Good Morning, Friend

Galway Hurdle Tips & Trends below...

Watching Ash Tree Meadow gallop to victory was generally enjoyable, having got a flyer at the start, he never looked back. The loose horse caught his eye a few times and at times I wondered if he was doing too much, but that ability to dictate and ping every fence helped, as did the excellent 7lb claim of a jockey to follow, especially over fences - D Gilligan, remember the name (at least while he's claiming!). I suspect Gordon may try and protect the claim as best he can for some bigger handicap pots, time will tell. The horse clearly bounces off better ground and there could be a bit more to come in handicap, especially around tighter tracks. He still looked a bit green mentally, unless that's just him. Final Orders was very weak after I sent him out, hitting 30s at one point on betfair exchange - the market appeared to know he was going to run below par, smacking a fence early not helping, but never really travelling that well. One to keep an eye on as 2m4-6f could unlock a bit more at some stage.

Onto today, and again I'll be leaving Goodwood alone I think. We may now have drying tacky ground, although there's fresh ground around the inside today, and the cut-away has been moved back, so it will be interesting who sticks to the far side and whether that's an advantage, or will they still come to the stands side.

In the 4.45, Gary Moore has turned out Novus again quickly, after her efforts 2 days ago. On another day I think she could have won that race and shaped as if still well handicapped. This race doesn't look any easier but the ground is softer again, which will help, and she's now drawn on the inside, hopefully Tom can be a bit handier and he may need some luck. I did have a beer money on at 5s last night, just in case. My head tells me that is plenty short enough, this morning's 4s even more so.

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To Galway...

3.55 - Keep In Touch - 9/2

Before I get onto the main event, I flicked through the Geegeez 'report angles report' in search of any more 'starting point stats' - Dermot used to dominate this meeting back in the day, and it looks like he's found the key to Galway success once again more generally - his record with Chris Hayes at the course in the last year is 4/10,8p, +21 SP.  

The yard are in form and she's one of the few in here with proven ability at this class. They've given her an 89 day break and drop back from 10f to 7f. She won over this CD as a 2YO, and they also reach for a 1st Visor - it's an interesting move - maybe she won't have the pace at all now, but it's not impossible they switch things up, try and blast her out prominent and see if anything can get too her - she may do too much too soon in the headgear, or travel at a speed beyond her comfort cruising pace, and then fall in a hole. Still, at 9/2, given the above and the oppo (looks a so so/open race) I thought I'd take the chance that she could stamp her relative class on these.

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5.05 - The Galway Hurdle

#1 - Party Central - 14/1 - EW (as many places as possible)

#2 - Cash Back - 25/1 - EW (ditto)

#3 - Tudor City - 161 - EW (ditto)

You can find my trends profile, shortlist, trainer pointers etc HERE >>>

A strict application of my 15/15 trends fired out a shortlist of: Party Central, Jesse Evans, Da Capo Glory, Cash Back

I doubt this race is as easy as that, but you never know!

Party Central - arrives in form from the flat, however if she runs as she did two starts back over hurdles, she won't be placing here. However, she'll enjoy this drying ground and looks to me as if she could relish a big field cavalry charge. She has to be delivered late but I hope could cruise around here. I wouldn't want her drifting out too much from this price. Gordon is 0/30,7p in this race so far, 0/12,4p when 14/1 or shorter SP but has gone very close a couple of times and given his power, only a matter of time. I suspect most of his are more staying types and you need to be sharp enough for this CD over hurdles, but I thought on balance she was worth a go at the odds. Mares have won this, and at her very very best I think she'd be in the top 5/6 at worst.

Cash Back - A Willie Mullins outsider but one who's on my trends list. No 11YO has won this in recent years but only four have tried and two have placed. He isn't over raced for his age and having failed to jump well as a chaser, they've gone back hurdling.  The main 'way in' for this bet, at the odds, was the pace/pace maps - there's every chance he tries to make all and gets a relatively easy time of it on the front end - if he doesn't and it's a contested pace after 2f, then I could be in trouble. He's enthusiastic, gets a decent 5lb claimer on now which may help also, (11/33,15p when riding for Willie) and I thought a chance he just blasts out. He's got the form and the mark to stay there - in reality, I suspect something may collar him late, but as long as no more than 4-5 horses do so, the EW return is solid enough. And you never know. It will be an entertaining watch anyway!

Tudor City - he's a late addition, I started writing some notes below as a 'danger horse' and thought sod it, my head tells me he could run another stormer here. He's going for his third victory in this race and is on last year's mark, although 2lb more as his jockey claims 5lb and not 7lb now. This has probably been the plan ever since then and he had the perfect prep with a win on the flat at The Curragh when last seen, so arrives in good heart. IF he runs his race, he just can't be out the first 5 here for me. Younger legs may have him, or Cash Back will be long gone (we can but dream) but he looks sure to run his race. A chance they don't go quick enough and he's outpaced but he could achieve the fairytale result here.

Of the rest...

I looked at Jesse Evans, but has been beaten twice in this previously, including a 2nd last year - he's 8lb higher than that effort and I just thought something would likely be better treated. Maybe he's progressed again but that was the reasoning for leaving, for all a Top 5/6 effort no shock at all.

He'd be mildly irritating as would Da Capo Glory - I've concluded he may lack the early tactical pace here and could just get a bit too far back. If he can hold a more prominent position then he will run a big race, but he could need them to go ultra hard here and all fall in a hole in front of him - that's not impossible of course but it does look like further suits - still, I wouldn't be shocked if he could run into a place, but I thought would be left with too much to do. Just the sort I'll throw £2 at on the machine last minute 'just in case' ! :)

I have been through them all and there wasn't much else at the prices that could tempt me in. The ones that had the most attention are all mentioned above.

Willie's fav has been well found, 4YOs 0/19 in this but I doubt many of his class have tried. Still, at 7/2, I have to oppose in a race like this and if he dots up, fair play.

So, those three darts will do for me for a bit of fun. I wouldn't be as bullish as with the Plate yesterday, but easy to say that after a win! There's plenty of method to the madness and I've done the work, so fingers crossed.

As always, GL with any bets,

All the best,

Josh

p.s Sam Darby's 'Free Tips Friday' post will go up this evening at 8pm - it will either contain his thoughts for tomorrow, or a holding note saying he'll be looking at a race on Saturday. He's in fine form, another +30 or so points yesterday. He did say he was good from July onwards, and so it's proving so far!