Good Morning, Friend,

The Galway Plate - 6.40pm - Tips and Trends below...

The less said about my three Goodwood darts the better! Nothing much to shout about in the sprint handicap, for all it looked like those up the middle were running in treacle, as Lord Riddiford won 'his race' up the rail, drifting from a morning 7/2 to 8/1. Urgh. Maybe Dream Composer is now just out of form, or the capper now has him. Whenthedealinsdone was poor and hasn't run his race, again, appearing just out of sorts. Given previous form and his mark, he will be thrown in 'if' every returning to his best of last season.

Outbreak - he cruised along for a time, having me excited to 2f out, for all the fact he'd lost two legs in the market pre-race niggled at me, and so it proved, as he found little for pressure - maybe he wasn't himself in the pre-lims, and was buzzy enough in the race I suppose. It could be he hasn't stayed that stiffer 10.5f, hasn't stayed it in soft, or he just didn't pick up in the ground. I'm convinced there's something in him on turf over 8f-10f - of course he could just be out of sorts also! Previously flagged Novus ran well in the fillies handicap, not having the best of trips round, appearing to prove she stays 8f - it looks like soft is very important to her, and while she may not be missed, ran as if a horse who's still well handicapped in such conditions.

I haven't bothered with Goodwood today. They could get any amount of rain, who knows what the ground will be etc, and for now I'll steer clear.

There are four potential qualifiers against my jockey stats - I haven't looked the horses as yet and whether soft/heavy will suit them, probably plenty of educated guesswork there. Still, we shall see...

1.50 - Tagabawa

2.25 - Breege

3.00 - Big Evs / Barnwell Boy

4.45 - Sirona

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I've focussed on Galway...

Galway Plate Fancies

#1 - Ash Tree Meadow - 10/1

#2 - Final Orders - 10/1-11/1 

My trends, trainer pointers and trends shortlist went up yesterday afternoon, and if you'd like to use them to help pick your own winners out, you can read HERE >>>

Applying my 15/15 stats/trends and looking at those rated from 1lb lower up to 7lb higher than last start, would point to 14/15 (14/106, 34p, +220 BFSP) and IF upholding (always an If of course) would point to a list of seven…

Final Orders, Ash Tree Meadow, Hollow Games, Visionarian, Gabby’s Cross, Andy Dufresne, Lieutenant Command

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Ash Tree Meadow - 10s looked fair for last year's 4th, running a massive race as an inexperienced novice, jumping well, racing wide most of the way. He flattened a bit in the final 100 yards or so and maybe isn't an assured stayer, but he's a year older and had a proper break before his two prep runs for this. No doubt this has been the plan for some time and horses who've run in this once previously, and lost, have gone on to win it. He's only 1lb higher than that run, gets an even bigger weight swing with Hewick, and also gets the useful 7lb claim of D Gilligan.

He's a jockey to keep an eye on in Ireland... 8/32,15p +48 SP all chase rides, 7/23,13p +23 when riding for Gordon Elliot, who I think is his boss, and evidently uses his claim to good effect, especially with his chasers.

Gordon knows how to win this race and hopefully the horse can track the pace as he did last year, not too far back. He's a very good jumper at his best, 3/7,6p as a chaser so far. With any luck the extra year on his back helps him storm to the line, 7YOs having much the best record in this. They haven't had nearly as much rain as forecast last night and with a drying day, this ground could be fairly decent come race time, which would be ideal.  I thought he'd be thereabouts and was worth a go at double figures- we'll see what he does in the final furlong. He arrives in form after a recent spin over hurdles and on the flat, where he stayed on well to the line.

Final Orders - another 7YO who'll appreciate the lack of rain and the drying ground. He's one who could race prominently also I hope, which is generally the place to be around here, and avoiding trouble. He won off 140 at the Dublin Racing Festival in February, over 17f, staying on powerfully to the line. He's 9lb higher here but the hope is that a return to a more staying trip, which he's unexposed over as a chaser, could unlock more. He hasn't done much over fences since Feb but has had excuses. The ground went against him at Cheltenham, for all he looked outpaced at times also, and stayed on into 5th. He fell in The Topham, before a break and his return on the flat last time, when winning. So, he arrives in fine form and i'm excited to see what he can do back up in trip, on decent ground. Maybe the handicapper has him, but this test will tell us, and at double figures, given his previous progressive profile, i'd rather pay to find out.

Gavin has booked Sean Flanagan who rides this place well, especially over fences - 8/29, 12p +22 in recent years, 4/12,5p when in handicap chases. That's worth noting for the rest of this week and moving forwards.

Fingers crossed both of those can bounce out and race handy. We'll see what they do turning for home and whether something is better treated.

Those were the two for me. But the fav is 5/1 and its 8/1 and bigger the rest, which tells you how competitive this looks on paper.

The market has generally been some sort of guide, 13/15 winners sent off 16/1 or shorter SP, not too many monsters fall in, for all the odd one of course.

If Gabby's Cross wasn't usually held up, I may have been closer to him also - if he comes from further back here and storms to victory, so be it, or if they change tactics, but I've stuck with what I hope are two more prominent runners, esp on drying ground. He could run well though. Hollow Games interested me to some degree but I made a judgement on his jockey, whose chase stats are not the best, but maybe he doesn't ride many good ones and I'm being harsh. Still, at 8s or so that was enough for me.

Kilcruit has been well found and maybe given how he won at Punchy off 148, they wish they'd have saved him for this. Of course, he may still laugh at a mark of 160 in a handicap, and thanks to Hewick his racing weight is ok. He does need more however and hopefully isn't in the same form having run so-so in France, but at 5s I'll just have to watch him waltz home unbacked, as I'm not sure he should be shorter than that. It is Mullins of course.

Anyway, they're my two pokes for interest at a price.

Good luck with all bets today as always,

Josh