark is workable. The yard are also in much better form than they have been, 3/13,7p in the last 14 days – Newland’s string could be worth keeping an eye on more generally as they have had a virus, plenty will have been running sick, and some will bounce back from nowhere, having left drab efforts well behind – worth noting for horses next summer also, plenty of his summer jumpers ran below form this summer, and will bounce back. Hopefully they’re all now healthier. Said issues may have affected this one the last twice for all can forgive any horse a so-so run around Aintree, even with the modified fences. He did make the odd error and didn’t really have the pace for The Becher. This isn’t as competitive and he’s back at a course he likes. 3m4f in soft+ is a question, 3m2f may well be his optimum. He has had the odd issue with his wind, maybe extreme tests catch him out. In any case, I could see him bouncing back here, but a niggle that he’s not yet in form, and I think there could be stronger stayers. I could be wrong on all fronts and he now demolishes this trip/ground combo.
McCain’s is hard to weigh up but maybe ground/trip combo will unlock more, but will he have the class? Hold That Taught has jumping issues, enough clangers for me to leave him at 9/2 anyway, and if he puts it all together around here, fair play. I’m not sure Good Boy Bobby is a 3m4f slogger, with a big weight burden also.
Danilo DAiry is interesting I suppose for all first start of the season and he was injured when last seen. Ground and trip won’t be a problem, a class question to some degree, his last win in a so-so C4, but he did bolt up. There are a few unknowns but he could give this a good go, I wasn’t sure what to expect really but it could be that he’s a1 for this test with nothing on his back ,he is being nibbled at. Of the bigger odds he could be one I’ve got wrong
I thought Samuel Jackson may be too slow for around here/C2 level, for all he stays well. I’d want to see a bit more from Sams Adventure before wading in and I’d like to see the CP return. He didn’t run too badly on his return LTO. I didn’t think All About Joe would be good enough and he has a ground question – he does stay well and may keep going off his low weight, for all they keep riding him too far back and he may be left with too much to do – these fences could find him out also. The other two have a few more questions also and were not for me in conditions. I’m not sure Deise wants it this soft and he looks a bit out of form, for all he stays. Niceandeasy doesn’t jump well enough for me and may lack the class.
Pace – Danilo DAiry may go forward/try to lead, Samuel J will be up there if quick enough. I’m hopeful Jimmy will be able to track the pace, lobbing along. Morning Spirit may not be far away either, the rest slotting in.
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As always, good luck with any bets,
All the best,
Josh
